Fed press conference · Kevin Warsh
Wed Oct 28, Saidwire live coverage archive
https://saidwire.com/archive/fed-oct

STORY (final version)

Warsh Says Fed Will Cut to 8 Meetings a Year, With a Strategy-Only Meeting in 2027
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh announced the schedule change after the FOMC voted 10-2 to hold rates, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee will hold eight meetings a year starting next fall, with one meeting in 2027 devoted exclusively to monetary policy strategy, with no vote on the federal funds rate and no policy statement. He announced the change at his press conference after the committee voted 10-2 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. Cook and Hammack dissented, preferring to raise the range by a quarter of a percentage point, according to the Fed's statement.

SCHEDULE CHANGE
Warsh said the committee had "decided on a change in our FOMC schedule." In 2028, he said, he expects two meetings dedicated to strategy discussions and six for setting policy. The next policy decision is scheduled for Dec. 9, the last meeting of 2026.

STATEMENT KEEPS INFLATION LANGUAGE, UPGRADES GROWTH
The Fed's statement said economic activity "is expanding at a strong pace," a step up from the "solid pace" in September's statement. It repeated that uncertainty "remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments" and that "inflation remains elevated." Warsh read those passages at the news conference, including that productivity growth is strong and capital investment robust.
The statement dropped September's line that a rate action would support a timelier return to 2 percent inflation. In its place it said that "the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal." It also repeated: "The Committee will deliver price stability."

OUTSIDE REACTION
Commentators on Bloomberg's broadcast described the chair's communication as vague and said he gave little guidance on the committee's reaction function. Several noted that he did not say why the committee held rather than raised rates, though they differed on how far he addressed the question. Those assessments came from commentators, not from Warsh.

BULLETINS
2:00:28 PM ET  FED HOLDS RATES AT 3.75-4%, 10-2 VOTE; COOK, HAMMACK DISSENT FOR QUARTER-POINT HIKE
2:01:39 PM ET  FED STATEMENT: ECONOMY EXPANDING AT STRONG PACE, UPGRADED FROM SOLID
2:05:09 PM ET  WARSH: DID NOT EXPECT COOK DISSENT, HER RECENT SPEECHES SHOWED CONCERN
2:32:27 PM ET  WARSH: THIRD-QUARTER GDP APPEARS TO HAVE GROWN ABOVE 3%, LED BY CONSUMER SPENDING
2:34:02 PM ET  WARSH: FINANCIAL CONDITIONS TIGHTER BUT HE WON'T CALL THEM TIGHT
2:35:27 PM ET  WARSH: ENERGY, RELATED PRICES HIGHER AGAIN; FED MUST STOP INCREASES BROADENING
2:36:52 PM ET  WARSH: FOMC TO CUT TO 8 MEETINGS A YEAR; 2027 MEETING TO SKIP RATE VOTE, STATEMENT
2:38:12 PM ET  WARSH: PRICE STABILITY IS NOT ABOUT A FIXED DATE ON A CALENDAR
2:40:57 PM ET  WARSH: INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, SWAPS-BASED COMPENSATION MOVING IN RIGHT DIRECTION
2:42:12 PM ET  WARSH: FED HAS NOT YET ACHIEVED PRICE STABILITY, 'BUT WE'RE WORKING ON IT'
2:43:47 PM ET  WARSH: HE DOES NOT PLAN TO SUBMIT A RATE PROJECTION DOT; 18 COLLEAGUES DO
2:45:12 PM ET  WARSH: NO POLICY DECISION OR STATEMENT EXPECTED AT 2027, 2028 STRATEGY MEETINGS
2:46:32 PM ET  WARSH: FIVE FED TASK FORCES HAVE YEAR-END DEADLINE; HE HAS SEEN NO FINAL REPORT
2:47:52 PM ET  WARSH: FED PRODUCTIVITY, JOBS TASK FORCE TO HOLD NOV 16 FIELD HEARING
2:50:37 PM ET  WARSH: THERE IS NO SOFT OR IMPLICIT INFLATION TARGET, ONLY PRICE STABILITY
2:52:12 PM ET  WARSH: MARKET INTEREST RATES HAVE CORRELATED STRONGLY WITH OIL PRICES THIS YEAR
2:53:12 PM ET  WARSH: OIL FUTURES PRICES HAVE RISEN OVER LAST SEVERAL WEEKS; FED TAKING NOTE
2:54:57 PM ET  WARSH: HE WAS SKEPTICAL RATES WOULD NOT AFFECT AI; RATES 'GET IN THE CRACKS'
2:56:17 PM ET  WARSH: CAPEX STRENGTH IS BROADENING, NOT CONFINED TO NARROW POCKETS OF ECONOMY
2:57:47 PM ET  WARSH: POLITICS PLAYED NO ROLE IN RATE DECISION; NONE RAISED IN TWO-DAY MEETING
2:59:07 PM ET  WARSH: DOES NOT BELIEVE IN FORWARD GUIDANCE ABSENT CRISIS; WON'T PREJUDGE NEXT MEETING
3:00:27 PM ET  WARSH: BALANCE SHEET TASK FORCE RECOMMENDATION TO FOMC LIKELY EARLY IN FIRST QUARTER
3:03:17 PM ET  WARSH: MOST COLLEAGUES DON'T JUDGE ECONOMY RUNNING TOO HOT OR TOO STRONG
3:04:42 PM ET  WARSH: FINANCIAL CONDITIONS HAVE TIGHTENED SINCE LAST MEETING; POLICY IS WORKING
3:20:41 PM ET  WARSH: ONLY ONE MORE CPI REPORT BEFORE DECEMBER MEETING; LITTLE TO LEARN BEFORE THEN
3:31:09 PM ET  WARSH: FOMC SCHEDULE CHANGE, EIGHT MEETINGS PER YEAR STARTING NEXT FALL
3:31:37 PM ET  WARSH: 2027 STRATEGY-ONLY FOMC MEETING TO HAVE NO RATE VOTE, NO STATEMENT
3:31:37 PM ET  WARSH: EXPECTS TWO STRATEGY-DEDICATED FOMC MEETINGS IN 2028, SIX POLICY-SETTING

POSTS (quotes verbatim; each shows when the words were said and when we drafted it)

Fed holds rates steady at 3.75%-4%. Vote 10-2.

FOMC statement, released 2:00 PM ET.
  said 2:00:20 PM ET · drafted 2:00:20 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said third-quarter GDP "appears to have brought an even more rapid advance," with consumer spending likely growing above 3% and business investment likely rising at about a double-digit pace.
  said 2:32:20 PM ET · drafted 2:33:14 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said overall financial conditions are tighter since the September rate increase but "I'm unwilling and unable to call them tight." He said credit has tightened for some businesses and households.
  said 2:33:52 PM ET · drafted 2:34:06 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, "inflation is too high." He said energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks, and that the committee observed but was not surprised by bouts of market volatility.
  said 2:34:42 PM ET · drafted 2:34:53 PM ET

"We've made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require and we have shown our willingness to act," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, ending his opening statement at a news conference after the FOMC held rates steady.
  said 2:35:17 PM ET · drafted 2:35:41 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that starting in 2027, "one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy, with neither a vote on the Federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated."
  said 2:35:57 PM ET · drafted 2:36:57 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, asked about the outlook for the next rate move, said ensuring price stability "is not about some fixed individual date on a calendar." He said it is also not about "some isolated data point."
  said 2:38:07 PM ET · drafted 2:39:16 PM ET

Warsh: “We doubled down on the 2% inflation target.”

Warsh on what the Fed has done on its inflation target since he arrived
  said 2:39:12 PM ET · drafted 2:39:16 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on the Fed's 2 percent inflation goal: "If you think that we're tolerating some inflation target somewhere in the twos, let us disabuse you of it."
  said 2:39:07 PM ET · drafted 2:40:16 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, on inflation: "You haven't achieved price stability, you're right about that, but we're working on it." He cited "nearly six years of inflation above target."
  said 2:40:52 PM ET · drafted 2:41:18 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, "I've got 18 quite independent colleagues," in response to a question about his colleagues. He said anyone in the FOMC meeting room the past two days "would come to believe that to be true."
  said 2:43:12 PM ET · drafted 2:43:26 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said: "Don't plan on submitting a dot but the 18 of them do." He said he does not submit a projection to the dot plot and rejected the idea that he sends messages to committee members.
  said 2:43:27 PM ET · drafted 2:45:28 PM ET

Warsh: “You would let the last six years of inflation above the Fed's target usually well above the Fed's target you'd let that continue so that's the most important thing we can do.”

Asked about the Fed's mandate and how it intends to fulfill it
  said 2:45:22 PM ET · drafted 2:45:32 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, asked what he could preview on AI, data or balance sheets: "These five task forces are hard at work." He said he has "scarcely seen" a final report and gave the groups a year-end deadline.
  said 2:45:57 PM ET · drafted 2:46:36 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said findings from the Fed's five task forces, including one on the balance sheet, are "unlikely to find their way into this policy conjunction," saying FOMC members are consumers of those ideas.
  said 2:47:07 PM ET · drafted 2:47:23 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed's productivity and jobs task force will hold a field hearing, saying: "On November sixteenth the productivity and jobs task force will be doing a field hearing."
  said 2:47:27 PM ET · drafted 2:48:28 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to respond when a reporter asked whether he agrees with comments from public officials. "I'm not gonna be responding to to quotes from public officials," Warsh said.
  said 2:49:22 PM ET · drafted 2:49:33 PM ET

"We just came out of a heck of a family fight," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said of the FOMC meeting. The committee voted 10-2 to hold rates; Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase.
  said 2:49:32 PM ET · drafted 2:50:14 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, asked about a soft inflation target: "There's no soft inflation target." He said the target is price stability, 2 percent as measured by PCE.
  said 2:50:32 PM ET · drafted 2:51:19 PM ET

"They go to the gas station too and they see that prices are up," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, on consumers' near-term inflation expectations. He said he would not say oil prices have not gone up.
  said 2:50:57 PM ET · drafted 2:52:14 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he was skeptical of a view that interest rate increases would have little effect on AI investment because investors expect such different returns: "I was skeptical of that view."
  said 2:54:17 PM ET · drafted 2:54:29 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said interest rates "get in the cracks," affecting "directly or indirectly almost everything." He said he does not believe the technology sector is divorced from the rest of the economy.
  said 2:54:22 PM ET · drafted 2:55:30 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, "politics played no role in the decision." Asked about the FOMC's hold, he said he spent two days with colleagues and "didn't hear a reference to politics."
  said 2:56:17 PM ET · drafted 2:56:31 PM ET

Warsh: “I don't believe in forward guidance.”

Asked about support for another rate hike this year; blackout ends Friday
  said 2:57:22 PM ET · drafted 2:57:27 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he does not believe in forward guidance "absent exigent circumstances absent a crisis." He cited the 2008 financial crisis as a period when such guidance was helpful.
  said 2:57:27 PM ET · drafted 2:57:48 PM ET

Recommendations from the Fed's balance sheet task force will go to the FOMC "probably early in the first quarter," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, adding, "don't hold me exactly to that timing."
  said 3:00:07 PM ET · drafted 3:00:29 PM ET

"It is unlikely to have any material effect on this policy conjuncture," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said of possible changes to the Fed's balance sheet that follow the review by its task force.
  said 3:00:27 PM ET · drafted 3:01:30 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed does not have perfect foresight about how markets will react to its rate move. "We don't have perfect foresight on what financial markets are going to do with it," he said.
  said 3:01:32 PM ET · drafted 3:02:32 PM ET

"Is the economy running too hot is the economy running too strong that isn't the judgment of most of my colleagues," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said. He also said the economy is strong.
  said 3:02:57 PM ET · drafted 3:03:36 PM ET

Warsh: “That isn't something that we're uncomfortable with that tells me that policy is working.”

On financial conditions having tightened a bit since the last meeting
  said 3:04:07 PM ET · drafted 3:04:11 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said: "The goal in my view and you've heard me say this before isn't to throw sand in the gears of the economy and throw people out of work." He said he does not think the Fed has to do that.
  said 3:03:47 PM ET · drafted 3:04:49 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, "there is one more CPI between this meeting and the December meeting." He said later that it is the only inflation measure the Fed will have before then.
  said 3:19:40 PM ET · drafted 3:19:59 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said one more CPI report is due before the December meeting and that "oil prices are going up and you know that the war is still going on." He said he doesn't expect the Fed to learn a lot.
  said 3:19:50 PM ET · drafted 3:21:12 PM ET

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the FOMC will hold eight meetings per year starting next fall. In 2027, "one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy," with no rate vote or policy statement anticipated.
  said 3:31:16 PM ET · drafted 3:31:31 PM ET

TRANSCRIPT (copy-edited; times Eastern)

[2:00:17 PM ET] Okay, there you
[2:00:17 PM ET] is news. No change in
[2:00:18 PM ET] okay there is news no change in rates but it's a ten to two vote
[2:00:19 PM ET] rates, but it's a 10-2 vote with
[2:00:22 PM ET] Governor Lisa Cook
[2:00:22 PM ET] joining Cleveland's Beth Hammock in
[2:00:24 PM ET] dissenting in favor of a quarter-point
[2:00:24 PM ET] with governor lisa cook joining cleveland's beth hammock
[2:00:28 PM ET] increase. The statement
[2:00:28 PM ET] says inflation remains
[2:00:28 PM ET] in dissenting in favor of a quarter point increase
[2:00:31 PM ET] elevated, then goes on to say the
[2:00:31 PM ET] the statement says inflation remains elevated
[2:00:31 PM ET] accumulation of more information will
[2:00:33 PM ET] help the committee determine the policy stance
[2:00:33 PM ET] then goes on to say the accumulation of more information will help
[2:00:37 PM ET] appropriate to ensure the
[2:00:37 PM ET] timely return of inflation to the committee's two
[2:00:37 PM ET] the committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure the
[2:00:39 PM ET] 2% goal. It repeats
[2:00:43 PM ET] officials' promise to deliver price
[2:00:43 PM ET] timely return of inflation to the committee's two percent goal it repeats officials
[2:00:43 PM ET] stability. The
[2:00:45 PM ET] economy is expanding at a strong
[2:00:45 PM ET] promise to deliver price stability the economy is expanding at a
[2:00:49 PM ET] pace, the statement says, while uncertainty
[2:00:49 PM ET] remains elevated, owing in
[2:00:51 PM ET] part to geopolitical developments.
[2:00:51 PM ET] strong pace the statement says while uncertainty remains elevated
[2:00:54 PM ET] domestic spending has been
[2:00:57 PM ET] resilient. Productivity growth is
[2:00:57 PM ET] strong, and capital investment
[2:00:57 PM ET] owing in part to geopolitical developments domestic spending has been resilient
[2:01:01 PM ET] is robust. No problem on
[2:01:01 PM ET] productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust
[2:01:01 PM ET] the unemployment side of the
[2:01:03 PM ET] mandate. Job gains have kept pace with the
[2:01:03 PM ET] no problem on the unemployment side of the mandate job gains have kept pace with the work
[2:01:06 PM ET] workforce, the statement says, and the
[2:01:07 PM ET] unemployment rate has changed
[2:01:10 PM ET] little. And that's it.
[2:01:10 PM ET] force the statement says and the unemployment rate has changed little
[2:01:13 PM ET] Still, we have a couple of surprises.
[2:01:13 PM ET] Everything they say about the economy
[2:01:13 PM ET] and that's it still we have a couple of surprises
[2:01:16 PM ET] in the statement would point in the
[2:01:18 PM ET] direction of a rate increase.
[2:01:18 PM ET] everything they say about the economy in the statement
[2:01:21 PM ET] Dallas Fed President Laurie Logan did
[2:01:21 PM ET] would point in the direction of a rate increase dallas
[2:01:22 PM ET] not dissent, even though she's called for a
[2:01:25 PM ET] series of rate
[2:01:25 PM ET] fed president lori logan did not dissent even though she's called for a series
[2:01:25 PM ET] increases. And the biggest surprise, the dissent.
[2:01:28 PM ET] from Governor Cook. I don't want to make
[2:01:28 PM ET] of rate increases and the biggest surprise the dissent from governor cook
[2:01:30 PM ET] too much of this, but President Trump is
[2:01:33 PM ET] still trying to fire her, and
[2:01:33 PM ET] he wants lower
[2:01:33 PM ET] i don't wanna make too much of this but president trump is still trying to fire her
[2:01:37 PM ET] rates. So, no action from the Fed
[2:01:39 PM ET] today, but a lot to ask Chairman Warsh
[2:01:39 PM ET] and he wants lower rates so no action from the fed today but a lot
[2:01:39 PM ET] about in his news conference. My McKay, you get in
[2:01:43 PM ET] there. Looking forward to your question.
[2:01:43 PM ET] to ask chairman warsh about in his news conference mike mckee you get in there looking forward to your
[2:01:45 PM ET] in about 29 minutes' time. I don't want to talk too much
[2:01:45 PM ET] about the politics, but it's where my mind
[2:01:46 PM ET] question in about twenty nine minutes time i don't wanna talk too much about the politics
[2:01:49 PM ET] went to straight away. So I'll be honest with
[2:01:49 PM ET] you all, waiting for Truth Social to
[2:01:49 PM ET] but it's where my mind went to straight away so i'll be honest with you all
[2:01:52 PM ET] get fired up to see two dissents, one out
[2:01:54 PM ET] of Cleveland and one out of the
[2:01:54 PM ET] waiting for true social to get fired up to see two dissents one out of cleveland
[2:01:57 PM ET] board, it's going to get the president's attention.
[2:01:57 PM ET] Just to be very clear, this is Lisa
[2:01:58 PM ET] and one out of the board it's gonna get the president's attention just to to be very clear this
[2:02:01 PM ET] Cook's first interest rate descent as a Fed
[2:02:01 PM ET] governor, and it comes amid a lot
[2:02:04 PM ET] of questions. We have heard
[2:02:04 PM ET] lisa cook's first interest rate descent as a fed governor and it comes amid a lot of
[2:02:06 PM ET] already from Beth Hammack
[2:02:06 PM ET] repeatedly about her views. That is not a
[2:02:06 PM ET] questions we have heard already from beth hammack
[2:02:09 PM ET] surprise. This one, very much a
[2:02:13 PM ET] surprise, and comes at a time where it's a surprise that other
[2:02:13 PM ET] repeatedly about her views that is not a surprise this one very much
[2:02:13 PM ET] people did not dissent. I am
[2:02:15 PM ET] in nine-minute press
[2:02:15 PM ET] surprise it comes at a time where it's a surprise that other people did not dissent
[2:02:19 PM ET] conference. Tighten this one up,
[2:02:19 PM ET] TK. He wants to get it. We'll get under 10 minutes.
[2:02:19 PM ET] i amend nine minute press conference tighten this one up tk
[2:02:22 PM ET] It's a hold with two descents. One descent coming from
[2:02:25 PM ET] a hawkish Cleveland Fed president Beth
[2:02:25 PM ET] wants to take it under ten minutes it's a hold with two dissents one
[2:02:25 PM ET] Hannock, the other coming from Fed
[2:02:25 PM ET] descent coming from a hawkish cleveland fed president hannock the other
[2:02:27 PM ET] Governor Lisa Cook, a name but at
[2:02:30 PM ET] this point you'll all be very well associated
[2:02:30 PM ET] coming from fed governor lisa kirk a name
[2:02:30 PM ET] with. This isn't much of a market
[2:02:34 PM ET] story so far. You'll just still hire
[2:02:34 PM ET] that at this point you'll all be very well associated with this isn't much of a market story
[2:02:36 PM ET] higher at the front end of the curve by two basis
[2:02:39 PM ET] points on Tuesday this afternoon,
[2:02:39 PM ET] so far yields are still higher at the front end of the curve by two basis
[2:02:39 PM ET] 476 on tens up two, still
[2:02:48 PM ET] around. Decisions by households, communities, and businesses. Working together, these three key Fed
[2:02:48 PM ET] points on twos this afternoon four seventy six on tens up two still around
[2:02:48 PM ET] decisions by households communities and businesses working together these
[2:02:54 PM ET] entities and the unique Federal Reserve System structure established by Congress more than a century ago help promote
[2:02:54 PM ET] three key fed entities and the unique
[2:02:57 PM ET] conditions.
[2:02:57 PM ET] federal reserve system structure established by congress more than a
[2:02:57 PM ET] century ago help promote conditions take earnings numbers in a few hours' time from the likes of google
[2:03:01 PM ET] Earnings numbers in a few hours' time from the likes of Google and Microsoft. But those decentralised will get your attention. Head
[2:03:01 PM ET] Heading into this presser and heading into
[2:03:04 PM ET] December. You know, if they say that
[2:03:04 PM ET] and microsoft but those to essentially said we'll get your attention head into this presser
[2:03:06 PM ET] inflation still is too high and they
[2:03:06 PM ET] and heading into december you know if they say that inflation still is
[2:03:06 PM ET] are seeking a timely return to
[2:03:09 PM ET] 2%. There is one question and one question
[2:03:09 PM ET] too high and they are seeking a timely return to two percent there is one question
[2:03:13 PM ET] only: Why did you not hike
[2:03:15 PM ET] rates today? Can Fed
[2:03:15 PM ET] Chair Kevin Warsh answer that question
[2:03:16 PM ET] question and one question only why did you not hike rates today
[2:03:19 PM ET] sufficiently is going to be a challenge.
[2:03:19 PM ET] can fed chair kevin walsh answer that question sufficiently
[2:03:21 PM ET] We've got the former Fed Vice Chair to try and answer that question,
[2:03:21 PM ET] Rich Clara joins us now for more. Rich, good afternoon. Good to see
[2:03:21 PM ET] it's gonna be a challenge we've got the former fed vice chair to try and answer
[2:03:25 PM ET] you. Good to see you, John. What's
[2:03:25 PM ET] your initial reaction, sir, to this
[2:03:25 PM ET] that question rich clarida joins us now for more rich good afternoon good to see you
[2:03:28 PM ET] one? Obviously, not a surprise with the
[2:03:28 PM ET] good to see you john what's your initial reaction sir to this one
[2:03:31 PM ET] hole I did expect two
[2:03:33 PM ET] dissents. I will confess I wasn't expecting
[2:03:33 PM ET] obviously not a surprise with the hole i did
[2:03:33 PM ET] Governor Cook, but if you look at her recent
[2:03:33 PM ET] expect two dissents i will confess i wasn't expecting governor cook but if you look at her recent
[2:03:36 PM ET] speeches and commentary, she
[2:03:39 PM ET] clearly expressed concern about
[2:03:39 PM ET] inflation, in particular, the impact on
[2:03:39 PM ET] speeches and commentary she clearly expressed concern about
[2:03:42 PM ET] many Americans.
[2:03:46 PM ET] So I will take that
[2:03:46 PM ET] inflation particularly the impact on many americans
[2:03:46 PM ET] as it is. What would your answer
[2:03:48 PM ET] be to if you think that inflation is the
[2:03:48 PM ET] so i i will take that as it is
[2:03:52 PM ET] preeminent concern and you're seeking a
[2:03:52 PM ET] timely return to 2%
[2:03:52 PM ET] what would your answer be to if you think that inflation is a preeminent concern and you're
[2:03:54 PM ET] inflation. Why not hike at this
[2:03:58 PM ET] meeting? It's a good question.
[2:03:58 PM ET] I think, at least, a part of what's going on from the
[2:03:58 PM ET] seeking a timely return to two percent inflation
[2:03:58 PM ET] why not hike at this meeting
[2:04:00 PM ET] minutes we've learned is you've got a group on
[2:04:00 PM ET] it's a good question i think lisa part of what's going on from the minutes we've learned is you've got
[2:04:04 PM ET] the committee that thinks they need to do a
[2:04:04 PM ET] recalibration, in which case, why not
[2:04:06 PM ET] hike at this meeting? You have another group that
[2:04:06 PM ET] a group on the committee that thinks they need to do a recalibration in which case
[2:04:10 PM ET] thinks it's more about risk management.
[2:04:10 PM ET] If you're in the risk management camp, you can afford to
[2:04:10 PM ET] why not hike at this meeting you have another group that thinks it's more about risk management if you're in the
[2:04:14 PM ET] wait and look at more data, and I
[2:04:14 PM ET] think we'll get some indication of that at the press
[2:04:15 PM ET] management camp you can afford to wait and look at more data and i think we'll
[2:04:17 PM ET] conference from the chair where he
[2:04:17 PM ET] get some indication of that at the press conference from
[2:04:17 PM ET] comes down on that decision.
[2:04:20 PM ET] To me, the big asterisk here is nominal
[2:04:20 PM ET] the chair where where he comes down on on that decision to me the big asterisk here is nominal
[2:04:23 PM ET] GDP. Michael Woodford, newly minted
[2:04:23 PM ET] Nobel Prize of your
[2:04:27 PM ET] Columbia, has written a lot about
[2:04:27 PM ET] gdp michael woodford newly minted nobel prize of your columbia
[2:04:30 PM ET] nominal GDP and paying attention to
[2:04:30 PM ET] it. Should this Fed
[2:04:30 PM ET] has written a lot about nominal gdp and paying attention to it
[2:04:33 PM ET] adjust amend
[2:04:33 PM ET] discuss this
[2:04:33 PM ET] should this fed adjust a man discuss
[2:04:36 PM ET] crazy six percent
[2:04:39 PM ET] persistent nominal GDP that we have.
[2:04:39 PM ET] this crazy six percent
[2:04:42 PM ET] Well, Tom, I've written about that as well
[2:04:42 PM ET] recently. So for the last four
[2:04:42 PM ET] nominal gdp that we have well tom i've written about that as well
[2:04:45 PM ET] quarters, nominal GDP growth has
[2:04:45 PM ET] been close to 7%. It may even go
[2:04:45 PM ET] recently so for the last four quarters nominal gdp growth
[2:04:47 PM ET] up after we get the data
[2:04:51 PM ET] tomorrow. That's clearly not consistent with the
[2:04:51 PM ET] has been close to seven percent it may even go up after we get the data
[2:04:53 PM ET] 2% inflation target.
[2:04:53 PM ET] and it shows that there's a demand
[2:04:54 PM ET] tomorrow that's clearly not consistent with the two percent inflation target and and
[2:04:57 PM ET] component to the economy now as well as the
[2:04:57 PM ET] supply component. Let me play Donald Trump right
[2:04:57 PM ET] it shows that there's a demand component to the economy now as well as the supply
[2:04:59 PM ET] now. How can fancy over
[2:05:02 PM ET] overeducated people at the Fed
[2:05:02 PM ET] component let me play donald trump right now how can fancy overeducated people at the
[2:05:06 PM ET] prosecute monetary
[2:05:06 PM ET] policy with this load
[2:05:09 PM ET] of a boom bubble
[2:05:09 PM ET] giant AI nominal
[2:05:09 PM ET] fed prosecute monetary policy
[2:05:09 PM ET] with this load of a boom bubble giant
[2:05:12 PM ET] GDP. How can we practice what
[2:05:15 PM ET] we studied? Well, at some
[2:05:15 PM ET] ai nominal gdp how can we practice what we
[2:05:15 PM ET] level, it actually simplifies the
[2:05:21 PM ET] analysis for the fit, because if you're convinced
[2:05:21 PM ET] studied well at some level it it actually simplifies the analysis
[2:05:21 PM ET] it's really all a demand shock then
[2:05:24 PM ET] the message is clear. You got to hike
[2:05:24 PM ET] for the fact because if you're convinced it's really all a demand shock then the then the message
[2:05:28 PM ET] rates. That's
[2:05:28 PM ET] why, right now, they're trying to sort through the
[2:05:28 PM ET] is clear you gotta hike rates
[2:05:31 PM ET] demand versus the supply. Eventually, of
[2:05:31 PM ET] course, the AI will boost productivity.
[2:05:31 PM ET] that's why right now they're trying to sort through the demand versus the supply eventually of course
[2:05:33 PM ET] be disinflationary.
[2:05:36 PM ET] So I think because there's a productivity piece as
[2:05:36 PM ET] the ai will boost productivity be disinflationary so i think
[2:05:39 PM ET] well, it does complicate
[2:05:39 PM ET] the thinking. That's the sequence
[2:05:39 PM ET] because there's a productivity piece as well it does complicate the
[2:05:42 PM ET] bet from the Fed chair. He says,
[2:05:46 PM ET] first move, demand shock, then
[2:05:46 PM ET] the thinking and that's the sequence bet from the fed chair he says
[2:05:46 PM ET] later, supply relief.
[2:05:48 PM ET] Do you set policy for the shock you've got or the relief you
[2:05:48 PM ET] first move demand shock then later
[2:05:51 PM ET] might get?
[2:05:51 PM ET] supply relief yeah do you set policy for the shock you've got or the relief you might get
[2:05:51 PM ET] Well, I think the answer is that's
[2:05:55 PM ET] probably why you've got a committee that
[2:05:55 PM ET] well i i i think the answer is that's
[2:05:57 PM ET] is divided or at least thinking about a
[2:05:57 PM ET] different theory of the case right
[2:05:58 PM ET] probably why you've got a committee that is is divided or at least thinking
[2:06:01 PM ET] now. You know, the textbook would say
[2:06:03 PM ET] that markets will adjust over
[2:06:03 PM ET] about a different theory of the case right now you know the textbook would say that
[2:06:03 PM ET] time and understand that growth, and that'll begin to show
[2:06:06 PM ET] up in rates, and the market
[2:06:06 PM ET] markets will adjust over time and understand that growth and that'll begin to show
[2:06:10 PM ET] may do some of the work for you, but right
[2:06:10 PM ET] now, I think we're all sorting through,
[2:06:10 PM ET] in rates and the market may do some of the work for you but but right now i think we're all sorting
[2:06:12 PM ET] sorting through this.
[2:06:16 PM ET] I said Mike McKee was still going to run off to that news
[2:06:16 PM ET] conference, but he's standing by, I'm happy to
[2:06:16 PM ET] through sorting sorting through this i said mike mckee was still
[2:06:20 PM ET] say. Because these news conferences, Mike, are slightly different.
[2:06:20 PM ET] This one starts at about 24 minutes'
[2:06:20 PM ET] gonna run off to that news conference but he's standing by i'm happy to say because these news conferences mike are
[2:06:23 PM ET] time. We're used to something that lasts about an hour, 15
[2:06:23 PM ET] 50 minutes. The last one was really
[2:06:23 PM ET] are slightly different this one starts at about twenty four minutes time we're used to something that lasts about an hour
[2:06:26 PM ET] short, Mike. What do you know about what this is going to be
[2:06:29 PM ET] like when the chairman steps into that
[2:06:29 PM ET] fifty minutes the last one was really short mike what do you know about what this is gonna be like
[2:06:29 PM ET] when the chairman steps into that room
[2:06:32 PM ET] room? Well, it appears it's going to be another
[2:06:32 PM ET] short one. I'm told that they're not going to allow
[2:06:34 PM ET] follow-up questions again, which
[2:06:34 PM ET] well it appears there's gonna be another short one i'm told that they're not gonna allow
[2:06:37 PM ET] is what contributed to having just a
[2:06:37 PM ET] 28-minute news conference the last
[2:06:37 PM ET] follow-up questions again which is what contributed to having just
[2:06:41 PM ET] time. So, if that's the case, we
[2:06:48 PM ET] will expect Kevin Worsch to take questions
[2:06:48 PM ET] a twenty eight minute news conference the last time so if that's the case we will expect
[2:06:48 PM ET] from most of the major news
[2:06:48 PM ET] organizations, but without
[2:06:48 PM ET] follow-ups, it's probably going to be a lot shorter.
[2:06:48 PM ET] kevin worsch to take questions from most of the major news organizations but
[2:06:49 PM ET] There is a lot to ask him about
[2:06:49 PM ET] without follow ups it's probably going to be a lot shorter there is a lot
[2:06:53 PM ET] because certainly there are questions
[2:06:56 PM ET] about why the Fed held
[2:06:56 PM ET] off this time, especially with
[2:06:56 PM ET] to ask him about because certainly there are questions about
[2:06:59 PM ET] the statement they have talking about the strength
[2:06:59 PM ET] of the economy.
[2:06:59 PM ET] why the fed held off this time especially with the statement they have
[2:07:01 PM ET] but whether or not he wants to go into depth or whether or
[2:07:02 PM ET] talking about the strength of the economy but whether or not he want
[2:07:04 PM ET] not he'll explain his
[2:07:08 PM ET] thinking, and certainly the question
[2:07:08 PM ET] to go into depth or whether or not he'll explain his thinking
[2:07:08 PM ET] is open, we don't know
[2:07:11 PM ET] about is what he might say about any
[2:07:11 PM ET] and certainly the question is open we don't know about is what he might
[2:07:11 PM ET] future increases. My McKay, thank
[2:07:11 PM ET] say about any future increases
[2:07:14 PM ET] you, sir. Thanks for everything. Looking forward to Mike's
[2:07:16 PM ET] question again in the news conference a little bit later
[2:07:19 PM ET] on this afternoon, 23 minutes
[2:07:19 PM ET] away. Lisa, the stage is set, and we all know what the questions
[2:07:19 PM ET] mike mckee thank you sir thanks for everything looking forward to mike's question again
[2:07:19 PM ET] the news conference a little bit later on this afternoon twenty three minutes away
[2:07:23 PM ET] question's going to be. If you're going to hike in December, why not hike
[2:07:25 PM ET] today? What are you waiting for?
[2:07:25 PM ET] away lisa the stage is set and we all know what the question's gonna be
[2:07:25 PM ET] Yeah, and key question is: are you going to go to some sort of
[2:07:26 PM ET] if you're gonna hike in december why not hike today what are you waiting for yeah in
[2:07:28 PM ET] quarterly pace? Is that what he's setting right
[2:07:32 PM ET] now, or is there some other metric he's looking
[2:07:32 PM ET] for? Unclear. Probably
[2:07:32 PM ET] key question is are you seeking to go to some sort of quarterly pace is
[2:07:32 PM ET] that what he's setting right now or is there some other metric he's looking for
[2:07:34 PM ET] unlikely he's going to have reaction function
[2:07:37 PM ET] for us. I do wonder though, the task
[2:07:37 PM ET] unclear probably unlikely he's gonna have reaction function for us
[2:07:37 PM ET] force on communication, are they going to
[2:07:40 PM ET] come back maybe saying, maybe this
[2:07:40 PM ET] i do wonder the task force on communication are they gonna come back maybe saying
[2:07:43 PM ET] wasn't such a good idea, Ixne, on the
[2:07:43 PM ET] no guidance if you're gonna end up with a higher
[2:07:46 PM ET] risk premia attached to the U.S. borrowing
[2:07:46 PM ET] maybe this wasn't such a good idea on the no guidance say if you're gonna end up with a higher risk
[2:07:49 PM ET] costs, I wonder if that's what's going to
[2:07:49 PM ET] happen. Would you like to explain what that was? It was pig
[2:07:49 PM ET] premium attached to the us borrowing costs i wonder if that's
[2:07:52 PM ET] I was stating myself.
[2:07:56 PM ET] Chicago
[2:07:56 PM ET] gonna happen would you like to explain what that was it was pigletting i'm just stating myself
[2:07:56 PM ET] 202, right? Is that what they teach up
[2:07:59 PM ET] the University of Texas? This is what they teach at the University of Chicago.
[2:07:59 PM ET] this is this is chicago two zero two right so they is that what they teach over there
[2:08:02 PM ET] It's not a good pitch for them,
[2:08:02 PM ET] Bremo. Rich, I still
[2:08:02 PM ET] is what they teach at university of chicago i say okay it's not a good pitch for them
[2:08:04 PM ET] Professor Claret, sorry, I have
[2:08:08 PM ET] to go there. Is this in the
[2:08:08 PM ET] rich i so professor clara i i sorry i have to go there is this in the
[2:08:08 PM ET] textbooks what we're doing right now?
[2:08:08 PM ET] textbooks what we're doing right now
[2:08:10 PM ET] I it used to be simpler. Well,
[2:08:14 PM ET] no, Tom, this one actually is in the
[2:08:14 PM ET] textbooks. If you
[2:08:14 PM ET] i it used to be simpler well no tom this one
[2:08:16 PM ET] have an innovation and you get the
[2:08:20 PM ET] productivity falling in your lap, that's
[2:08:20 PM ET] great. But in the real world, you've got factories and
[2:08:20 PM ET] is in the textbooks if you have an
[2:08:20 PM ET] innovation and you get the productivity falling in your lap
[2:08:23 PM ET] data centers and power
[2:08:23 PM ET] plants. And so, as John indicated
[2:08:23 PM ET] that's great but in the real world you've got factories and data centers and power plants and so
[2:08:25 PM ET] before, the textbook says the
[2:08:28 PM ET] growth you need to adjust for, but you have
[2:08:28 PM ET] as as as john indicated before the textbook says the growth
[2:08:31 PM ET] to factor in the productivity, which will be
[2:08:31 PM ET] disinflationary, and they also don't want to choke
[2:08:31 PM ET] you need to adjust for but you have to factor in the productivity will be disinflatable
[2:08:34 PM ET] off the boom as well. So
[2:08:38 PM ET] it's a little bit, you have a lot of moving parts right
[2:08:38 PM ET] and they also don't wanna choke off the boom
[2:08:38 PM ET] Would Dale Jorgensen say we can get out
[2:08:41 PM ET] front and actually factor in productivity?
[2:08:41 PM ET] as well so it's a little bit you have a lot of moving parts right now would dale jorgensen say we can get our
[2:08:41 PM ET] It's out there, isn't
[2:08:44 PM ET] it? Dale was one of my professors in
[2:08:44 PM ET] front and actually factor in productivity it's
[2:08:47 PM ET] graduate school, and if I were channeling Dale
[2:08:47 PM ET] out there isn't it dale was one of my professors in graduate school and if
[2:08:49 PM ET] now, I think he would be saying
[2:08:49 PM ET] that, as would Robert Hall, by the way, who also won the Nobel
[2:08:49 PM ET] i were channeling dale now i think he would be saying that as would robert hall by the way who also won
[2:08:52 PM ET] Prize. You can channel any of these
[2:08:55 PM ET] economists, you just use AI, according to Jason
[2:08:55 PM ET] Fuhrman. You see that? Fuhrman wants to replace
[2:08:55 PM ET] the nobel prize you can channel any of these economists you just use ai
[2:08:59 PM ET] everybody. I did get that.
[2:08:59 PM ET] according to jason furman yeah you see that furman wants to replace everybody i i i did get that
[2:08:59 PM ET] I did. I did quite what Jason said. I'm butchering that, but you
[2:09:02 PM ET] saw the same thing. Oh, yeah, I
[2:09:06 PM ET] did, indeed. As a former CEA
[2:09:06 PM ET] staffer, I certainly hope they don't replace the
[2:09:06 PM ET] i did jason said i'm butchering that but you saw the same thing oh
[2:09:06 PM ET] yeah i did indeed i as a former cea staffer i certainly hope they don't
[2:09:08 PM ET] CEA staff jobs that are.
[2:09:12 PM ET] you offended by that? The best job I ever had in my life in government
[2:09:12 PM ET] was a CEA staffer.
[2:09:12 PM ET] replace the cea staff jobs that offended by that the best job i ever had in my life in government was
[2:09:15 PM ET] So don't get rid of it. What did you like about
[2:09:15 PM ET] a cea staffer so don't get rid of like about it
[2:09:15 PM ET] it? Oh my.
[2:09:18 PM ET] you know, you're looking
[2:09:20 PM ET] at economic policy, you're
[2:09:20 PM ET] oh my you you you're you're you're looking at
[2:09:23 PM ET] briefing principles, you're getting a sense
[2:09:23 PM ET] of the reality
[2:09:24 PM ET] economic policy you're you're briefing principles you're getting a sense of of
[2:09:26 PM ET] of getting close to an answer in a
[2:09:30 PM ET] week as opposed to waiting three years to get
[2:09:30 PM ET] it published in a journal. I found it was a great
[2:09:30 PM ET] you know the reality of of getting close to an answer in
[2:09:33 PM ET] job. Different to academia. Oh, yeah.
[2:09:33 PM ET] This is a different moment. We've now got economists
[2:09:33 PM ET] a week as opposed to waiting three years to get it published in a journal i found it was a great job
[2:09:33 PM ET] different to academia oh yeah this is a different moment
[2:09:36 PM ET] looking at data centers, economists looking
[2:09:39 PM ET] at how much money the likes of SpaceX
[2:09:39 PM ET] Anthropic, and Meta are raising because they're going to throw
[2:09:39 PM ET] we've now got economists looking at data centers yeah economists looking at how much money the likes of
[2:09:41 PM ET] it at this economy. How much harder is it to
[2:09:45 PM ET] set policy for an economy, a market like
[2:09:45 PM ET] that one? I think there
[2:09:45 PM ET] spacex anthropic and meta are raising because they're gonna throw it
[2:09:45 PM ET] at this economy how much harder is it to set policy for an economy and market like that one
[2:09:47 PM ET] are always challenges. I mean, right
[2:09:50 PM ET] now, we haven't had a boom like this in a long
[2:09:50 PM ET] i think there are always challenges i mean right now
[2:09:53 PM ET] long time, but I think there are always
[2:09:53 PM ET] challenges. And in practice, you're trying
[2:09:53 PM ET] now we haven't had a a boom like this in a long long time but i think there are always
[2:09:56 PM ET] you're trying to extract
[2:09:59 PM ET] signals about growth, expectations,
[2:09:59 PM ET] challenges and and in practice you're trying to do you're trying to extract
[2:09:59 PM ET] demand, supply, financial
[2:10:02 PM ET] markets. So a lot of things in the mix right now,
[2:10:02 PM ET] signals about growth expectations demand supply financial markets so
[2:10:06 PM ET] John. Do you think it's a good time to be
[2:10:06 PM ET] coy as the Fed leader about how you're
[2:10:06 PM ET] a lot of things in the mix right now john do you think it's a good time to be coy
[2:10:10 PM ET] thinking? Is that a loaded
[2:10:10 PM ET] question?
[2:10:10 PM ET] as the fed leader about how you're thinking is that a loaded question
[2:10:12 PM ET] Put it this way. I mean, maybe
[2:10:15 PM ET] answer in an indirect
[2:10:15 PM ET] route. You know, during my time at the
[2:10:15 PM ET] i put it put it this way i mean maybe
[2:10:18 PM ET] at the Fed, I had
[2:10:18 PM ET] answer in an indirect route you know during my time i think what diplomatics that's
[2:10:21 PM ET] a love-hate
[2:10:21 PM ET] relationship with the dots. You can
[2:10:22 PM ET] the fed i i had a i had a love hate relationships with with the dot
[2:10:25 PM ET] always think of problems with the dots and
[2:10:25 PM ET] improvements, but I do think, I think
[2:10:25 PM ET] you can always think of problems with the dots and improvements but but i do think i think they've
[2:10:28 PM ET] they have been serving a purpose
[2:10:31 PM ET] already in the first several months
[2:10:33 PM ET] of the Warsh
[2:10:33 PM ET] they have been serving a purpose already in in the first several months of of the war
[2:10:33 PM ET] Fed, as has the communication from governors and
[2:10:36 PM ET] vice chairs. And so I don't think we're
[2:10:36 PM ET] fed has has the communication from governors and vice
[2:10:40 PM ET] going to a world in which there's an absence
[2:10:40 PM ET] of forward guidance. It may take a
[2:10:40 PM ET] chairs and so i don't think we're going to a world in which there's an
[2:10:43 PM ET] different form, it may rely more on
[2:10:46 PM ET] speeches and commentary and less on
[2:10:46 PM ET] little geometric
[2:10:46 PM ET] of forward guidance it may take a different form it may rely more on speeches and commentary
[2:10:48 PM ET] shapes. But just the fact right now that
[2:10:48 PM ET] and less on little geometric shapes but
[2:10:52 PM ET] this is not a surprise is a function
[2:10:52 PM ET] of the guidance that we got from Jefferson
[2:10:52 PM ET] just the fact right now that this is not a surprise is a is a function of the
[2:10:55 PM ET] and Megan.
[2:10:57 PM ET] It's reinforced the guidance from those individuals. It's reinforced
[2:10:57 PM ET] guidance that we got from jefferson and and will reinforce the guidance from those individuals
[2:10:57 PM ET] it. It was always going to be the risk with all of this.
[2:11:00 PM ET] If you hold today, you've reinforced the guidance we got from the
[2:11:00 PM ET] it's reinforced it it was always gonna be the risk with all of this if you hold today you've reinforced
[2:11:04 PM ET] likes of Williams and
[2:11:04 PM ET] Jefferson. Is the Troika still alive?
[2:11:04 PM ET] the guidance we got from the likes of williams and jefferson
[2:11:06 PM ET] Ultimately, that is the question. Did Walsh go along for the
[2:11:09 PM ET] ride? Yeah. I don't know. Or maybe they're trying to get out of
[2:11:09 PM ET] is the troika still alive ultimately that is the question did walsh go along for the ride yeah
[2:11:09 PM ET] ahead him. We're not in the business of doing that
[2:11:12 PM ET] anymore. I just, it's hard to reconcile that with what
[2:11:12 PM ET] know or maybe they're trying to get out ahead of him we're not in the business of doing that anymore i just
[2:11:16 PM ET] we heard in the communication
[2:11:16 PM ET] recently. And what the market basically implied.
[2:11:16 PM ET] it's hard to reconcile that with what we heard in the communication recently and what the market basically
[2:11:18 PM ET] and all the commentary from analysts who are saying they
[2:11:21 PM ET] spoke, it's the troika, we're going with
[2:11:21 PM ET] implied and all the commentary from analysts who are saying they spoke it's the troika
[2:11:21 PM ET] it. If you're just joining, it's welcome to the program. So the Federal
[2:11:24 PM ET] Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
[2:11:24 PM ET] if you're just joining us welcome to the program so the federal reserve decided to keep interest rates
[2:11:28 PM ET] with two dissents, one from a regional Fed President.
[2:11:28 PM ET] that's indicated this is the direction of
[2:11:31 PM ET] travel she wants to go in. Out of Cleveland, Fed President.
[2:11:31 PM ET] there, Beth Hammock. The other came from the
[2:11:31 PM ET] unchanged with two dissents one from the regional fed president that's indicated this is the direction of travel she
[2:11:33 PM ET] board, the board of governors, Lisa
[2:11:33 PM ET] wants to go in out of cleveland the fed president there beth hammock the other came from the board
[2:11:37 PM ET] Cook, who has been in a bit of a fight with the White House
[2:11:39 PM ET] over the last couple of years. So, this will be
[2:11:39 PM ET] the board of governors lisa cook who has been in a bit of a fight with the white house over the last
[2:11:39 PM ET] controversial. The optics, not great for the
[2:11:42 PM ET] politics heading into the midterms, that's for
[2:11:42 PM ET] couple of years so this will be controversial the optics not great for the politics heading into the midterms
[2:11:46 PM ET] sure. And we're awaiting what is going to be an
[2:11:46 PM ET] obvious reaction for this White House,
[2:11:48 PM ET] Inevitably, I'd be shocked if we didn't hear from the White
[2:11:48 PM ET] that's for sure and we're awaiting what is gonna be an obvious reaction from this
[2:11:51 PM ET] House about that dissenter hype
[2:11:51 PM ET] rates. In some ways, I wonder if that actually takes pressure off
[2:11:51 PM ET] white house inevitably i'd be shocked if we didn't hear from the white house
[2:11:55 PM ET] Kevin Worsch to potentially do something else in the
[2:11:55 PM ET] about that descent to high rates in some ways i wonder if that actually takes pressure off kevin warsh
[2:11:57 PM ET] future. He's managed to stay out of the
[2:11:57 PM ET] limelight, but I can imagine Cook, as well
[2:11:57 PM ET] to potentially do something else in the future he's managed to stay out of the limelight but i can imagine
[2:12:01 PM ET] Jerome Powell, who we haven't mentioned, who really
[2:12:03 PM ET] is keeping a very low profile.
[2:12:03 PM ET] for good reason.
[2:12:03 PM ET] cook as well as jerome powell we haven't mentioned who really is keeping a
[2:12:03 PM ET] very low profile his head down he for good reason
[2:12:06 PM ET] Right? Just disappearing beneath the table.
[2:12:10 PM ET] I mean, he's done in any of this. I think that that's
[2:12:10 PM ET] notable. This came from Neil Danta of
[2:12:10 PM ET] right disappear beneath the table i mean he's not he's not in any of this i think that that's notable
[2:12:13 PM ET] RenMac, publishing just moments ago.
[2:12:13 PM ET] My assumption is that Logan and Kashgowry went along with
[2:12:13 PM ET] this came from neil dutta of renovac published just moments ago
[2:12:15 PM ET] this because they assume the Fed will hike in
[2:12:18 PM ET] December. I'd expect the minutes to be more hawkish at the
[2:12:18 PM ET] my assumption is that logan and kashkari went along with this because they assume the fed will hike in december
[2:12:22 PM ET] margin. Cook dissent is notable because she
[2:12:22 PM ET] has never dissented in four plus years.
[2:12:22 PM ET] i'd expect the minister to be more hawkish at the margin cook dissent is notable because she has never dissented
[2:12:25 PM ET] In recent memory, we've not seen a Biden
[2:12:28 PM ET] appointee dissent from the rest of the Board of
[2:12:28 PM ET] in four plus years in recent memory we've not seen a biden appointee dissent from the rest of the board
[2:12:28 PM ET] Governors. We've seen it from Bowman,
[2:12:28 PM ET] of governors we've seen it from bowman
[2:12:28 PM ET] myron
[2:12:30 PM ET] Myron, and Waller. Right now, you're seeing an
[2:12:30 PM ET] and waller
[2:12:31 PM ET] 88% chance of a December rate hike.
[2:12:34 PM ET] So essentially, the market is saying, all right,
[2:12:34 PM ET] right now you're seeing an eighty eight percent chance of a december rate hike so essentially the market is saying
[2:12:36 PM ET] you're signaling to us, you're going to go on
[2:12:39 PM ET] that pace. It's not a sort of an
[2:12:39 PM ET] issue of them remaining on hold
[2:12:39 PM ET] alright you're signaling to us you're gonna go on that pace
[2:12:43 PM ET] indefinitely. Dan Swunker, KPMG, joins us now for
[2:12:43 PM ET] it's not sort of an issue of them remaining on hold in
[2:12:43 PM ET] more. Dan, welcome to the program,
[2:12:46 PM ET] Unchanged, with some dissent, not much
[2:12:46 PM ET] indefinitely dan swanca kpmg joins us now for more dan welcome to the program
[2:12:48 PM ET] controversy, maybe a little from the Lysa
[2:12:52 PM ET] of Lisa Cook. What do you want to hear in the news
[2:12:52 PM ET] conference?
[2:12:52 PM ET] unchanged with some dissent not much controversy maybe a little from
[2:12:52 PM ET] the likes of lisa cook what do you wanna hear in the news conference
[2:12:55 PM ET] Well, I'd like to hear more that I think we're going to
[2:12:55 PM ET] hear in the news conference. It is going to
[2:12:57 PM ET] be short, as Mike already laid
[2:12:57 PM ET] well i'd like to hear more than i think we're going to hear in the news conference it is gonna be short
[2:13:01 PM ET] out, and I was expecting that. Kevin
[2:13:01 PM ET] Morse does not want to get out ahead
[2:13:01 PM ET] as mike already laid out and i was expecting that
[2:13:04 PM ET] of things. He doesn't want to do the forward
[2:13:07 PM ET] guidance. And I do think that
[2:13:07 PM ET] this is sort of, we're seeing this sort
[2:13:07 PM ET] kevin walsh does not wanna get out ahead of things he doesn't wanna do the forward guidance
[2:13:10 PM ET] of battle out there between
[2:13:10 PM ET] and i do think that this is sort of we're seeing this
[2:13:13 PM ET] people talking in between
[2:13:13 PM ET] meetings and guiding
[2:13:13 PM ET] sort of battle out there between people talking
[2:13:17 PM ET] the markets, whether or not we get those dot
[2:13:19 PM ET] plots, I worry that December may be the
[2:13:19 PM ET] in between meetings and guiding the markets whether or not we get those dot
[2:13:19 PM ET] last time we get a dot plot. I think there's
[2:13:23 PM ET] an important issue here. One
[2:13:23 PM ET] plots i worry that december may be the last time we get a dot plot
[2:13:25 PM ET] is that Lisa Cook did make this
[2:13:25 PM ET] dissent. That's a credibility
[2:13:26 PM ET] i think there's an important issue here one is that
[2:13:29 PM ET] move. That is, I'm not getting
[2:13:29 PM ET] lisa cook did make this descent that's a credibility
[2:13:29 PM ET] spooked by the election, I'm not spooked
[2:13:32 PM ET] by what's going on. I'm doing my
[2:13:32 PM ET] move that is i'm not getting spooked by the election i'm not
[2:13:34 PM ET] job. I have said I'm worried about
[2:13:38 PM ET] inflation and I'm worried that we should
[2:13:38 PM ET] be raising rates right
[2:13:38 PM ET] spooked by what's going on i'm doing my job i have said i'm worried about inflation
[2:13:40 PM ET] now. That her doing that, I think, is a
[2:13:40 PM ET] and i'm worried that we should be raising rates right now
[2:13:43 PM ET] credibility to the
[2:13:43 PM ET] Fed. That may not play well in certain
[2:13:43 PM ET] that her doing that i think is a credibility to the fed
[2:13:46 PM ET] corners on politics, but I think it
[2:13:50 PM ET] is very important that she did
[2:13:50 PM ET] that may not play well in certain corners on politics but i think it is very
[2:13:50 PM ET] it and she felt strongly about it
[2:13:52 PM ET] enough to do it. On the other side of
[2:13:52 PM ET] important that she did it and she felt strongly about it enough to do it
[2:13:55 PM ET] it, Beth Hammack, we know that she is
[2:13:55 PM ET] has consistently said this, and I agree
[2:13:55 PM ET] on the other side of it beth hammack we know that she has consistently said this
[2:13:58 PM ET] that Kashkari and Logan
[2:14:01 PM ET] are expecting to hike again in
[2:14:02 PM ET] and i agree that qashqari and logan are expecting to hike
[2:14:02 PM ET] December. That's important as well.
[2:14:04 PM ET] What we're seeing out there, though, is
[2:14:04 PM ET] again in december that's important as well what what we're seeing out there though is that
[2:14:07 PM ET] that there's this idea, and I heard
[2:14:08 PM ET] this from Beth Hammock
[2:14:11 PM ET] herself at the NABE meeting a couple weeks
[2:14:11 PM ET] there's this idea and i heard this from bethemic herself
[2:14:11 PM ET] ago in Cleveland, when she said, Well, we're
[2:14:13 PM ET] trying to cool inflation around the
[2:14:13 PM ET] name meeting couple weeks ago in cleveland when she said
[2:14:16 PM ET] edges, cool the economy around the
[2:14:19 PM ET] edges. I'm not sure that
[2:14:19 PM ET] well we're trying to cool inflation around the edges cool the economy around the edges
[2:14:19 PM ET] is possible. I'm
[2:14:22 PM ET] worried about there's a sort of, I think we'll see
[2:14:22 PM ET] i'm not sure that is possible i'm worried about there's a
[2:14:26 PM ET] more hawkish minutes in this as
[2:14:26 PM ET] well, but I'm also worried
[2:14:26 PM ET] of i think we'll see more hawkish minutes in this as well
[2:14:28 PM ET] about: is there something else the Fed is
[2:14:31 PM ET] worried about? Are they worried about
[2:14:31 PM ET] but i'm also worried about is there something else the fed is worried about are they worried about
[2:14:31 PM ET] breaking something with some
[2:14:34 PM ET] of the fragilities we've seen in the
[2:14:38 PM ET] AI boom, in the issuance of debt.
[2:14:38 PM ET] breaking something with some of the fragilities we
[2:14:38 PM ET] for AI build
[2:14:40 PM ET] out and the backlash that we're
[2:14:40 PM ET] seen in the ai boom in the issuance of debt
[2:14:44 PM ET] seeing at the grassroots
[2:14:44 PM ET] for ai build out and the backlash that we're seeing
[2:14:44 PM ET] level by voters. They
[2:14:47 PM ET] have tied the AI backlash
[2:14:47 PM ET] across all age groups, income
[2:14:47 PM ET] at the grassroots level by voters
[2:14:49 PM ET] strata, and party
[2:14:49 PM ET] they have tied the ai backlash across all age groups income strata
[2:14:52 PM ET] affiliation. There's nothing that is sort of
[2:14:55 PM ET] united the electorate like
[2:14:55 PM ET] and party affiliation there's nothing that has sort of united the electric
[2:14:55 PM ET] that. And that has even been
[2:14:58 PM ET] flagged in one of the
[2:15:02 PM ET] IPOs, is about to come out as
[2:15:02 PM ET] like that and that has even been was even flagged in one of the
[2:15:02 PM ET] a risk for data center
[2:15:04 PM ET] construction going forward. So I think there
[2:15:04 PM ET] ipos is about to come out as a risk for data center construction going
[2:15:08 PM ET] is some of this concern about what
[2:15:08 PM ET] they will break if they go too
[2:15:08 PM ET] so i think there is some of this concern about what will they break
[2:15:10 PM ET] fast, but this sort of
[2:15:14 PM ET] caution and this pose to
[2:15:14 PM ET] if they go too fast but this sort of
[2:15:14 PM ET] conviction when you said it
[2:15:14 PM ET] caution and this post to conviction when
[2:15:16 PM ET] best a couple of times, we've got over five
[2:15:19 PM ET] years of missing inflation and
[2:15:19 PM ET] you said it best a couple of times we've got over five years
[2:15:19 PM ET] the shocks aren't abating.
[2:15:23 PM ET] And inflation expectations by market measures
[2:15:23 PM ET] of missing inflation and the shocks aren't abating and
[2:15:25 PM ET] may be fine, but you talk to
[2:15:25 PM ET] anyone out there and the level of
[2:15:25 PM ET] inflation expectations by market measures may be fine but you talk to anyone
[2:15:28 PM ET] prices is too high for too many.
[2:15:28 PM ET] Inflation is front of mind, and we're
[2:15:28 PM ET] out there and the level of prices is too high for too many inflation is front of mind
[2:15:32 PM ET] getting this drumbeat of shocks where
[2:15:35 PM ET] firms and households
[2:15:37 PM ET] are anticipating the next shock
[2:15:37 PM ET] and we're getting this drumbeat of shocks where firms and households
[2:15:37 PM ET] before the last one faded. That
[2:15:41 PM ET] is exactly the
[2:15:41 PM ET] are anticipating the next shock before the last one faded
[2:15:41 PM ET] behavior the Federal Reserve is
[2:15:44 PM ET] taxed to avert.
[2:15:44 PM ET] that is exactly the behavior the federal reserve is taxed
[2:15:47 PM ET] Dan, you said something worried about breaking
[2:15:47 PM ET] something if they go too far too fast. Do you think that
[2:15:47 PM ET] to avert diane you said something worried about breaking something if they go too far too
[2:15:49 PM ET] anything in the market activity that we've gotten
[2:15:52 PM ET] since the last Fed meeting was a
[2:15:52 PM ET] fast do you think that anything in the market activity that we've gotten since the last fed meeting
[2:15:55 PM ET] result of the Fed rate
[2:15:55 PM ET] was a result
[2:15:55 PM ET] hike, or just a result of
[2:15:59 PM ET] discernment among investors about the AI?
[2:15:59 PM ET] of the fed rate hike or just a result of discernment
[2:16:01 PM ET] trade?
[2:16:01 PM ET] among investors about the ai trade
[2:16:01 PM ET] I don't think it was because of the
[2:16:05 PM ET] Fed rate hike at all. I think it
[2:16:05 PM ET] i don't think it was because of the fed rate hike at all
[2:16:07 PM ET] is, people are starting to
[2:16:07 PM ET] question what is going on, when will
[2:16:07 PM ET] i think it is people are starting to question what is going on when will
[2:16:10 PM ET] the cash flow turn
[2:16:14 PM ET] positive enough to pay for these
[2:16:14 PM ET] data centers that are now requiring
[2:16:14 PM ET] the cash flow turn positive enough to pay for
[2:16:17 PM ET] even more debt that the market
[2:16:17 PM ET] expected to absorb, and they're having to absorb that debt.
[2:16:17 PM ET] these data centers that are now requiring even more debt
[2:16:19 PM ET] against ballooning government debt.
[2:16:19 PM ET] that the market expected to absorb and they're having to absorb that debt
[2:16:22 PM ET] not just in the U.S., abroad as
[2:16:26 PM ET] well. We've got totally
[2:16:26 PM ET] against ballooning government debt not just in us abroad as well we've got
[2:16:26 PM ET] in the overall global
[2:16:28 PM ET] economy over $360
[2:16:28 PM ET] totally in the overall global economy over three hundred and sixty
[2:16:31 PM ET] trillion in debt, public
[2:16:31 PM ET] sector and private sector debt. That's a lot
[2:16:34 PM ET] of debt for
[2:16:34 PM ET] trillion dollars in debt public sector and private sector debt that's a lot of debt
[2:16:38 PM ET] investors to absorb. And now they're requiring
[2:16:38 PM ET] some compensation for it, and we
[2:16:38 PM ET] for investors to absorb and now they're requiring some compensation for it
[2:16:40 PM ET] know from
[2:16:44 PM ET] research that every percentage point
[2:16:44 PM ET] of debt for
[2:16:44 PM ET] and we know from research that every percentage point of debt
[2:16:47 PM ET] GDP, it's about 2.5 basis
[2:16:50 PM ET] points on the long bond, on the 10-year
[2:16:50 PM ET] for for gdp it's about two point five basis points
[2:16:50 PM ET] bond, and that
[2:16:54 PM ET] share has moved up from
[2:16:54 PM ET] 79% to 101%.
[2:16:54 PM ET] on the long bond on the ten year bond and the debt
[2:16:56 PM ET] in pre-pandemic
[2:16:56 PM ET] share has moved up from seventy nine percent to a hundred and one percent
[2:16:59 PM ET] to fiscal year 2026, when we
[2:16:59 PM ET] had $2 trillion
[2:16:59 PM ET] in pre pandemic to fiscal year twenty twenty six when we had
[2:16:59 PM ET] two trillion
[2:17:02 PM ET] in the deficit
[2:17:02 PM ET] in the deficit
[2:17:05 PM ET] alone. Richard Clarity, you're on the high ground on
[2:17:05 PM ET] this in your classic research work, Rick
[2:17:10 PM ET] Michigan, and Columbia looked at the regret
[2:17:10 PM ET] alone mister clarity you're on the high ground on this in your classic research work rick mentioned
[2:17:11 PM ET] of Japan when they raised
[2:17:11 PM ET] rates. We were wrong. Stop, go
[2:17:11 PM ET] and columbia looked at the regret of japan when they raised rates oh
[2:17:15 PM ET] policy 2000,
[2:17:17 PM ET] 2006 at the Bank of Japan.
[2:17:17 PM ET] we were wrong stop go policy two thousand
[2:17:17 PM ET] Rick Michigan alluded to your
[2:17:21 PM ET] research here. Are we
[2:17:21 PM ET] two thousand six at the bank of japan rick michigan alluded to your
[2:17:21 PM ET] scared stiff of
[2:17:24 PM ET] raising rates? Because we could be like bank.
[2:17:24 PM ET] research here are we scared stiff of raising rates
[2:17:27 PM ET] of Japan where we have to
[2:17:27 PM ET] reverse? I don't think
[2:17:27 PM ET] because we could be like bank of japan where we have to reverse
[2:17:30 PM ET] so, Tom. The challenge there, of course, is that
[2:17:33 PM ET] they spent two decades
[2:17:33 PM ET] i don't think so tom the the challenge there of course is that they spent
[2:17:33 PM ET] in deflation, and obviously that's not a
[2:17:37 PM ET] our challenge now but your
[2:17:37 PM ET] two decades in in in in deflation and and obviously that's not
[2:17:37 PM ET] question does raise an important point.
[2:17:40 PM ET] not just in the US, but
[2:17:40 PM ET] our our challenge now but your question does raise an important point
[2:17:43 PM ET] globally, with the exception of a couple countries like
[2:17:43 PM ET] Germany and Switzerland, most advanced economies
[2:17:43 PM ET] not just in the us but globally with the exception of a couple countries like germany
[2:17:45 PM ET] have 100% of GDP or
[2:17:48 PM ET] more of debt.
[2:17:48 PM ET] switzerland most advanced economies have a hundred percent of gdp or more of
[2:17:51 PM ET] We're in a period we're no
[2:17:51 PM ET] of debt we're in a period
[2:17:51 PM ET] longer in stagnation. You know, the decade
[2:17:55 PM ET] before the pandemic, rates were
[2:17:55 PM ET] below growth. You had
[2:17:55 PM ET] we're no longer in stagnation you know the decade before the pandemic rates were below
[2:17:58 PM ET] negative rates in
[2:18:01 PM ET] Europe. And so we really have a
[2:18:01 PM ET] were below growth you had negative rates in in in europe and so we really have
[2:18:01 PM ET] global repricing of sovereign
[2:18:04 PM ET] risk, which is one of the reasons why bond yields
[2:18:07 PM ET] are 5% now and not
[2:18:07 PM ET] a global repricing of sovereign risk which is one of the reason why bond yields
[2:18:07 PM ET] 1.5% as they were 15 years
[2:18:10 PM ET] ago. And over time, what that does mean,
[2:18:10 PM ET] are five percent now and not one and a half percent as they were fifteen years ago
[2:18:11 PM ET] Tom, is governments will have less
[2:18:14 PM ET] fiscal space to deal with future.
[2:18:14 PM ET] and and over time what that does mean tom is governments will have
[2:18:17 PM ET] downturns. That's going to put more pressure
[2:18:19 PM ET] on central banks. Just because of time, we're going
[2:18:19 PM ET] less fiscal space to deal with future downturns
[2:18:19 PM ET] got such wonderful guests, then are we
[2:18:19 PM ET] gonna put more pressure on central bank just because of time we got such wonderful guests
[2:18:23 PM ET] losing our degrees of freedom? Are
[2:18:23 PM ET] then are we losing our degrees of freedom
[2:18:25 PM ET] we so wrapped up in a nominal
[2:18:25 PM ET] GDP bubble, AI and the
[2:18:28 PM ET] rest, that the ECB, lack of
[2:18:28 PM ET] are we so wrapped up in a nominal gdp bubble ai and arrest
[2:18:31 PM ET] degrees of freedom, Paris, whatever.
[2:18:31 PM ET] the United States, name your
[2:18:31 PM ET] that the ecb lack of degrees of freedom paris whatever
[2:18:34 PM ET] distraction. We're just losing
[2:18:38 PM ET] our suppleness in
[2:18:38 PM ET] the united states name your distraction we're just losing our
[2:18:38 PM ET] prosecuting. I think we're losing fiscal
[2:18:40 PM ET] degrees of freedom globally.
[2:18:40 PM ET] suppleness in prosecuting i i think we're losing fiscal degrees of freedom
[2:18:44 PM ET] Central banks have degrees of freedom, and in
[2:18:44 PM ET] a downturn when it happens, they'll have room to
[2:18:44 PM ET] globally central banks have degrees of freedom and in in a downturn when it happens they'll have room to
[2:18:46 PM ET] cut which they did not in the decade
[2:18:46 PM ET] before. We're losing fiscal degrees of
[2:18:49 PM ET] freedom for sure. I remember when we're losing that
[2:18:49 PM ET] to cut which they did not in the decade before we're we're losing fiscal degrees of freedom for sure
[2:18:53 PM ET] freedom, there was a phrase you used. I repeated
[2:18:56 PM ET] it recently. Lisa heard it. You said, an
[2:18:56 PM ET] remember when we're losing that freedom there was a phrase you used i repeated it recently lisa heard it
[2:18:56 PM ET] ounce of protection is worth a pound of cure. Do you remember
[2:18:58 PM ET] that? Now they're hiking. Does the
[2:19:02 PM ET] opposite apply? If you wait too
[2:19:02 PM ET] you said an ounce of protection is worth a pound of cure do you remember that
[2:19:02 PM ET] long, do you have to do more? And how problematic is
[2:19:02 PM ET] now they're hiking does the opposite apply if you wait too long do you have to do more
[2:19:05 PM ET] that? Again, we get into
[2:19:08 PM ET] communication, we get into the
[2:19:08 PM ET] fact that the bond markets have now
[2:19:08 PM ET] how problematic is that again we get into communication
[2:19:11 PM ET] priced in a total of three
[2:19:11 PM ET] we get into the fact that the bond markets have now priced in
[2:19:14 PM ET] hikes, potentially four hikes, depending on the
[2:19:14 PM ET] a total of three hikes potentially four hikes depending on the inflation data
[2:19:14 PM ET] inflation data. And that's one
[2:19:16 PM ET] reason why the Fed
[2:19:19 PM ET] thinks that the economy will begin and inflation will
[2:19:19 PM ET] and that's one reason why the fed thinks
[2:19:20 PM ET] begin to move down.
[2:19:23 PM ET] And so you can't get out of the
[2:19:23 PM ET] that the economy will begin and inflation will begin to move
[2:19:26 PM ET] connectivity between markets' expectations.
[2:19:26 PM ET] of the Fed's path and what the
[2:19:26 PM ET] down and so you you can't get out of the connectivity
[2:19:28 PM ET] Fed needs to do. And you want to make sure that
[2:19:28 PM ET] market's expectation of the fed's path and what the fed needs
[2:19:31 PM ET] both of those parts are on the same
[2:19:32 PM ET] page. Dan, let's talk about that spread.
[2:19:32 PM ET] to do and you wanna make sure that both of those parts are are on the same page dan
[2:19:34 PM ET] Let's wrap it up. Front end of the yield curve around
[2:19:37 PM ET] 475. We're comfortably above the policy
[2:19:37 PM ET] talk about that spread let's wrap it up front end of the yield curve around four seventy five
[2:19:38 PM ET] rate. We've talked a lot about this. How do you think
[2:19:40 PM ET] that spread's going to resolve itself?
[2:19:40 PM ET] we're comfortably above the policy rate we've talked a lot about this how do you think that spread's gonna
[2:19:44 PM ET] The spread between where the policy rate is right
[2:19:44 PM ET] now and where two is a price in the market this afternoon.
[2:19:44 PM ET] resolve itself the spread between where the policy rate is right now
[2:19:46 PM ET] and where two is a price in the market this afternoon
[2:19:49 PM ET] Well, I hope it
[2:19:49 PM ET] doesn't narrow too far and invert,
[2:19:49 PM ET] well i hope it doesn't narrow too far
[2:19:53 PM ET] Obviously, that is one of the biggest
[2:19:53 PM ET] things I think the Fed wants to
[2:19:53 PM ET] and invert obviously that is one of the biggest
[2:19:56 PM ET] avoid. What I'm really worried about
[2:19:59 PM ET] is that we could see more upward
[2:19:59 PM ET] things i think the fed wants to avoid what i'm really worried
[2:19:59 PM ET] pressure and certainly a floor
[2:20:03 PM ET] forming under the bond market in terms
[2:20:03 PM ET] about is that we could see more upward pressure and certainly a
[2:20:06 PM ET] of
[2:20:07 PM ET] outside
[2:20:07 PM ET] the bond
[2:20:07 PM ET] box
[2:20:08 PM ET] of, you
[2:20:08 PM ET] floor forming under the bond market in terms of outside the box
[2:20:09 PM ET] know
[2:20:09 PM ET] potentially six percent of the
[2:20:10 PM ET] on
[2:20:10 PM ET] the long
[2:20:11 PM ET] bond.
[2:20:12 PM ET] Historically, that's
[2:20:12 PM ET] not
[2:20:13 PM ET] high, but it is
[2:20:13 PM ET] of you know potentially six percent on the long bond
[2:20:13 PM ET] high
[2:20:14 PM ET] relative
[2:20:14 PM ET] to
[2:20:14 PM ET] recent
[2:20:15 PM ET] history, and it is
[2:20:16 PM ET] high
[2:20:16 PM ET] historically that's not high but it is high relative to recent history and it is high
[2:20:16 PM ET] relative to the
[2:20:17 PM ET] a
[2:20:17 PM ET] lot of
[2:20:18 PM ET] the
[2:20:18 PM ET] debt that's
[2:20:18 PM ET] been
[2:20:19 PM ET] priced
[2:20:19 PM ET] out
[2:20:19 PM ET] there.
[2:20:19 PM ET] What I'm also worried
[2:20:20 PM ET] about
[2:20:20 PM ET] is how we're going to be able to do
[2:20:20 PM ET] relative to a lot of the debt that's been priced out there what i'm also worried about is
[2:20:21 PM ET] much
[2:20:21 PM ET] short-term debt.
[2:20:22 PM ET] we're
[2:20:22 PM ET] rolling
[2:20:23 PM ET] over
[2:20:24 PM ET] now.
[2:20:24 PM ET] and is going to be
[2:20:25 PM ET] repriced at higher
[2:20:25 PM ET] how much short term debt we're rolling over now and is going to be repriced at
[2:20:27 PM ET] rates.
[2:20:27 PM ET] and that interest
[2:20:28 PM ET] expense on the debt
[2:20:28 PM ET] is one of
[2:20:29 PM ET] the
[2:20:29 PM ET] fastest growing
[2:20:30 PM ET] categories, of
[2:20:30 PM ET] higher rates and that interest expense and the debt is one of the
[2:20:31 PM ET] course of the debt.
[2:20:32 PM ET] right
[2:20:33 PM ET] now, and that is
[2:20:34 PM ET] fastest growing categories of course of the debt right now and that is
[2:20:34 PM ET] problematic.
[2:20:35 PM ET] So, I'm worried about
[2:20:35 PM ET] those
[2:20:36 PM ET] things.
[2:20:37 PM ET] I'm also
[2:20:37 PM ET] worried about
[2:20:37 PM ET] the fact
[2:20:38 PM ET] that
[2:20:38 PM ET] problematic so i'm worried about those things i'm also worried about the fact that
[2:20:39 PM ET] this
[2:20:39 PM ET] is a federal
[2:20:40 PM ET] Reserve that is
[2:20:41 PM ET] showing caution and
[2:20:42 PM ET] instead
[2:20:43 PM ET] of
[2:20:43 PM ET] conviction,
[2:20:43 PM ET] this is a federal reserve that is showing caution instead of conviction
[2:20:44 PM ET] calibration. That
[2:20:45 PM ET] is a little
[2:20:45 PM ET] calibration that is
[2:20:46 PM ET] bit hard
[2:20:47 PM ET] when I
[2:20:48 PM ET] see over
[2:20:48 PM ET] a little bit hard when i see
[2:20:49 PM ET] five
[2:20:49 PM ET] years, and I
[2:20:50 PM ET] don't
[2:20:50 PM ET] think the shocks
[2:20:51 PM ET] are going away
[2:20:51 PM ET] over five years and i don't think the shocks
[2:20:52 PM ET] anytime
[2:20:52 PM ET] time
[2:20:53 PM ET] soon.
[2:20:53 PM ET] And that's
[2:20:54 PM ET] something
[2:20:54 PM ET] that
[2:20:54 PM ET] I talked
[2:20:55 PM ET] about
[2:20:55 PM ET] before they're no
[2:20:56 PM ET] going away anytime soon and that's something that
[2:20:56 PM ET] longer
[2:20:58 PM ET] episodic.
[2:20:58 PM ET] they're
[2:20:59 PM ET] persistent. And the idea
[2:20:59 PM ET] i talked about before they're no longer episodic they're persistent
[2:21:00 PM ET] that
[2:21:00 PM ET] we're learning
[2:21:00 PM ET] this
[2:21:01 PM ET] drum beat, and it's
[2:21:01 PM ET] a
[2:21:02 PM ET] rhythm that's like
[2:21:03 PM ET] playing in our
[2:21:03 PM ET] and the idea that we're learning this drumbeat and into rhythm that's like
[2:21:03 PM ET] head that
[2:21:03 PM ET] you
[2:21:04 PM ET] can't get rid
[2:21:05 PM ET] of. That is
[2:21:06 PM ET] not.
[2:21:06 PM ET] playing in our head that you can't get rid of yeah that is not
[2:21:06 PM ET] what we're
[2:21:07 PM ET] we should be
[2:21:08 PM ET] seeing right
[2:21:08 PM ET] now.
[2:21:09 PM ET] Diana's good to see you. Always
[2:21:09 PM ET] says, thank
[2:21:10 PM ET] you. Dan's wanting
[2:21:10 PM ET] good
[2:21:11 PM ET] what we should be seeing right now dan it's good to see you always says thank you dan swan
[2:21:11 PM ET] KPMG, just on the long
[2:21:12 PM ET] bond, I'm
[2:21:13 PM ET] getting
[2:21:13 PM ET] close to six.
[2:21:14 PM ET] Sounds like a big
[2:21:15 PM ET] number. The 30-year
[2:21:15 PM ET] kpmg just on the long bond i'm getting close to six sounds like a big number
[2:21:16 PM ET] year 20 days ago was at
[2:21:17 PM ET] 573, so we came
[2:21:18 PM ET] pretty
[2:21:18 PM ET] close. The 30-year yield is
[2:21:19 PM ET] has come
[2:21:19 PM ET] in
[2:21:19 PM ET] the thirty year twenty days ago was at five seventy three so we came pretty close the thirty year yield has come in
[2:21:20 PM ET] some 40 basis
[2:21:21 PM ET] points in the last few
[2:21:22 PM ET] weeks.
[2:21:24 PM ET] Yeah, with the slight to quality, because of the
[2:21:24 PM ET] sell-off, possibly that
[2:21:24 PM ET] some forty basis points in the last few weeks yeah with this flight to quality because of the sell off
[2:21:24 PM ET] we have
[2:21:25 PM ET] been seeing the
[2:21:25 PM ET] in AI.
[2:21:26 PM ET] I just think it's
[2:21:27 PM ET] notable if you take a
[2:21:27 PM ET] look
[2:21:27 PM ET] at the
[2:21:28 PM ET] actual
[2:21:28 PM ET] statement, which
[2:21:28 PM ET] is
[2:21:28 PM ET] possibly that we have been seeing in ai i just think it's notable if you take a look at the
[2:21:29 PM ET] incredibly
[2:21:30 PM ET] short.
[2:21:30 PM ET] not
[2:21:30 PM ET] only
[2:21:30 PM ET] did they
[2:21:31 PM ET] talk
[2:21:32 PM ET] about
[2:21:33 PM ET] how inflation
[2:21:33 PM ET] is a lot of
[2:21:33 PM ET] statement which is incredibly short not only did they talk about
[2:21:33 PM ET] their
[2:21:33 PM ET] main
[2:21:34 PM ET] how inflation's their main issue
[2:21:34 PM ET] issue?
[2:21:35 PM ET] They also said that they're not going to be able to
[2:21:35 PM ET] that
[2:21:35 PM ET] economic
[2:21:36 PM ET] activity is
[2:21:36 PM ET] expanding
[2:21:36 PM ET] at
[2:21:37 PM ET] a strong
[2:21:38 PM ET] pace.
[2:21:38 PM ET] upgraded from the
[2:21:38 PM ET] saying
[2:21:39 PM ET] expanding at
[2:21:39 PM ET] a
[2:21:39 PM ET] they also said that economic activity is expanding at a strong pace
[2:21:39 PM ET] solid
[2:21:40 PM ET] pace.
[2:21:40 PM ET] In other
[2:21:41 PM ET] words, they
[2:21:41 PM ET] increased
[2:21:42 PM ET] their
[2:21:42 PM ET] upgraded from saying expanding at a solid pace in other words they increased their
[2:21:43 PM ET] assessment
[2:21:43 PM ET] the
[2:21:43 PM ET] underlying
[2:21:44 PM ET] economy.
[2:21:45 PM ET] and
[2:21:45 PM ET] then it's
[2:21:45 PM ET] the
[2:21:45 PM ET] at same
[2:21:46 PM ET] time they
[2:21:46 PM ET] said
[2:21:47 PM ET] essentially they
[2:21:47 PM ET] need
[2:21:47 PM ET] assessment of the underlying economy and then it's at the same
[2:21:47 PM ET] more
[2:21:48 PM ET] data to
[2:21:48 PM ET] decide
[2:21:48 PM ET] exactly
[2:21:49 PM ET] what the
[2:21:49 PM ET] appropriate
[2:21:50 PM ET] policy standards
[2:21:50 PM ET] stance
[2:21:50 PM ET] is.
[2:21:50 PM ET] time they said essentially they need more data to decide exactly what the appropriate policy stance is
[2:21:51 PM ET] There are a lot
[2:21:51 PM ET] of
[2:21:52 PM ET] contradictions,
[2:21:52 PM ET] wrapped
[2:21:52 PM ET] in
[2:21:53 PM ET] enigmas in
[2:21:54 PM ET] this
[2:21:54 PM ET] piece.
[2:21:56 PM ET] The accumulation of more information will
[2:21:56 PM ET] help the committee to take a look at the
[2:21:56 PM ET] there are a lot of contradictions wrapped in enigmas in this piece the
[2:21:56 PM ET] power of
[2:21:57 PM ET] policy
[2:21:57 PM ET] stance of the
[2:21:58 PM ET] appropriate
[2:21:58 PM ET] to
[2:21:59 PM ET] ensure a timely
[2:21:59 PM ET] accumulation of more information will help the committee determine the policy
[2:21:59 PM ET] return
[2:21:59 PM ET] of
[2:22:00 PM ET] inflation to the
[2:22:01 PM ET] committee's two
[2:22:01 PM ET] percent
[2:22:02 PM ET] goal. See you in
[2:22:02 PM ET] stands appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the committee's two percent goal
[2:22:02 PM ET] see you in december
[2:22:03 PM ET] December.
[2:22:03 PM ET] Well, what does timely
[2:22:04 PM ET] mean?
[2:22:04 PM ET] what does timely mean i mean
[2:22:05 PM ET] I McKee asked in the last
[2:22:06 PM ET] news
[2:22:06 PM ET] conference, you want to talk about the
[2:22:06 PM ET] timely
[2:22:07 PM ET] return to
[2:22:07 PM ET] asked in the last news conference you want a timely return to target
[2:22:08 PM ET] Target?
[2:22:08 PM ET] where
[2:22:09 PM ET] is
[2:22:09 PM ET] where is it
[2:22:10 PM ET] it?
[2:22:11 PM ET] Rich, what is
[2:22:11 PM ET] timely
[2:22:12 PM ET] mean?
[2:22:14 PM ET] Well, I think you have
[2:22:14 PM ET] it what is what rich what does timely mean
[2:22:15 PM ET] 19 opinions on
[2:22:15 PM ET] the
[2:22:16 PM ET] committee,
[2:22:17 PM ET] probably
[2:22:17 PM ET] on
[2:22:17 PM ET] well i think you have nineteen opinions on the committee probably on that
[2:22:17 PM ET] that.
[2:22:18 PM ET] but
[2:22:19 PM ET] certainly
[2:22:20 PM ET] inflation is a very important
[2:22:20 PM ET] especially on a core
[2:22:21 PM ET] measure,
[2:22:22 PM ET] falling down.
[2:22:22 PM ET] say,
[2:22:22 PM ET] but certainly inflation especially on a core measure of
[2:22:23 PM ET] below
[2:22:24 PM ET] 2.5% by the end of the
[2:22:24 PM ET] falling down say below two and a half percent
[2:22:25 PM ET] next year and
[2:22:26 PM ET] then basically down
[2:22:27 PM ET] to
[2:22:27 PM ET] 2% a year after
[2:22:28 PM ET] that, I mean would be
[2:22:29 PM ET] my
[2:22:29 PM ET] would be my
[2:22:29 PM ET] by the end of next year and then basically down to two percent a year after that i mean would be my
[2:22:30 PM ET] definition. And in
[2:22:31 PM ET] fairness
[2:22:31 PM ET] to the Fed,
[2:22:32 PM ET] would be my definition and and in fairness to the fed that
[2:22:33 PM ET] that's where
[2:22:33 PM ET] we
[2:22:33 PM ET] were in
[2:22:34 PM ET] 2024,
[2:22:35 PM ET] Core inflation was running
[2:22:36 PM ET] around
[2:22:37 PM ET] that's where we were in twenty twenty four core inflation was running around
[2:22:37 PM ET] two and a
[2:22:38 PM ET] half and you could
[2:22:38 PM ET] make
[2:22:38 PM ET] a
[2:22:39 PM ET] case
[2:22:40 PM ET] certainly, that's a
[2:22:40 PM ET] once
[2:22:41 PM ET] the
[2:22:41 PM ET] two and a half and you could make a case certainly
[2:22:41 PM ET] tariffs
[2:22:41 PM ET] were
[2:22:41 PM ET] through
[2:22:42 PM ET] the
[2:22:42 PM ET] system, we would be able to do
[2:22:43 PM ET] on the
[2:22:43 PM ET] that
[2:22:44 PM ET] path.
[2:22:44 PM ET] So I don't want to
[2:22:44 PM ET] dismiss the
[2:22:45 PM ET] that once the tariffs work through the system we would be on that
[2:22:45 PM ET] shocks.
[2:22:46 PM ET] shock
[2:22:46 PM ET] story
[2:22:46 PM ET] completely because
[2:22:47 PM ET] there
[2:22:47 PM ET] was
[2:22:47 PM ET] a
[2:22:48 PM ET] pretty
[2:22:48 PM ET] big
[2:22:48 PM ET] element
[2:22:48 PM ET] so i don't wanna dismiss the shock story completely because there there was a pretty big element of
[2:22:49 PM ET] of
[2:22:49 PM ET] that.
[2:22:50 PM ET] The question is we're about to
[2:22:50 PM ET] go
[2:22:50 PM ET] into 20
[2:22:52 PM ET] 2027.
[2:22:52 PM ET] core inflation is going
[2:22:52 PM ET] to
[2:22:52 PM ET] end the
[2:22:53 PM ET] year at
[2:22:53 PM ET] of that the question is we're about to go into twenty twenty seven core inflation is gonna end the year
[2:22:54 PM ET] 3.1,
[2:22:55 PM ET] 3.2.
[2:22:56 PM ET] and
[2:22:57 PM ET] clearly
[2:22:58 PM ET] three point one three point two and
[2:22:58 PM ET] moving in the middle of the
[2:22:58 PM ET] wrong
[2:22:59 PM ET] direction.
[2:23:00 PM ET] News conference seven minutes
[2:23:01 PM ET] away.
[2:23:01 PM ET] and clearly moving in the wrong direction news conference seven minutes away
[2:23:01 PM ET] Stephanie Rotherwolf
[2:23:02 PM ET] research
[2:23:02 PM ET] joins us now for
[2:23:02 PM ET] more than a
[2:23:03 PM ET] Stephanie,
[2:23:03 PM ET] unchanged.
[2:23:04 PM ET] on policy
[2:23:04 PM ET] to
[2:23:05 PM ET] two dissent.
[2:23:05 PM ET] What do
[2:23:05 PM ET] are you
[2:23:05 PM ET] stephanie roth of wolfe research joins us now for more stephanie unchanged on policy two dissents
[2:23:06 PM ET] expecting
[2:23:06 PM ET] to hear from
[2:23:06 PM ET] the
[2:23:07 PM ET] chairman once
[2:23:07 PM ET] this
[2:23:07 PM ET] news
[2:23:08 PM ET] conference gets
[2:23:09 PM ET] what are you expecting to hear from the chairman once this news conference gets underway
[2:23:09 PM ET] underway.
[2:23:10 PM ET] The most important
[2:23:10 PM ET] thing we're going to
[2:23:11 PM ET] hear is
[2:23:11 PM ET] his
[2:23:11 PM ET] answer
[2:23:12 PM ET] to why are
[2:23:12 PM ET] we not going to be able to do
[2:23:12 PM ET] not
[2:23:13 PM ET] hiking
[2:23:13 PM ET] today when
[2:23:14 PM ET] the economy is
[2:23:14 PM ET] the most important thing we're gonna hear is his answer to
[2:23:15 PM ET] expanding
[2:23:15 PM ET] and
[2:23:15 PM ET] at a strong
[2:23:16 PM ET] why are we not hiking today when the economy is expanding at a strong pace
[2:23:16 PM ET] pace, according to
[2:23:16 PM ET] the
[2:23:17 PM ET] statement.
[2:23:18 PM ET] and
[2:23:19 PM ET] the inflation
[2:23:20 PM ET] data
[2:23:20 PM ET] have come in quite
[2:23:21 PM ET] according to the statement and the inflation data have come in quite high
[2:23:21 PM ET] high. We're now tracking
[2:23:21 PM ET] core
[2:23:22 PM ET] PC of
[2:23:23 PM ET] 0.35 or so
[2:23:24 PM ET] percent. I think that's
[2:23:25 PM ET] what Lisa Cook was
[2:23:26 PM ET] now tracking core pc of point three five or so percent
[2:23:26 PM ET] telling
[2:23:26 PM ET] us. It's not just a
[2:23:27 PM ET] political
[2:23:28 PM ET] statement,
[2:23:28 PM ET] but
[2:23:29 PM ET] that she believes that
[2:23:30 PM ET] perhaps maybe we're the
[2:23:30 PM ET] i think that's what lisa cook was telling us it's not just a political statement
[2:23:31 PM ET] Fed
[2:23:31 PM ET] is really just
[2:23:32 PM ET] behind
[2:23:32 PM ET] the curve to some
[2:23:33 PM ET] but that she believes that perhaps maybe we're the fed is really just behind the curve to some extent
[2:23:33 PM ET] extent.
[2:23:33 PM ET] i also want
[2:23:34 PM ET] I also want to ask, or I would
[2:23:35 PM ET] love
[2:23:35 PM ET] to hear somebody
[2:23:37 PM ET] ask, what
[2:23:37 PM ET] is
[2:23:37 PM ET] ask or would love to hear somebody ask
[2:23:37 PM ET] the
[2:23:38 PM ET] additional
[2:23:38 PM ET] information
[2:23:38 PM ET] that will have to
[2:23:39 PM ET] help
[2:23:39 PM ET] the
[2:23:39 PM ET] committee
[2:23:39 PM ET] decide
[2:23:40 PM ET] what
[2:23:40 PM ET] an
[2:23:40 PM ET] appropriate
[2:23:41 PM ET] what is the additional information that will help
[2:23:41 PM ET] policy
[2:23:41 PM ET] stance
[2:23:42 PM ET] is. We already
[2:23:43 PM ET] got
[2:23:43 PM ET] committee decide what an appropriate policy stance is we already got
[2:23:44 PM ET] CPI.
[2:23:44 PM ET] we already
[2:23:45 PM ET] got
[2:23:45 PM ET] PPI, we've
[2:23:46 PM ET] gotten
[2:23:46 PM ET] a lot
[2:23:46 PM ET] of
[2:23:47 PM ET] other
[2:23:48 PM ET] granular
[2:23:48 PM ET] cpi we already got ppi we've gotten a lot of other granular
[2:23:49 PM ET] aspects.
[2:23:49 PM ET] What do you think they're waiting
[2:23:50 PM ET] aspects what do you think they're waiting for
[2:23:50 PM ET] for?
[2:23:51 PM ET] I
[2:23:52 PM ET] think
[2:23:52 PM ET] they're waiting for
[2:23:52 PM ET] the
[2:23:53 PM ET] midterms to
[2:23:53 PM ET] be
[2:23:53 PM ET] over
[2:23:54 PM ET] and
[2:23:54 PM ET] to
[2:23:55 PM ET] for
[2:23:55 PM ET] i think they're waiting for the the midterms to be over and and to
[2:23:55 PM ET] December to
[2:23:55 PM ET] be
[2:23:56 PM ET] the
[2:23:56 PM ET] time
[2:23:56 PM ET] for
[2:23:56 PM ET] them to be
[2:23:57 PM ET] moving
[2:23:58 PM ET] again.
[2:23:58 PM ET] I think there is
[2:23:59 PM ET] some
[2:23:59 PM ET] element
[2:23:59 PM ET] of it
[2:23:59 PM ET] december to be the the the time for them to be moving again
[2:24:00 PM ET] being
[2:24:01 PM ET] political and them not
[2:24:01 PM ET] that
[2:24:02 PM ET] feeling
[2:24:02 PM ET] that now is the right
[2:24:03 PM ET] time,
[2:24:03 PM ET] i think there is some element of it being political and that then that
[2:24:04 PM ET] but all
[2:24:04 PM ET] feeling that now is the right time but
[2:24:05 PM ET] signs point to
[2:24:06 PM ET] December being.
[2:24:07 PM ET] nearly
[2:24:08 PM ET] certain and
[2:24:08 PM ET] the data certainly
[2:24:09 PM ET] are
[2:24:09 PM ET] all signs point to december being nearly
[2:24:09 PM ET] consistent with
[2:24:10 PM ET] that. Stephanie, let me ask
[2:24:10 PM ET] you the
[2:24:11 PM ET] question I asked
[2:24:12 PM ET] Torsten
[2:24:12 PM ET] certain and the the data certainly are consistent with that stephanie let me ask you the question to
[2:24:13 PM ET] Slack.
[2:24:13 PM ET] When does nominal
[2:24:14 PM ET] GDP come
[2:24:14 PM ET] towards in slack when does nominal gdp come in
[2:24:15 PM ET] in?
[2:24:17 PM ET] When does it come
[2:24:18 PM ET] in?
[2:24:18 PM ET] when does it come in
[2:24:19 PM ET] When does it lower?
[2:24:20 PM ET] When does it finally come
[2:24:20 PM ET] settle down?
[2:24:21 PM ET] away from
[2:24:22 PM ET] the
[2:24:22 PM ET] boom economy
[2:24:23 PM ET] we're
[2:24:23 PM ET] when does it lower when does it finally settle down
[2:24:23 PM ET] away from the boom economy we're living
[2:24:24 PM ET] living. We're going to see it next
[2:24:25 PM ET] year, in the middle part of next
[2:24:26 PM ET] year, you'll start to
[2:24:27 PM ET] see
[2:24:27 PM ET] the inflation
[2:24:28 PM ET] we're gonna see it next year in the middle part of next year you'll start
[2:24:29 PM ET] data sort of roll off on a year-by-year
[2:24:29 PM ET] to see the inflation data sort of roll off on a year over year basis
[2:24:29 PM ET] basis.
[2:24:30 PM ET] You'll start to see nominal
[2:24:31 PM ET] GDP come
[2:24:31 PM ET] back down
[2:24:31 PM ET] towards
[2:24:32 PM ET] something
[2:24:32 PM ET] like
[2:24:33 PM ET] 5%,
[2:24:33 PM ET] in which
[2:24:34 PM ET] case
[2:24:34 PM ET] that's
[2:24:34 PM ET] an
[2:24:34 PM ET] start to see nominal gdp come back down towards something like five percent in which case
[2:24:35 PM ET] environment
[2:24:35 PM ET] where you
[2:24:36 PM ET] know
[2:24:36 PM ET] it
[2:24:36 PM ET] it's
[2:24:37 PM ET] the
[2:24:37 PM ET] environment is
[2:24:37 PM ET] much
[2:24:38 PM ET] more
[2:24:38 PM ET] aligned
[2:24:39 PM ET] and
[2:24:39 PM ET] that's an environment where you know the environment is much more aligned
[2:24:39 PM ET] rates
[2:24:39 PM ET] of
[2:24:40 PM ET] around
[2:24:40 PM ET] five
[2:24:40 PM ET] are
[2:24:41 PM ET] consistent
[2:24:41 PM ET] with
[2:24:41 PM ET] nominal
[2:24:42 PM ET] GDP
[2:24:42 PM ET] or on the
[2:24:42 PM ET] same
[2:24:43 PM ET] level, which
[2:24:43 PM ET] is
[2:24:43 PM ET] and rates of around five percent are consistent with nominal gdp around the same level
[2:24:44 PM ET] consistent to
[2:24:44 PM ET] the
[2:24:44 PM ET] regime we're
[2:24:45 PM ET] were in the
[2:24:45 PM ET] the
[2:24:46 PM ET] mid-1990s which
[2:24:46 PM ET] is
[2:24:47 PM ET] probably
[2:24:47 PM ET] similar
[2:24:47 PM ET] to
[2:24:47 PM ET] where we are
[2:24:48 PM ET] which is consistent to the regime we were in the in the the mid nineteen nineties which
[2:24:48 PM ET] today, as opposed
[2:24:49 PM ET] to the
[2:24:49 PM ET] last day.
[2:24:49 PM ET] decade or
[2:24:50 PM ET] so
[2:24:51 PM ET] where
[2:24:51 PM ET] probably similar to where we are today as opposed to the last decade or so
[2:24:51 PM ET] where
[2:24:52 PM ET] the
[2:24:52 PM ET] ten
[2:24:53 PM ET] you
[2:24:53 PM ET] know traded at
[2:24:54 PM ET] a
[2:24:54 PM ET] decent gap to
[2:24:55 PM ET] nominal
[2:24:56 PM ET] GDP.
[2:24:56 PM ET] we're
[2:24:56 PM ET] probably
[2:24:56 PM ET] not in that
[2:24:56 PM ET] the the ten year you know traded at a decent gap
[2:24:57 PM ET] environment
[2:24:58 PM ET] anymore.
[2:24:58 PM ET] It's not QE.
[2:24:59 PM ET] it's not a
[2:24:59 PM ET] low
[2:25:00 PM ET] R star
[2:25:00 PM ET] to nominal gdp we're probably not in that environment anymore it's
[2:25:01 PM ET] environment. We're
[2:25:01 PM ET] probably
[2:25:02 PM ET] in a place
[2:25:02 PM ET] where it
[2:25:03 PM ET] 5% is the
[2:25:03 PM ET] qe it's not a low our star environment we're probably in a place where it
[2:25:03 PM ET] correct
[2:25:04 PM ET] level
[2:25:04 PM ET] for the 10
[2:25:05 PM ET] year.
[2:25:05 PM ET] So, what is the
[2:25:06 PM ET] difference between strong and
[2:25:07 PM ET] percent is the correct level for the ten year stephanie what is the difference between strong and solid
[2:25:07 PM ET] solid
[2:25:08 PM ET] And what is the
[2:25:08 PM ET] importance of
[2:25:09 PM ET] that
[2:25:10 PM ET] exercise? Is
[2:25:10 PM ET] this the
[2:25:10 PM ET] business of
[2:25:10 PM ET] the
[2:25:11 PM ET] Fed Share wants us to
[2:25:12 PM ET] in?
[2:25:12 PM ET] and what is the importance of that exercise is this the business that the fed share wants us in
[2:25:12 PM ET] These
[2:25:12 PM ET] little
[2:25:14 PM ET] changes? Lisa pointed
[2:25:15 PM ET] it out. I'm hearing
[2:25:15 PM ET] it
[2:25:16 PM ET] from
[2:25:16 PM ET] Other Wall Street
[2:25:17 PM ET] guys as well going
[2:25:17 PM ET] these little changes lisa pointed it out
[2:25:18 PM ET] into this news
[2:25:19 PM ET] conference: the importance of
[2:25:19 PM ET] i'm hearing it from other wall street guys as well going into this news conference the importance of
[2:25:20 PM ET] a single
[2:25:21 PM ET] a single word
[2:25:21 PM ET] word changing. Stephanie, what
[2:25:22 PM ET] is the importance of that
[2:25:23 PM ET] exercise?
[2:25:23 PM ET] changing stephanie what is the importance of that exercise
[2:25:25 PM ET] It does tell you
[2:25:26 PM ET] something important.
[2:25:27 PM ET] Well, certainly it's signaling,
[2:25:28 PM ET] which
[2:25:28 PM ET] is odd in an
[2:25:28 PM ET] it it does tell you something important well certainly it's a a signaling which is odd
[2:25:29 PM ET] environment where they probably should have
[2:25:30 PM ET] been hiking
[2:25:31 PM ET] today, given the
[2:25:31 PM ET] an environment where they probably should have been hiking today
[2:25:32 PM ET] breadth
[2:25:32 PM ET] of data and they're
[2:25:33 PM ET] not, but it's
[2:25:34 PM ET] telling
[2:25:34 PM ET] you that, well,
[2:25:35 PM ET] growth is
[2:25:36 PM ET] not only
[2:25:36 PM ET] given the the breadth of data and they're not but it's telling you that while growth is
[2:25:37 PM ET] good, but it appears to be
[2:25:38 PM ET] potentially even getting
[2:25:39 PM ET] better. Our sense is
[2:25:40 PM ET] actually
[2:25:40 PM ET] is not only good but it appears to be potentially even getting better
[2:25:41 PM ET] that, my own view at
[2:25:42 PM ET] least, is that the
[2:25:43 PM ET] data are probably peeking
[2:25:43 PM ET] our sense is actually that my own view at least is that
[2:25:44 PM ET] around
[2:25:44 PM ET] now and you'll start to
[2:25:45 PM ET] see a
[2:25:46 PM ET] deceleration but that's
[2:25:47 PM ET] not
[2:25:47 PM ET] what
[2:25:47 PM ET] they're
[2:25:47 PM ET] the data are probably peaking around now and you'll start to see deceleration
[2:25:47 PM ET] saying in the
[2:25:48 PM ET] statement
[2:25:48 PM ET] In the statement,
[2:25:48 PM ET] they're
[2:25:49 PM ET] saying growth is a very important
[2:25:49 PM ET] not
[2:25:50 PM ET] only
[2:25:50 PM ET] doing
[2:25:51 PM ET] well,
[2:25:51 PM ET] but
[2:25:51 PM ET] that's not what they're saying in the statement in the statement they're saying growth is not only
[2:25:52 PM ET] it's
[2:25:52 PM ET] at
[2:25:52 PM ET] risk of getting
[2:25:53 PM ET] doing well but it's a risk of getting better
[2:25:53 PM ET] better.
[2:25:54 PM ET] Rich, can
[2:25:54 PM ET] you
[2:25:54 PM ET] be the
[2:25:54 PM ET] Fed
[2:25:56 PM ET] whisperer?
[2:25:56 PM ET] What
[2:25:56 PM ET] is
[2:25:56 PM ET] this
[2:25:57 PM ET] strong versus the
[2:25:58 PM ET] rich can you be the fed whisperer what is strong versus solid
[2:25:58 PM ET] solid?
[2:25:58 PM ET] What does
[2:25:58 PM ET] that
[2:25:59 PM ET] mean to
[2:25:59 PM ET] you?
[2:26:00 PM ET] Well, I'll do
[2:26:00 PM ET] my
[2:26:01 PM ET] best.
[2:26:01 PM ET] to say
[2:26:03 PM ET] I would
[2:26:03 PM ET] what does that mean to you well i'll i'll do my best i'll say so i would
[2:26:03 PM ET] I would say
[2:26:03 PM ET] that
[2:26:04 PM ET] solid
[2:26:04 PM ET] is
[2:26:04 PM ET] Fed
[2:26:05 PM ET] for
[2:26:05 PM ET] at
[2:26:06 PM ET] roughly
[2:26:06 PM ET] at
[2:26:07 PM ET] trend.
[2:26:07 PM ET] i would i would say that solid is is fed speak for at roughly at
[2:26:07 PM ET] I think the Fed's
[2:26:07 PM ET] view of the
[2:26:08 PM ET] trend
[2:26:08 PM ET] growth
[2:26:08 PM ET] is
[2:26:09 PM ET] 2,
[2:26:10 PM ET] 1.
[2:26:10 PM ET] And so I
[2:26:10 PM ET] think
[2:26:11 PM ET] strong means
[2:26:11 PM ET] trend i think the fed's view of trend growth is two two one
[2:26:11 PM ET] above
[2:26:12 PM ET] trend.
[2:26:12 PM ET] That might be
[2:26:13 PM ET] clear if
[2:26:13 PM ET] they just
[2:26:13 PM ET] said
[2:26:13 PM ET] anything
[2:26:14 PM ET] above
[2:26:14 PM ET] clear
[2:26:14 PM ET] and so i think strong means above trend now it might be clear
[2:26:15 PM ET] but
[2:26:16 PM ET] yeah.
[2:26:16 PM ET] I mean
[2:26:17 PM ET] John, I look at this
[2:26:17 PM ET] and
[2:26:17 PM ET] I
[2:26:17 PM ET] if they just said there we go above clarity but yes
[2:26:17 PM ET] go,
[2:26:18 PM ET] i mean john i look at this and i go okay
[2:26:18 PM ET] okay, so we're going
[2:26:19 PM ET] to
[2:26:19 PM ET] raise
[2:26:19 PM ET] in
[2:26:20 PM ET] December and this
[2:26:20 PM ET] in
[2:26:20 PM ET] some
[2:26:20 PM ET] people
[2:26:21 PM ET] say one's
[2:26:21 PM ET] three
[2:26:22 PM ET] so we're gonna raise in december and this and some people say once three whatever
[2:26:23 PM ET] whatever. Where are we going to be?
[2:26:24 PM ET] April 28th
[2:26:24 PM ET] next
[2:26:25 PM ET] year june
[2:26:26 PM ET] 9th next
[2:26:27 PM ET] year,
[2:26:27 PM ET] July
[2:26:27 PM ET] where are we gonna be april twenty eighth next year june ninth next year
[2:26:28 PM ET] 28th
[2:26:28 PM ET] when nominal
[2:26:29 PM ET] GDP
[2:26:30 PM ET] finally comes
[2:26:30 PM ET] in
[2:26:30 PM ET] from
[2:26:31 PM ET] this
[2:26:31 PM ET] july twenty eighth when nominal gdp finally comes in from the
[2:26:31 PM ET] crazy
[2:26:32 PM ET] level. It's a
[2:26:32 PM ET] whole
[2:26:33 PM ET] new
[2:26:34 PM ET] dialogue.
[2:26:34 PM ET] What kind of assumptions
[2:26:35 PM ET] underpin
[2:26:35 PM ET] that
[2:26:35 PM ET] view
[2:26:36 PM ET] makes
[2:26:36 PM ET] crazy level it's a whole new dialogue what kind of
[2:26:36 PM ET] normal GDP is going
[2:26:36 PM ET] to
[2:26:37 PM ET] roll
[2:26:38 PM ET] over?
[2:26:38 PM ET] What's your view on
[2:26:39 PM ET] CapEx? What are the
[2:26:39 PM ET] tech players
[2:26:40 PM ET] assumptions underpin that view exactly gdp is gonna roll over what's your view on capex what are the tech
[2:26:40 PM ET] doing? How much money they're
[2:26:41 PM ET] Exactly.
[2:26:42 PM ET] Got to make some calls right
[2:26:43 PM ET] now on AI and
[2:26:44 PM ET] tech. Stephanie
[2:26:45 PM ET] players doing how much money they're raising gotta make some calls right now on ai and tech it's
[2:26:45 PM ET] says on this, it's
[2:26:46 PM ET] brilliant. I mean, okay, next year
[2:26:47 PM ET] at
[2:26:47 PM ET] it finally comes
[2:26:48 PM ET] in.
[2:26:49 PM ET] stephanie says on this it's brilliant i mean okay next year it finally comes in
[2:26:49 PM ET] We're
[2:26:50 PM ET] completely unprepared for
[2:26:52 PM ET] that
[2:26:53 PM ET] William says one of them, by the
[2:26:53 PM ET] way.
[2:26:53 PM ET] we're completely unprepared for that william says one of dump by the way
[2:26:54 PM ET] Williams has
[2:26:54 PM ET] williams has been
[2:26:55 PM ET] been
[2:26:55 PM ET] pretty outspoken on
[2:26:56 PM ET] that. He thinks one and
[2:26:57 PM ET] done is his best
[2:26:58 PM ET] guess. Can you
[2:26:58 PM ET] share your best
[2:26:59 PM ET] guess with us
[2:26:59 PM ET] pretty outspoken on that yeah he thinks one and done is his best guess can you share your best guess
[2:26:59 PM ET] the
[2:26:59 PM ET] this afternoon?
[2:27:00 PM ET] Is it one and
[2:27:01 PM ET] done?
[2:27:01 PM ET] Well, what are
[2:27:02 PM ET] view has
[2:27:02 PM ET] been
[2:27:02 PM ET] they
[2:27:03 PM ET] will go in
[2:27:03 PM ET] December
[2:27:03 PM ET] us this afternoon is it one and done well what our our view has been they will go in december
[2:27:04 PM ET] and depending on the
[2:27:05 PM ET] date
[2:27:05 PM ET] flow,
[2:27:05 PM ET] they
[2:27:05 PM ET] could
[2:27:05 PM ET] go
[2:27:06 PM ET] again in
[2:27:07 PM ET] March.
[2:27:07 PM ET] That
[2:27:08 PM ET] scenario
[2:27:08 PM ET] is
[2:27:08 PM ET] and depending on the data flow they could go again in march that's
[2:27:09 PM ET] essentially
[2:27:09 PM ET] their
[2:27:09 PM ET] they're
[2:27:09 PM ET] hiking a
[2:27:09 PM ET] total
[2:27:10 PM ET] of
[2:27:10 PM ET] three
[2:27:10 PM ET] times and
[2:27:11 PM ET] then they're
[2:27:12 PM ET] done.
[2:27:12 PM ET] scenario is essentially they're hiking a total of three times and then they're done
[2:27:12 PM ET] and that
[2:27:13 PM ET] takes
[2:27:13 PM ET] back
[2:27:13 PM ET] the
[2:27:13 PM ET] cuts
[2:27:14 PM ET] in
[2:27:15 PM ET] 2025 which at
[2:27:15 PM ET] the
[2:27:15 PM ET] time
[2:27:15 PM ET] were sort
[2:27:15 PM ET] of
[2:27:15 PM ET] viewed
[2:27:16 PM ET] as
[2:27:16 PM ET] risk management.
[2:27:17 PM ET] and that takes back the cuts in twenty twenty five which at the time were sort of viewed as risk management cuts
[2:27:17 PM ET] cuts because
[2:27:17 PM ET] laboratory was a lot of
[2:27:18 PM ET] market looked
[2:27:18 PM ET] like it
[2:27:19 PM ET] was
[2:27:19 PM ET] tanking.
[2:27:20 PM ET] We basically
[2:27:20 PM ET] had flatter
[2:27:20 PM ET] or
[2:27:21 PM ET] negative
[2:27:21 PM ET] prints in the
[2:27:22 PM ET] because the labor market looked like it was tanking we basically had flat or negative prints
[2:27:22 PM ET] labor
[2:27:23 PM ET] market
[2:27:23 PM ET] data.
[2:27:24 PM ET] You don't have those
[2:27:24 PM ET] risk
[2:27:24 PM ET] management
[2:27:25 PM ET] concerns.
[2:27:26 PM ET] And my sense of the risk is that the
[2:27:26 PM ET] in the in the labor market data you don't have those risk management concerns and
[2:27:26 PM ET] you have a
[2:27:27 PM ET] committee
[2:27:27 PM ET] that has a
[2:27:28 PM ET] comfort
[2:27:28 PM ET] level with
[2:27:29 PM ET] that right
[2:27:30 PM ET] now
[2:27:30 PM ET] thinking
[2:27:30 PM ET] that will
[2:27:30 PM ET] be the
[2:27:30 PM ET] my sense is that you have a committee that has a comfort level
[2:27:31 PM ET] destination.
[2:27:32 PM ET] Is the extra data that the
[2:27:33 PM ET] Fed's
[2:27:33 PM ET] waiting
[2:27:33 PM ET] for
[2:27:34 PM ET] with that right now thinking that will be the destination is the extra data that the fed's waiting
[2:27:34 PM ET] tech
[2:27:34 PM ET] for tech earnings
[2:27:35 PM ET] earnings?
[2:27:36 PM ET] Wow.
[2:27:36 PM ET] Again, you'll probably
[2:27:37 PM ET] have
[2:27:37 PM ET] 19
[2:27:38 PM ET] opinions
[2:27:38 PM ET] on the
[2:27:38 PM ET] results from
[2:27:39 PM ET] the
[2:27:39 PM ET] again you probably have nineteen opinions on that i
[2:27:40 PM ET] video.
[2:27:41 PM ET] I frankly think that the
[2:27:42 PM ET] details of the video are
[2:27:42 PM ET] for me, if I were to be able to do that, I was
[2:27:43 PM ET] were still there, the
[2:27:44 PM ET] details of the
[2:27:44 PM ET] GDP
[2:27:44 PM ET] i frankly think that the details of the for me if i were still there the details of the gdp
[2:27:45 PM ET] reports, I think it's
[2:27:46 PM ET] is tomorrow, are going to be
[2:27:47 PM ET] report which i think is tomorrow are gonna be quite
[2:27:48 PM ET] quite
[2:27:48 PM ET] important.
[2:27:49 PM ET] In fact, one could
[2:27:50 PM ET] ask, why not just do
[2:27:51 PM ET] the
[2:27:51 PM ET] Fed meetings
[2:27:52 PM ET] after
[2:27:52 PM ET] the GDP
[2:27:52 PM ET] important in fact one could one could ask why not just do the fed meetings
[2:27:53 PM ET] reports
[2:27:54 PM ET] quarterly because
[2:27:54 PM ET] then you're not having
[2:27:55 PM ET] to reverse
[2:27:56 PM ET] engineer.
[2:27:56 PM ET] after the gdp reports quarterly because then you're not having to to reverse engineer because
[2:27:57 PM ET] because that could
[2:27:57 PM ET] change some minds on
[2:27:58 PM ET] nominal
[2:27:59 PM ET] GDP, on productivity.
[2:28:00 PM ET] on the
[2:28:00 PM ET] that could change some minds on nominal gdp yeah on productivity
[2:28:01 PM ET] PCE price
[2:28:02 PM ET] index on the GDP
[2:28:03 PM ET] deflator.
[2:28:05 PM ET] Yeah, we opened the show with that.
[2:28:05 PM ET] Stephen Stanley with some buoyant
[2:28:05 PM ET] on the pce price index on the gdp deflator you know we opened the show that
[2:28:06 PM ET] numbers for
[2:28:07 PM ET] tomorrow. We've seen TK
[2:28:08 PM ET] report
[2:28:08 PM ET] stephen stanley with some buoyant numbers for tomorrow
[2:28:09 PM ET] suggesting that next
[2:28:10 PM ET] week
[2:28:10 PM ET] after the
[2:28:11 PM ET] midterms
[2:28:11 PM ET] seen tk report after report suggesting that next week after the midterms
[2:28:11 PM ET] we're
[2:28:11 PM ET] talking
[2:28:12 PM ET] about
[2:28:12 PM ET] the
[2:28:12 PM ET] resumption of
[2:28:13 PM ET] hostilities in
[2:28:13 PM ET] and
[2:28:13 PM ET] the Middle
[2:28:14 PM ET] we're talking about the resumption of hostilities in the middle east
[2:28:14 PM ET] East. It's got
[2:28:14 PM ET] to be
[2:28:14 PM ET] a
[2:28:15 PM ET] factor
[2:28:15 PM ET] to this
[2:28:16 PM ET] conversation.
[2:28:16 PM ET] We've talked
[2:28:17 PM ET] about
[2:28:17 PM ET] the
[2:28:17 PM ET] market not
[2:28:17 PM ET] changing
[2:28:18 PM ET] much
[2:28:18 PM ET] between
[2:28:18 PM ET] the
[2:28:18 PM ET] last
[2:28:19 PM ET] meeting and
[2:28:19 PM ET] it's gotta be a factor to this conversation we've talked about the market not changing much
[2:28:19 PM ET] this
[2:28:20 PM ET] one.
[2:28:20 PM ET] Crude's an
[2:28:21 PM ET] and
[2:28:21 PM ET] exemption.
[2:28:21 PM ET] You've seen
[2:28:22 PM ET] Brent
[2:28:22 PM ET] back
[2:28:22 PM ET] up
[2:28:22 PM ET] once
[2:28:23 PM ET] between the last meeting and this one crude an exemption you've seen brent back up once again
[2:28:23 PM ET] again. You've
[2:28:24 PM ET] seen
[2:28:24 PM ET] very
[2:28:24 PM ET] little
[2:28:24 PM ET] relief
[2:28:25 PM ET] you've seen very little relief in
[2:28:25 PM ET] in crude
[2:28:26 PM ET] product diesels.
[2:28:27 PM ET] is a
[2:28:27 PM ET] big
[2:28:27 PM ET] focus for the
[2:28:28 PM ET] administration
[2:28:28 PM ET] I imagine it
[2:28:29 PM ET] is for
[2:28:29 PM ET] these
[2:28:29 PM ET] officials
[2:28:30 PM ET] in crude product diesel is a big focus for the administration i imagine it is for these officials too
[2:28:30 PM ET] too.
[2:28:31 PM ET] Tolston
[2:28:31 PM ET] Slocker
[2:28:31 PM ET] said
[2:28:31 PM ET] a
[2:28:31 PM ET] it
[2:28:31 PM ET] repeatedly
[2:28:32 PM ET] that
[2:28:32 PM ET] today's diesel
[2:28:33 PM ET] prices
[2:28:33 PM ET] are
[2:28:34 PM ET] tomorrow's
[2:28:34 PM ET] inflation
[2:28:35 PM ET] said it repeatedly that today's diesel prices are tomorrow's
[2:28:36 PM ET] prices, because if you need
[2:28:36 PM ET] to
[2:28:36 PM ET] move
[2:28:37 PM ET] stuff in this
[2:28:38 PM ET] country, it's got more
[2:28:39 PM ET] expensive.
[2:28:39 PM ET] inflation prices because if you need to move stuff in this country
[2:28:39 PM ET] you're starting to see
[2:28:40 PM ET] that broadening
[2:28:40 PM ET] out the
[2:28:40 PM ET] second
[2:28:41 PM ET] round
[2:28:42 PM ET] effects, and clearly that's got to
[2:28:42 PM ET] be
[2:28:42 PM ET] a
[2:28:43 PM ET] got more expensive you're starting to see that broadening out the second round effect
[2:28:43 PM ET] concern and
[2:28:44 PM ET] ultimately, I
[2:28:44 PM ET] would
[2:28:44 PM ET] be
[2:28:45 PM ET] curious
[2:28:45 PM ET] about
[2:28:46 PM ET] that kind
[2:28:46 PM ET] and clearly that's gotta be a concern and ultimately i would be curious about that kind
[2:28:47 PM ET] of
[2:28:47 PM ET] question to
[2:28:48 PM ET] the
[2:28:48 PM ET] Fed
[2:28:49 PM ET] Chair. How do you consider the fact
[2:28:50 PM ET] that
[2:28:50 PM ET] of question to the fed chair how do you consider the fact that forward
[2:28:51 PM ET] forward
[2:28:51 PM ET] crude prices
[2:28:52 PM ET] are
[2:28:52 PM ET] now being priced
[2:28:53 PM ET] a
[2:28:53 PM ET] significantly higher
[2:28:53 PM ET] into
[2:28:54 PM ET] 2027 and
[2:28:55 PM ET] crude prices are now being priced significantly higher into twenty twenty seven and twenty twenty eight
[2:28:56 PM ET] 2028. This
[2:28:56 PM ET] has got to be part
[2:28:56 PM ET] of
[2:28:56 PM ET] their
[2:28:57 PM ET] calculus.
[2:28:58 PM ET] Stephen, I'm going to give you a final
[2:28:58 PM ET] if you
[2:28:59 PM ET] have
[2:28:59 PM ET] a
[2:28:59 PM ET] this has got to be part of their calculus steph i wanna give you a final word if you have a question
[2:28:59 PM ET] question
[2:29:00 PM ET] for the
[2:29:00 PM ET] for the chairman
[2:29:01 PM ET] chairman, in
[2:29:01 PM ET] this news conference, what would you
[2:29:02 PM ET] it
[2:29:02 PM ET] this news conference what would it be
[2:29:03 PM ET] be?
[2:29:04 PM ET] Why are you not hiking
[2:29:05 PM ET] today? What's the
[2:29:05 PM ET] reason if you're
[2:29:06 PM ET] your growth
[2:29:07 PM ET] is strong, we're talking
[2:29:07 PM ET] why are you not hiking today what's the reason if you're
[2:29:07 PM ET] about
[2:29:07 PM ET] a
[2:29:08 PM ET] above trend
[2:29:10 PM ET] growth activity.
[2:29:11 PM ET] PCE was
[2:29:11 PM ET] growth is is strong we're talking about above trend g you know growth activity
[2:29:12 PM ET] pce was hot
[2:29:12 PM ET] hot. What's the
[2:29:13 PM ET] reason? Staff could
[2:29:13 PM ET] what's the reason
[2:29:14 PM ET] good to see you. As always, Stephanie
[2:29:15 PM ET] Broth and Rich
[2:29:16 PM ET] Clarida. Rich, thank you,
[2:29:16 PM ET] steph good to see you as always stephanie roth and rich clarita rich thank you sir
[2:29:17 PM ET] sir. As always, the
[2:29:18 PM ET] former Fed Vice
[2:29:19 PM ET] Chair,
[2:29:19 PM ET] joining us around a table to break down.
[2:29:20 PM ET] this Fed
[2:29:21 PM ET] decision unchanged.
[2:29:21 PM ET] as always the former fed vice chair joining us around the table to break down
[2:29:22 PM ET] on
[2:29:22 PM ET] the
[2:29:23 PM ET] FOMC with two
[2:29:24 PM ET] dissents.
[2:29:25 PM ET] one
[2:29:25 PM ET] this fed decision unchanged on the fomc with two dissents
[2:29:25 PM ET] from
[2:29:25 PM ET] a
[2:29:25 PM ET] board
[2:29:26 PM ET] member,
[2:29:26 PM ET] Governor
[2:29:26 PM ET] Lisa
[2:29:27 PM ET] Cook, and one of the
[2:29:27 PM ET] from a
[2:29:28 PM ET] board
[2:29:28 PM ET] regional
[2:29:29 PM ET] fed
[2:29:29 PM ET] President.
[2:29:29 PM ET] one from a board member governor lisa cook
[2:29:29 PM ET] and one from a regional fed president
[2:29:30 PM ET] Cleveland
[2:29:30 PM ET] Fed president.
[2:29:30 PM ET] Beth
[2:29:31 PM ET] Hammack, and that
[2:29:32 PM ET] one was
[2:29:32 PM ET] cleveland fed president hammock and that one
[2:29:32 PM ET] largely
[2:29:33 PM ET] anticipated.
[2:29:34 PM ET] Yeah, the idea
[2:29:34 PM ET] of
[2:29:34 PM ET] Beth
[2:29:35 PM ET] Hammack's
[2:29:36 PM ET] commentary
[2:29:36 PM ET] being
[2:29:36 PM ET] incredibly
[2:29:36 PM ET] largely anticipated yeah the idea of beth hamack's commentary being incredibly hawkish
[2:29:37 PM ET] hawkish.
[2:29:38 PM ET] Dean Kernet, thank you very
[2:29:38 PM ET] much
[2:29:38 PM ET] for
[2:29:39 PM ET] this.
[2:29:39 PM ET] He
[2:29:40 PM ET] asked
[2:29:40 PM ET] Claude
[2:29:40 PM ET] Strong
[2:29:41 PM ET] versus
[2:29:41 PM ET] solid, and
[2:29:41 PM ET] dean kernet thank you very much for this he asked
[2:29:42 PM ET] said
[2:29:42 PM ET] that
[2:29:42 PM ET] there
[2:29:42 PM ET] is
[2:29:42 PM ET] a
[2:29:43 PM ET] hierarchy in
[2:29:44 PM ET] FedSpeak where
[2:29:45 PM ET] it's
[2:29:45 PM ET] strong
[2:29:45 PM ET] claude strong versus solid and said that there is a hierarchy in fed speak
[2:29:45 PM ET] is
[2:29:45 PM ET] the
[2:29:46 PM ET] first and
[2:29:46 PM ET] then
[2:29:47 PM ET] solid, then
[2:29:47 PM ET] moderate
[2:29:47 PM ET] then
[2:29:48 PM ET] modest, and
[2:29:48 PM ET] then
[2:29:49 PM ET] where strong is the first and then solid then moderate then modest
[2:29:49 PM ET] slight or
[2:29:50 PM ET] flat or
[2:29:51 PM ET] declining. So,
[2:29:51 PM ET] Claude
[2:29:52 PM ET] tells us that
[2:29:52 PM ET] strong is
[2:29:53 PM ET] an
[2:29:53 PM ET] upgrade
[2:29:53 PM ET] and then slight or flat or declining so
[2:29:53 PM ET] in terms
[2:29:54 PM ET] of
[2:29:54 PM ET] the
[2:29:54 PM ET] expectations.
[2:29:55 PM ET] of economic
[2:29:56 PM ET] This is not the
[2:29:56 PM ET] claude tells us that strong is an upgrade in terms of the
[2:29:57 PM ET] institution, this
[2:29:58 PM ET] individual, I would argue, wants
[2:29:59 PM ET] to
[2:29:59 PM ET] expectations of economic activity this is not the institution this individual abu dhabi wants to run
[2:29:59 PM ET] run.
[2:30:00 PM ET] This is not the
[2:30:00 PM ET] exercise
[2:30:00 PM ET] he
[2:30:00 PM ET] wants
[2:30:01 PM ET] us
[2:30:01 PM ET] to
[2:30:01 PM ET] this is not the exercise he wants us
[2:30:02 PM ET] have.
[2:30:02 PM ET] He wants
[2:30:02 PM ET] to go
[2:30:02 PM ET] into
[2:30:03 PM ET] a
[2:30:03 PM ET] new
[2:30:04 PM ET] to have he wants to go into a new era
[2:30:04 PM ET] era with
[2:30:04 PM ET] less
[2:30:05 PM ET] guidance, without as
[2:30:06 PM ET] us pouring over every single
[2:30:07 PM ET] word in a statement like
[2:30:08 PM ET] we
[2:30:08 PM ET] are right
[2:30:09 PM ET] now. The problem with
[2:30:09 PM ET] with less guidance without us pouring over every single word in a statement like we are
[2:30:10 PM ET] this
[2:30:10 PM ET] decision to
[2:30:11 PM ET] hold is
[2:30:11 PM ET] they
[2:30:12 PM ET] have
[2:30:12 PM ET] reinforced the
[2:30:13 PM ET] guidance
[2:30:13 PM ET] we
[2:30:13 PM ET] right now the problem with this decision to hold
[2:30:13 PM ET] receive
[2:30:14 PM ET] from
[2:30:15 PM ET] Williams and Jefferson ahead
[2:30:15 PM ET] of
[2:30:16 PM ET] this
[2:30:16 PM ET] decision: that even though,
[2:30:17 PM ET] is they have reinforced the guidance we received from williams and jefferson ahead of this decision
[2:30:18 PM ET] inflation was hotter than
[2:30:19 PM ET] expected, very
[2:30:19 PM ET] few
[2:30:20 PM ET] of us expected a
[2:30:20 PM ET] move from the
[2:30:21 PM ET] this
[2:30:21 PM ET] that even though inflation was hotter than expected very few of us expected a move from this fed
[2:30:22 PM ET] Fed, not just because of the
[2:30:22 PM ET] moves
[2:30:23 PM ET] we've seen in credit
[2:30:24 PM ET] markets, Cool We've been
[2:30:25 PM ET] notable, but because of
[2:30:25 PM ET] the
[2:30:26 PM ET] guidance we've received from
[2:30:26 PM ET] just because of the moves we've seen in credit markets call we've been notable
[2:30:27 PM ET] two key Fed
[2:30:28 PM ET] officials, when
[2:30:29 PM ET] he said, We're not in the
[2:30:30 PM ET] business
[2:30:30 PM ET] anymore of
[2:30:30 PM ET] but because of the guidance we received from two key fed officials
[2:30:31 PM ET] providing that
[2:30:32 PM ET] guidance when
[2:30:32 PM ET] he sat on that stage
[2:30:33 PM ET] and
[2:30:33 PM ET] you were there looking at
[2:30:33 PM ET] when he said we're not in the business anymore of providing that guidance
[2:30:34 PM ET] him in Bangkok,
[2:30:35 PM ET] Thailand. Who's
[2:30:35 PM ET] when he sat on that stage and you were there looking at him in bangkok thailand who's we
[2:30:36 PM ET] we? Because everyone
[2:30:36 PM ET] else on
[2:30:37 PM ET] that
[2:30:37 PM ET] committee right
[2:30:37 PM ET] now says that we're going to be able to
[2:30:37 PM ET] in
[2:30:38 PM ET] the
[2:30:38 PM ET] because everyone else on that committee right now seems to be in the business
[2:30:38 PM ET] business
[2:30:39 PM ET] of
[2:30:39 PM ET] providing
[2:30:39 PM ET] their
[2:30:39 PM ET] that
[2:30:40 PM ET] guidance.
[2:30:40 PM ET] I know that everyone jokes
[2:30:41 PM ET] about
[2:30:41 PM ET] the
[2:30:41 PM ET] task
[2:30:42 PM ET] forces, but I think that's the only thing that
[2:30:42 PM ET] I
[2:30:42 PM ET] actually want to be able to do
[2:30:43 PM ET] hear
[2:30:43 PM ET] what the community
[2:30:43 PM ET] of providing that guidance i know that everyone jokes about the task forces
[2:30:44 PM ET] communication
[2:30:44 PM ET] task
[2:30:44 PM ET] force
[2:30:45 PM ET] has to
[2:30:45 PM ET] say.
[2:30:46 PM ET] Here is your chairman of the
[2:30:46 PM ET] Federal
[2:30:47 PM ET] Reserve, Kevin
[2:30:47 PM ET] but i actually wanna hear what the communication task force has to
[2:30:47 PM ET] Warsh out
[2:30:47 PM ET] the
[2:30:48 PM ET] podium. Follow him, get
[2:30:48 PM ET] a
[2:30:49 PM ET] decision
[2:30:49 PM ET] to
[2:30:49 PM ET] keep rates unchanged.
[2:30:50 PM ET] here is your chairman of the federal reserve kevin walsh at the podium following a decision to keep rates unchanged
[2:30:50 PM ET] with two
[2:30:51 PM ET] de
[2:30:51 PM ET] dissents.
[2:30:51 PM ET] with two dissents
[2:30:52 PM ET] This
[2:30:53 PM ET] morning, the
[2:30:53 PM ET] FOMC was a very important part of the
[2:30:54 PM ET] was
[2:30:54 PM ET] decided
[2:30:54 PM ET] to make a lot of
[2:30:55 PM ET] maintain
[2:30:55 PM ET] the
[2:30:55 PM ET] target
[2:30:56 PM ET] rate for
[2:30:56 PM ET] this morning the fomc decided to maintain the target rate
[2:30:56 PM ET] the
[2:30:57 PM ET] federal
[2:30:57 PM ET] funds
[2:30:57 PM ET] rate at
[2:30:58 PM ET] three in the
[2:30:58 PM ET] and
[2:30:58 PM ET] three
[2:30:58 PM ET] quarters
[2:30:59 PM ET] to
[2:30:59 PM ET] four
[2:30:59 PM ET] for the federal funds rate at three and three quarters to four percent
[2:31:00 PM ET] 4 percent.
[2:31:01 PM ET] In support
[2:31:01 PM ET] of
[2:31:01 PM ET] the federal
[2:31:02 PM ET] Reserve's
[2:31:02 PM ET] dual
[2:31:02 PM ET] in support of the federal reserve's dual mandate
[2:31:03 PM ET] mandate.
[2:31:04 PM ET] economic
[2:31:05 PM ET] economic activity
[2:31:05 PM ET] activity
[2:31:06 PM ET] is
[2:31:06 PM ET] expanding at a
[2:31:07 PM ET] strong
[2:31:08 PM ET] pace.
[2:31:09 PM ET] While uncertainty
[2:31:10 PM ET] remains, owing
[2:31:10 PM ET] is expanding at a strong pace while uncertainty remains
[2:31:11 PM ET] in part to the city of the
[2:31:11 PM ET] geopolitical
[2:31:13 PM ET] developments,
[2:31:14 PM ET] domestic
[2:31:14 PM ET] spending has been
[2:31:15 PM ET] owing in part to geopolitical developments domestic spending has been resilient
[2:31:16 PM ET] resilient.
[2:31:16 PM ET] Productivity.
[2:31:17 PM ET] growth
[2:31:17 PM ET] is
[2:31:19 PM ET] strong in capital
[2:31:20 PM ET] investment
[2:31:20 PM ET] productivity growth is strong and capital investment robust
[2:31:21 PM ET] robust.
[2:31:22 PM ET] Job
[2:31:23 PM ET] gains
[2:31:23 PM ET] have kept pace with the
[2:31:25 PM ET] workforce and the unemployment
[2:31:26 PM ET] job gains have kept pace with the workforce
[2:31:26 PM ET] rate has changed
[2:31:27 PM ET] and the unemployment rate has changed little
[2:31:27 PM ET] little.
[2:31:28 PM ET] but
[2:31:28 PM ET] but
[2:31:29 PM ET] inflation
[2:31:30 PM ET] remains
[2:31:31 PM ET] elevated. The committee
[2:31:32 PM ET] believes that the
[2:31:33 PM ET] accumulation of
[2:31:33 PM ET] inflation remains elevated the committee believes that the accumulation
[2:31:33 PM ET] more information is the most
[2:31:34 PM ET] of more information
[2:31:35 PM ET] will help it
[2:31:36 PM ET] determine the
[2:31:37 PM ET] policy
[2:31:38 PM ET] stance
[2:31:39 PM ET] appropriate to ensure a
[2:31:39 PM ET] will help it determine the policy stance appropriate
[2:31:40 PM ET] timely
[2:31:41 PM ET] return of
[2:31:42 PM ET] inflation to the 2 percent
[2:31:43 PM ET] goal.
[2:31:43 PM ET] to ensure a timely return of inflation to the two percent goal
[2:31:44 PM ET] the committee will
[2:31:45 PM ET] deliver price
[2:31:46 PM ET] stability.
[2:31:47 PM ET] At
[2:31:47 PM ET] each policy
[2:31:47 PM ET] the committee will deliver price stability
[2:31:48 PM ET] meeting,
[2:31:48 PM ET] my
[2:31:49 PM ET] colleagues
[2:31:49 PM ET] and
[2:31:49 PM ET] I assess the
[2:31:51 PM ET] economy.
[2:31:51 PM ET] at each policy meeting my colleagues and i assess the economy
[2:31:51 PM ET] by looking at
[2:31:51 PM ET] the
[2:31:52 PM ET] out
[2:31:52 PM ET] by looking out the window
[2:31:52 PM ET] window.
[2:31:53 PM ET] It's what we
[2:31:53 PM ET] call
[2:31:54 PM ET] interrogating
[2:31:55 PM ET] reality.
[2:31:56 PM ET] To gauge what's really going
[2:31:57 PM ET] it's what we call interrogating reality
[2:31:58 PM ET] on.
[2:31:58 PM ET] it is
[2:31:58 PM ET] not a
[2:31:59 PM ET] task
[2:31:59 PM ET] that
[2:31:59 PM ET] has grown
[2:32:00 PM ET] to gauge what's really going on it is not a task that has grown easier
[2:32:00 PM ET] easier.
[2:32:01 PM ET] So, what
[2:32:02 PM ET] exactly
[2:32:02 PM ET] do we
[2:32:03 PM ET] so what exactly do we observe
[2:32:04 PM ET] observe?
[2:32:05 PM ET] Economic
[2:32:05 PM ET] growth
[2:32:06 PM ET] has
[2:32:07 PM ET] strengthened.
[2:32:08 PM ET] The
[2:32:08 PM ET] economic growth has strengthened
[2:32:09 PM ET] GDP
[2:32:09 PM ET] increase
[2:32:10 PM ET] in
[2:32:10 PM ET] the first
[2:32:10 PM ET] half of the
[2:32:10 PM ET] this
[2:32:11 PM ET] the gdp increase in the first half of this year
[2:32:12 PM ET] year
[2:32:12 PM ET] was
[2:32:12 PM ET] revised
[2:32:14 PM ET] was revised up to two point four percent
[2:32:14 PM ET] up to 2.4%. And the third quarter appears to have brought an even more rapid
[2:32:21 PM ET] and the third quarter appears to have brought an even more rapid advance
[2:32:21 PM ET] led by healthy consumer spending likely running above three percent growth
[2:32:21 PM ET] advance, led by healthy consumer spending, likely running above 3% growth.
[2:32:27 PM ET] and business investment likely rising at about a double-digit
[2:32:27 PM ET] and business investmently
[2:32:33 PM ET] investment likely rising at about a double digit pace
[2:32:33 PM ET] pace. Capital expenditures are at a historically high share of GDP.
[2:32:33 PM ET] capital expenditures
[2:32:33 PM ET] are at a historically high share of gdp
[2:32:39 PM ET] high-tech investment is leading the acceleration
[2:32:39 PM ET] High-tech investment is leading the acceleration. But there's also been a broadening in other
[2:32:44 PM ET] but there's also been a broadening in other categories
[2:32:44 PM ET] categories, and these trends bear watching. What about the jobless rate? The jobless rate is
[2:32:44 PM ET] and these trends bear watching
[2:32:51 PM ET] lower than a year ago, and payroll growth is noticeably above last year's
[2:32:51 PM ET] what about the jobless rate the jobless rate is lower than a year ago
[2:32:51 PM ET] and payroll growth is noticeably above last year's pace
[2:32:57 PM ET] pace. The four-week moving average of unemployment insurance claims continues to run at the
[2:32:57 PM ET] the four week moving average of unemployment insurance claims
[2:33:02 PM ET] lowest level in generations. So, on the employment side of the Fed's dual
[2:33:02 PM ET] continues to run at the lowest level
[2:33:02 PM ET] in generations
[2:33:02 PM ET] so on the employment side of the fed's dual mandate
[2:33:09 PM ET] conditions are quite positive
[2:33:09 PM ET] mandate, conditions are quite positive. And yet, Americans, of course, are still dealing with
[2:33:15 PM ET] and yet americans of course are still dealing with inflation
[2:33:15 PM ET] inflation that has been running above the committee's objective for close to six
[2:33:15 PM ET] that has been running above the committee's objective for close to six
[2:33:22 PM ET] years. Over the last couple of days, focused mainly on the price stability side of our
[2:33:22 PM ET] years over the last couple of days
[2:33:27 PM ET] remit. Since our policy action in September, we have
[2:33:27 PM ET] focused mainly on the price stability side of our remit
[2:33:32 PM ET] started to see some changes in financial and credit conditions.
[2:33:32 PM ET] since our policy action in september we have started to see
[2:33:32 PM ET] some changes in financial and credit conditions
[2:33:37 PM ET] They have tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect.
[2:33:37 PM ET] they have tightened for some businesses and households much as we would expect
[2:33:42 PM ET] Market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital
[2:33:42 PM ET] market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocation
[2:33:47 PM ET] allocations. And while overall financial conditions are tighter, I'm
[2:33:47 PM ET] while overall financial conditions are tighter
[2:33:52 PM ET] unwilling and unable to call them tight. But broadly, these
[2:33:52 PM ET] i'm unwilling and unable to call them tight
[2:33:52 PM ET] but broadly
[2:33:57 PM ET] developments go in the direction of achieving a longer, more durable
[2:33:57 PM ET] these developments go in the direction
[2:34:02 PM ET] period of economic growth and price stability. Over the last couple of
[2:34:02 PM ET] of achieving a longer more durable period
[2:34:02 PM ET] of economic growth and price stability
[2:34:07 PM ET] days, the committee had a good discussion of the changes in the economic and financial
[2:34:07 PM ET] over the last couple of days the committee had a good discussion
[2:34:12 PM ET] landscape that marked this intermediate period. We discussed geopolitical
[2:34:12 PM ET] of the changes in the economic and financial landscape
[2:34:12 PM ET] that marked this intermeeting period
[2:34:17 PM ET] developments and fast-moving changes in technology. We
[2:34:17 PM ET] we discussed geopolitical developments
[2:34:17 PM ET] and fast moving changes in technology
[2:34:22 PM ET] observed, but were not surprised, that financial markets showed bouts of volatility.
[2:34:22 PM ET] we observed but were not surprised
[2:34:27 PM ET] and shifting correlations. So, as we widen the
[2:34:27 PM ET] that financial markets showed bouts of volatility
[2:34:32 PM ET] frame to survey the broad economic and financial picture, real activity
[2:34:32 PM ET] and shifting correlations
[2:34:32 PM ET] so as we widen the frame to survey the broad economic and financial picture
[2:34:37 PM ET] is clearly pointing in the right direction. That's good news. But inflation is too
[2:34:37 PM ET] real activity is clearly pointing in the right direction
[2:34:42 PM ET] high. Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent
[2:34:42 PM ET] that's good news but inflation is too high
[2:34:47 PM ET] weeks, and our job is to ensure that relative price changes in some
[2:34:47 PM ET] energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks
[2:34:47 PM ET] and our job is to ensure that relative price changes
[2:34:52 PM ET] sectors do not broaden out across the economy and that
[2:34:52 PM ET] in some sectors do not broaden out
[2:34:52 PM ET] across the economy
[2:34:57 PM ET] inflation expectations remain as they are anchored. While
[2:34:57 PM ET] that inflation expectations remain as they are anchored
[2:35:02 PM ET] these uncertainties are real, there's no lack of clarity in our purpose at the
[2:35:02 PM ET] while these uncertainties are real there's no lack of clarity
[2:35:07 PM ET] Fed. Since becoming chairman just five months ago, I've been honored to
[2:35:07 PM ET] in our purpose at the fed so
[2:35:07 PM ET] becoming chairman just five months ago
[2:35:12 PM ET] work with FOMC policymakers who are unambiguous in their commitment to
[2:35:12 PM ET] i've been honored to work with fomc policymakers
[2:35:12 PM ET] who are unambiguous in their commitment
[2:35:17 PM ET] stable prices. We've made clear our readiness to act as circumstances
[2:35:17 PM ET] to stable prices we've made clear our readiness to act as circumstances
[2:35:22 PM ET] require, and we have shown our willingness to act.
[2:35:22 PM ET] require and we have shown our willingness to act
[2:35:27 PM ET] The information we receive over the coming period will help us
[2:35:27 PM ET] the information we receive over the coming period
[2:35:32 PM ET] determine where we want policy to be. And at every turn, good or
[2:35:32 PM ET] will help us determine where we want policy to be
[2:35:32 PM ET] and at every turn
[2:35:37 PM ET] bad, our job is to get monetary policy right. And that's exactly what we're
[2:35:37 PM ET] good or bad our job is to get monetary policy right
[2:35:37 PM ET] and that's exactly what we're doing
[2:35:42 PM ET] doing. Now, with this objective in mind, we've decided on a change in our FOMC
[2:35:42 PM ET] now with this objective in mind we've decided on a change in our fomc
[2:35:47 PM ET] schedule starting next fall. We believe eight meetings per year is the right
[2:35:47 PM ET] schedule starting next fall
[2:35:47 PM ET] we believe eight meetings per year
[2:35:52 PM ET] number for the FOMC. But in 2027, one meeting will
[2:35:52 PM ET] is the right number for the fomc but in twenty twenty seven
[2:35:57 PM ET] focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither
[2:35:57 PM ET] one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy
[2:36:02 PM ET] a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement
[2:36:02 PM ET] with neither a vote on the federal funds rate
[2:36:02 PM ET] nor a policy statement
[2:36:02 PM ET] anticipated
[2:36:07 PM ET] anticipated. The rest will be regular FOMC policy setting meetings.
[2:36:07 PM ET] the rest will be regular fomc policy setting meetings
[2:36:12 PM ET] And I expect that in 2028 we'll have two meetings dedicated to discussions of
[2:36:12 PM ET] and i expect that in twenty twenty eight
[2:36:17 PM ET] strategy and six for setting policy. Now, what's the reasoning behind this
[2:36:17 PM ET] we'll have two meetings dedicated to discussions of strategy
[2:36:17 PM ET] and six for setting policy
[2:36:22 PM ET] change? To me, it's quite straightforward. Getting policy right involves
[2:36:22 PM ET] now what's the reasoning behind this change
[2:36:27 PM ET] assessing near-term developments at timely, regular, and
[2:36:27 PM ET] to me it's quite straightforward getting policy right involves a
[2:36:27 PM ET] assessing near term developments
[2:36:27 PM ET] at timely
[2:36:32 PM ET] information-rich intervals. But it's equally important. We reserve
[2:36:32 PM ET] regular and information rich intervals
[2:36:37 PM ET] time and space as an intellectually diverse group for strategic
[2:36:37 PM ET] but it's equally important we reserve time and space
[2:36:37 PM ET] as an intellectually diverse group
[2:36:42 PM ET] deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions, looking out over
[2:36:42 PM ET] for strategic deliberations for thinking anew about big
[2:36:47 PM ET] longer time horizons, focusing, as I say, on the left side of the decimal
[2:36:47 PM ET] questions looking out over longer time horizons
[2:36:52 PM ET] point. I believe the setting of the meeting schedule and agenda is more than
[2:36:52 PM ET] focusing as i say on the left side of the decimal point
[2:36:52 PM ET] i believe the setting of the meeting schedule and agenda
[2:36:57 PM ET] some administrative detail. It's an institutional choice
[2:36:57 PM ET] is more than some administrative
[2:36:57 PM ET] detail
[2:36:57 PM ET] it's an institutional choice
[2:37:02 PM ET] affecting the nature and the quality of our deliberations and ultimately the wisdom of our
[2:37:02 PM ET] affecting the nature and the quality of our deliberations
[2:37:07 PM ET] decisions. It's yet another change to get the conduct of monetary
[2:37:07 PM ET] ultimately the wisdom of our decisions
[2:37:12 PM ET] policy on the right track. I appreciate your attention this afternoon.
[2:37:12 PM ET] it's yet another change to get the conduct of monetary policy
[2:37:17 PM ET] Now, my time is yours, and I welcome your questions.
[2:37:17 PM ET] on the right track i appreciate your attention this afternoon
[2:37:17 PM ET] now my time is yours and i welcome your questions
[2:37:22 PM ET] Colby Smith. Thank you. Colby Smith of the New York Times. There's been essentially no
[2:37:22 PM ET] thank you colby smith with the new york times
[2:37:27 PM ET] progress toward the 2 percent inflation target. The labor market remains stable, as you
[2:37:27 PM ET] there's been essentially no progress
[2:37:32 PM ET] suggested in your opening statement, and most of your colleagues seem to be on board with raising
[2:37:32 PM ET] toward the two percent inflation target the labor market remains stable as you
[2:37:32 PM ET] suggested in your opening statement and most of your colleagues seem
[2:37:37 PM ET] rates in December. So, why not just raise rates today? So, it's a
[2:37:37 PM ET] to be on board with raising rates in december so why not just raise rates today
[2:37:42 PM ET] good question. I will say, I've read your stories the last day or two, so I must admit, I sort of saw
[2:37:42 PM ET] so it's a good question i will say
[2:37:47 PM ET] that question coming. What I said in my prepared
[2:37:47 PM ET] read your stories the last day or two so i must admit i sort of saw saw that question coming
[2:37:52 PM ET] statement was information coming in the coming period will help us tell
[2:37:52 PM ET] what i said in my prepared statement
[2:37:57 PM ET] where we want to be, but I suspect you want a little more than that. So let me give it a
[2:37:57 PM ET] was information coming in the coming period will help us tell us where we wanna be
[2:38:02 PM ET] shot. Ensuring price stability, Colby, quashing
[2:38:02 PM ET] but i suspect you want a little more than that so let me let me give it a shot
[2:38:07 PM ET] inflation, is not about some fixed individual date on a
[2:38:07 PM ET] ensuring price stability colby quashing inflation
[2:38:12 PM ET] calendar. Same way, it's not about some isolated data
[2:38:12 PM ET] is not about some fixed individual date on a calendar
[2:38:17 PM ET] point. If it were about those two things, this job would be easier, and we wouldn't be
[2:38:17 PM ET] same way it's not about some isolated data point
[2:38:17 PM ET] if it were about those two things this job would be easier
[2:38:22 PM ET] suffering from nearly six years of inflation above target. So, what's this
[2:38:22 PM ET] we wouldn't be suffering from nearly six years of inflation above target
[2:38:22 PM ET] so what's this about
[2:38:27 PM ET] about? It's about ensuring we have clear objectives and it's about a monetary
[2:38:27 PM ET] it's about ensuring we have clear objectives
[2:38:32 PM ET] policy strategy, which might sound to your ear and others like a change from
[2:38:32 PM ET] and it's about a monetary policy strategy
[2:38:32 PM ET] which might sound eurier in others
[2:38:37 PM ET] the last several years. So let me step back. In the five months or
[2:38:37 PM ET] like a change from the last several years so let me step back
[2:38:42 PM ET] so that I've been around, we've put in place what I describe as new
[2:38:42 PM ET] in the five months or so that i've been around
[2:38:47 PM ET] monetary medicine. Well, what's been in that package of medicine?
[2:38:47 PM ET] we've put in place what i describe as new monetary medicine
[2:38:47 PM ET] what's been in that
[2:38:47 PM ET] package of medicine
[2:38:52 PM ET] First thing we did when we showed up with my colleagues is we doubled down on the
[2:38:52 PM ET] first thing we did when we showed up with my colleagues
[2:38:57 PM ET] 2% inflation target. We said, we own it, we're taking
[2:38:57 PM ET] is we doubled down on the two percent inflation target
[2:39:02 PM ET] responsibility for it. And if you think that we're tolerating some inflation targets somewhere in
[2:39:02 PM ET] we said we own it we're taking responsibility for it
[2:39:07 PM ET] the twos, let us disabuse you of it. That was the first part of this new monetary
[2:39:07 PM ET] if you think that we're tolerating some inflation target somewhere in the twos
[2:39:12 PM ET] medicine. Second part is we took responsibility. No anguish of central banking here, no
[2:39:12 PM ET] let us disabuse you of it that was the first part of this new monetary medicine
[2:39:12 PM ET] second part is we took responsibility
[2:39:17 PM ET] blaming others. It's a third thing that we've done. We laid out for you
[2:39:17 PM ET] no anguish of central banking here no blaming others
[2:39:17 PM ET] it's a third thing that we've done
[2:39:22 PM ET] and the world our framework. I did it in Jackson Hole, was part of the discussion the last
[2:39:22 PM ET] we laid out for you and the world our framework
[2:39:27 PM ET] couple of days. This is the framework that many of my colleagues hew to as well. This is how we think
[2:39:27 PM ET] i did it in jackson hole it was part of the discussion last
[2:39:27 PM ET] couple days it's the framework that many of my colleagues hue to as well
[2:39:32 PM ET] about how monetary policy should work. These are the transmission mechanisms, and this is how
[2:39:32 PM ET] this is how we think about
[2:39:37 PM ET] we're going to deliver. Then, what do we do? We interrogate reality, we do that
[2:39:37 PM ET] how monetary policy should work these are the transmission mechanisms
[2:39:37 PM ET] and this is how we're gonna deliver
[2:39:37 PM ET] then what do we do we interrogate reality
[2:39:42 PM ET] periodically. That's a very useful thing to do. But we don't just talk, we
[2:39:42 PM ET] we do that periodically that's a very useful thing to do
[2:39:42 PM ET] but we don't just talk we act
[2:39:47 PM ET] act. And so in September, when we last met, we acted. We removed a
[2:39:47 PM ET] and so in september when we last met
[2:39:52 PM ET] dose of accommodation. So, what are the signposts about how this new strategy is
[2:39:52 PM ET] we acted we removed a dose of accommodation
[2:39:57 PM ET] going? Inflation compensation, as measured by swaps, prices, many other
[2:39:57 PM ET] so what are the signposts about how this new strategy is going
[2:40:02 PM ET] measures. Inflation compensation is going in the right way, inflation expectations.
[2:40:02 PM ET] inflation compensation as measured by swaps
[2:40:02 PM ET] prices many other measures inflation compensation is going in the right way
[2:40:07 PM ET] The world is quite unsettled. If you'd
[2:40:07 PM ET] inflation expectations
[2:40:12 PM ET] say, absent the Fed, what would have happened to expectations? They might have gone the wrong way. They've gone the right
[2:40:12 PM ET] the world is quite unsettled
[2:40:12 PM ET] if you'd say
[2:40:17 PM ET] way, too. So I feel good about those signposts. The period
[2:40:17 PM ET] absent the fed what would have happened to expectations they might have gone the wrong way
[2:40:17 PM ET] they've gone the right way too so i feel good about those signposts
[2:40:22 PM ET] right in front of us is information rich. There is a lot that's
[2:40:22 PM ET] the period right in front of us is information rich
[2:40:27 PM ET] happening in the world. My colleagues and I are keen to take notice of it.
[2:40:27 PM ET] there is a lot that's happening in the world
[2:40:32 PM ET] So, in this coming period, what do I think we're going to be able to do? We're going to be able
[2:40:32 PM ET] my colleagues and i are keen to take notice of it so in this coming period
[2:40:32 PM ET] what do i think we're going to be able to do
[2:40:37 PM ET] to figure out what's the appropriate protocol as part of this package that we
[2:40:37 PM ET] we're gonna be able to figure out what's the appropriate protocol
[2:40:42 PM ET] started to deliver five months ago to deliver price stability. I'm encouraged
[2:40:42 PM ET] part of this package that we started to deliver five months ago
[2:40:42 PM ET] to deliver price stability
[2:40:47 PM ET] by the progress we've made in a short period of time. But if the crux of your question
[2:40:47 PM ET] i'm encouraged by the progress we've made in a short period of time but if the
[2:40:52 PM ET] is you haven't delivered yet, you haven't achieved price stability, you're right about that, but we're working on
[2:40:52 PM ET] crux of your question is you haven't delivered yet you haven't achieved price stability
[2:40:57 PM ET] it.
[2:40:57 PM ET] you're right about that but we're working on it
[2:40:57 PM ET] hey drew
[2:41:02 PM ET] Thank you, Chair Warsh. So if I could.
[2:41:02 PM ET] thank you chair warsh
[2:41:07 PM ET] the statement says that the accumulation of more information will help the committee determine the policy stance appropriate
[2:41:07 PM ET] so if i could the statement says that the accumulation of more information will help the committee
[2:41:12 PM ET] to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal. Does that
[2:41:12 PM ET] determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation
[2:41:17 PM ET] mean that the current level of the Fed funds rate might already be the right one?
[2:41:17 PM ET] to the two percent goal does that mean that the current level of the fed funds rate might
[2:41:17 PM ET] already be the right one
[2:41:26 PM ET] Timely return of inflation to the 2% goal. The committee
[2:41:26 PM ET] timely return of inflation to the two percent goal
[2:41:26 PM ET] will jobless rate. The jobless rate is lower than a year ago.
[2:41:26 PM ET] the committee will jobless rate the jobless rate is lower than a year
[2:41:26 PM ET] ago
[2:41:26 PM ET] And while overall financial conditions are tighter, I'm unwilling to do not broaden out across the economy, and that
[2:41:26 PM ET] and pay and while overall financial conditions are tighter
[2:41:26 PM ET] among willing do not broaden out
[2:41:26 PM ET] across the economy
[2:41:26 PM ET] inflation vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated decisions. It's yet another change to get the conduct of monetary
[2:41:26 PM ET] and that inflation vote on the federal funds rate
[2:41:26 PM ET] same way it's not about some isolated data point. The world, our framework. I did it in Jackson Hole, was part of the discussion the last
[2:41:26 PM ET] nor a policy statement
[2:41:26 PM ET] anticipated
[2:41:26 PM ET] decisions
[2:41:26 PM ET] it's yet another change to get the conduct of monetary
[2:41:26 PM ET] same way it's not about some isolated data
[2:41:26 PM ET] couple in the world. My colleagues and I are keen to take notice of it. So, well, we've got to determine the appropriate
[2:41:26 PM ET] point the world our framework i did it in jackson hole
[2:41:26 PM ET] part of the discussion last couple
[2:41:26 PM ET] in the world my colleagues and i are keen to take notice of it
[2:41:26 PM ET] so
[2:41:26 PM ET] well
[2:41:27 PM ET] protocol. If you were listening next to
[2:41:27 PM ET] we've gotta determine the appropriate protocol
[2:41:32 PM ET] me in that room the last couple of days, the overwhelming consensus, the
[2:41:32 PM ET] if you were listening next to me
[2:41:37 PM ET] overwhelming judgment is that what we've done in this modesty
[2:41:37 PM ET] in that room the last couple of days the overwhelming consent
[2:41:37 PM ET] the overwhelming judgment is that
[2:41:42 PM ET] what we've done in this modesty medicine
[2:41:42 PM ET] medicine, starting to work some, but there's no firm conclusions. If we had a
[2:41:47 PM ET] firm conclusion about the conduct of monetary policy, we'd announce it to much
[2:41:47 PM ET] starting to work some but there's no firm conclusions
[2:41:47 PM ET] if we had a firm conclusion about the conduct of monetary policy
[2:41:52 PM ET] fanfare today. What we decided to do was to Colby's question, take
[2:41:52 PM ET] we'd announced it to much fanfare today what we decided to do was
[2:41:57 PM ET] stock of where we are, evaluate what we're seeing out the window, ask
[2:41:57 PM ET] to call these question take stock of where we are evaluate
[2:42:02 PM ET] ourselves whether the period right in front of us is likely to provide more clarity on the appropriate
[2:42:02 PM ET] what we're seeing out the window ask ourselves
[2:42:07 PM ET] protocol. My judgment, the judgment of my overwhelming number of colleagues, is that it
[2:42:07 PM ET] whether the period right in front of us is likely to provide more clarity on the appropriate
[2:42:07 PM ET] protocol my judgment the judgment of my overwhelming number of colleagues is that it would
[2:42:12 PM ET] would.
[2:42:12 PM ET] see
[2:42:17 PM ET] Mr. Chairman, before thanks for taking our
[2:42:22 PM ET] questions. Before the meeting, several members of the board and
[2:42:22 PM ET] before the
[2:42:22 PM ET] the meeting several
[2:42:22 PM ET] members of the
[2:42:27 PM ET] the committee went out and told us that it was going to take more time, and that had a profound effect on the outlook for
[2:42:27 PM ET] board and the committee went out and told us that
[2:42:32 PM ET] for the funds rate. Were you involved in discussing that
[2:42:32 PM ET] gonna take more time and that had a profound effect on the outlook for the
[2:42:37 PM ET] message with them? And if you don't mind, I'm sorry, but a protocol question: what will be the
[2:42:37 PM ET] for the funds rate were you involved in under in in discussing that
[2:42:37 PM ET] message
[2:42:42 PM ET] disclosure, public disclosure, on the meetings where you're not going to have a statement? So, two questions, I'm
[2:42:42 PM ET] with them and if you don't mind i'm sorry but a protocol question
[2:42:42 PM ET] what will be the disclosure
[2:42:47 PM ET] sorry. Two questions. Did you not hear the one-question rule? I did, but I thought there was like a
[2:42:47 PM ET] public disclosure on the meetings where you're not gonna have a statement so
[2:42:47 PM ET] two questions i'm sorry two questions i know did not hear the one
[2:42:52 PM ET] protocol thing I could hear. I would, that was like a parliamentary procedure question you were
[2:42:52 PM ET] question rule i i i did but i thought there was like a protocol thing
[2:42:57 PM ET] asking. That didn't count. I hesitate to indulge the second question, I fear what it would
[2:42:57 PM ET] i could do i would that was like a parliamentary procedure question you were asking that didn't count
[2:43:02 PM ET] do, but let me see if I can do it and not have the slippery slope
[2:43:02 PM ET] i hesitate to indulge the fact
[2:43:02 PM ET] question i fear what it would do but let's
[2:43:07 PM ET] among us. Your first question was about my colleagues. I've got 18
[2:43:07 PM ET] let me see if i can do it and not have the slippery slope among us
[2:43:07 PM ET] your first question was about my colleagues
[2:43:12 PM ET] quite independent colleagues. If you were inside that room the last couple of days, you would come to
[2:43:12 PM ET] i've got eighteen quite independent colleagues if you were inside that room the last couple of
[2:43:17 PM ET] believe that to be true. One way to test the independence of my
[2:43:17 PM ET] days you would come to believe that to be true
[2:43:22 PM ET] colleagues is: I don't know if you've heard Steve, but I don't submit a dot, I don't plan on submitting a
[2:43:22 PM ET] one way to test the independence of my colleagues is i don't know if you've heard steve but
[2:43:22 PM ET] i don't submit a dot
[2:43:27 PM ET] dot. But the 18 of them do to suggest somehow that I
[2:43:27 PM ET] don't plan on submitting a dot but the eighteen of them do
[2:43:32 PM ET] am some kind of all-knowing person sending messages
[2:43:32 PM ET] to suggest somehow that i am some kind of
[2:43:32 PM ET] all knowing person sending messages out
[2:43:37 PM ET] out. That's not the committee of the FOMC that I know. These are
[2:43:37 PM ET] that that that that's not the committee of the fomc that i know
[2:43:42 PM ET] serious, sober, responsible people. We had a serious, sober discussion. So that's the answer to
[2:43:42 PM ET] these are serious sober responsible people we had a serious
[2:43:47 PM ET] that. On the parliamentary question, which doesn't count as a question, I'll just say this.
[2:43:47 PM ET] sober discussion so that's the answer to that on the parliamentary question which
[2:43:52 PM ET] we made a decision that at that strategy meeting in 2027, and the two
[2:43:52 PM ET] doesn't count as a question i'll just say this
[2:43:57 PM ET] strategy meetings in 28, I do not anticipate making any policy decision, putting out
[2:43:57 PM ET] we've made a decision that at that strategy meeting in twenty
[2:43:57 PM ET] seven and the two strategy meetings in twenty eight i do not anticipate making any
[2:44:02 PM ET] a policy statement. But what might we come out with? It's not obvious
[2:44:02 PM ET] policy decision putting out a policy statement but what might we come out with
[2:44:07 PM ET] yet. There's more news to come on that. The decision on the new format for the
[2:44:07 PM ET] it's not obvious yet there's more news to come on that
[2:44:12 PM ET] meetings is relatively new. It was a robust discussion over a couple
[2:44:12 PM ET] the decision on the new format for the meetings is
[2:44:17 PM ET] of meetings of how to handle that. As we get details of that, which are still now not until next
[2:44:17 PM ET] new it was a robust discussion over a
[2:44:17 PM ET] couple of meetings of how to handle that as we get details of that which are still now
[2:44:22 PM ET] fall, we'll be prepared to share them with you. Nicole.
[2:44:22 PM ET] not until next fall we'll be prepared to share them with you
[2:44:22 PM ET] nicole
[2:44:27 PM ET] Hi, Nicole. Good kind of bears. Thanks for taking my question. In September, you
[2:44:27 PM ET] hi nicole goodkind with barron's thanks for taking my question
[2:44:32 PM ET] mentioned that the Fed has a role in sustaining the economic progress happening in America right now and in the
[2:44:32 PM ET] in september you mentioned that the fed has a role in sustaining the economic progress
[2:44:37 PM ET] rising opportunities that come with it. I'm wondering if you can expand on whether you see this as a
[2:44:37 PM ET] happening in america right now and in the rising opportunities that come with it
[2:44:42 PM ET] mandate and how you intend to fulfill that mandate. So the mandate was given to us by
[2:44:42 PM ET] i'm wondering if you can expand on whether you see this as a mandate
[2:44:47 PM ET] Congress. The mandate was deliver stable prices and deliver full
[2:44:47 PM ET] and how you intend to fulfill that mandate so the mandate was given to us by congress
[2:44:52 PM ET] employment all in the context of financial stability. Now, they gave us some other homework to do
[2:44:52 PM ET] mandate was deliver stable prices and deliver full employment
[2:44:52 PM ET] on the context of financial stability now they gave
[2:44:57 PM ET] on supervision and regulation payments, but I presume you're talking about monetary
[2:44:57 PM ET] some other homework to do on supervision or regulation payments but i presume you're you're talking
[2:45:02 PM ET] policy. So, what's the best thing we can do in this environment looking
[2:45:02 PM ET] about monetary policy so what's the best
[2:45:07 PM ET] at our window to deliver on that remit? Ensure stable prices.
[2:45:07 PM ET] thing we can do in this environment looking at our window
[2:45:07 PM ET] to deliver on that remed
[2:45:12 PM ET] I mentioned, I think, at a prior press conference: if you were trying to do the most harmed, the least
[2:45:12 PM ET] ensure stable prices i mentioned i think at a prior press conference if you were trying
[2:45:17 PM ET] well-off among us, you would let the last six years of inflation.
[2:45:17 PM ET] to do the most harm the least well off among us
[2:45:17 PM ET] you would let the last six years of inflation
[2:45:22 PM ET] above the Fed's target, usually well above the Fed's target, you'd let that continue. So that's the
[2:45:22 PM ET] above the fed's target usually well above the fed's target you'd let that
[2:45:27 PM ET] most important thing we can do as we look out the window, and that's what we plan to do. You probably heard me say
[2:45:27 PM ET] continue so that's the most important thing we can do as we look out the window and that's what we plan to do
[2:45:32 PM ET] this. We will deliver price stability, no ifs, ands, or buts, and that continues to be the
[2:45:32 PM ET] you probably heard me say this we will deliver price stability
[2:45:32 PM ET] no ifs ands or buts and that continues to be the case
[2:45:37 PM ET] case. Eleanor, Eleanor and Miller would come for having
[2:45:42 PM ET] Eleanor Mueller was some before. Wanted to ask you about the working groups, when we can expect the
[2:45:42 PM ET] was you're not eleanor miller was done before
[2:45:47 PM ET] reports to come up, and if there is anything you can preview for us, whether it's on AI or
[2:45:47 PM ET] wanted to ask you about the working groups when we can expect the reports to come
[2:45:52 PM ET] data or balance sheets. Sure. These
[2:45:52 PM ET] and if there is anything you can preview for us whether it's
[2:45:52 PM ET] on ai or data or balance sheets sure
[2:45:57 PM ET] these five task forces
[2:45:57 PM ET] five task forces are hard at work. I have scarcely
[2:46:02 PM ET] seen anything that would constitute a final report, but I have done some periodic check-ins
[2:46:02 PM ET] are hard at work i have scarcely seen anything that would constitute a final
[2:46:07 PM ET] with them, and I am impressed by the rigor of the intellectual
[2:46:07 PM ET] report but i have done some periodic check ins with them
[2:46:12 PM ET] discussions, by the seriousness of the task that we've given them. Now, some of the
[2:46:12 PM ET] and i am impressed by the rigor of the intellectual
[2:46:12 PM ET] discussions by the seriousness of the task that we've given them
[2:46:17 PM ET] questions that I ask to kick off the reports, they want to answer those and answer a whole range of other
[2:46:17 PM ET] now some of the questions that i ask
[2:46:22 PM ET] questions, which might go to other task forces. But I'm impressed by what they're
[2:46:22 PM ET] to kick off the reports they wanna answer those and answer a whole range of other
[2:46:27 PM ET] doing. I gave them, like I told you, a year-end deadline.
[2:46:27 PM ET] questions might go to other task forces but i'm impressed
[2:46:27 PM ET] by what they're doing i gave them like i told you
[2:46:32 PM ET] I think some, but not all, of the groups will probably hit their deadline and turn their
[2:46:32 PM ET] a year end deadline i think some but not all of the groups
[2:46:32 PM ET] will probably
[2:46:37 PM ET] homework in on time. But that just begins the process by which we're going to be consuming, which
[2:46:37 PM ET] hit their deadline and turn their homework in on time
[2:46:42 PM ET] is intellectually serious work. That's a catalyst for us to think
[2:46:42 PM ET] that just begins the process by which we're gonna be consuming which is
[2:46:47 PM ET] anew about productivity and jobs and an inflation framework, and what's the best data to help us
[2:46:47 PM ET] intellectually serious work that's a catalyst for us to think anew
[2:46:47 PM ET] about productivity and jobs and an inflation framework
[2:46:52 PM ET] do our job? How to think about the balance sheet task force.
[2:46:52 PM ET] and what's the best data to help us do our job
[2:46:52 PM ET] how to think about the balance sheet task force
[2:46:57 PM ET] These are huge intellectual investments that I think are going to bear fruits in the
[2:46:57 PM ET] these are huge intellectual
[2:47:02 PM ET] next policy conjuncture, unlikely to find their way
[2:47:02 PM ET] investments that i think are gonna bear fruits in the next
[2:47:02 PM ET] policy conjunction
[2:47:07 PM ET] into this policy conjuncture, given the important role as consumers of these ideas that my
[2:47:07 PM ET] unlikely to find their way into this policy conjunction given the the important role as
[2:47:12 PM ET] colleagues have. But I will have one small announcement.
[2:47:12 PM ET] consumers of these ideas that my colleagues have
[2:47:17 PM ET] I previewed this when I was at an IMF meeting, much to the chagrin of some of my colleagues around
[2:47:17 PM ET] but i will have one small announcement
[2:47:17 PM ET] i previewed this when i was at an imf meeting
[2:47:22 PM ET] here, on November 16th, the Productivity and Jobs Task Force will be doing a field
[2:47:22 PM ET] much to the chagrin of some of my colleagues around here on november sixteenth
[2:47:27 PM ET] hearing, inviting a broad range of people who have strong
[2:47:27 PM ET] the productivity and jobs task force will be doing a field hearing
[2:47:27 PM ET] inviting a broad range of people who have strong views
[2:47:32 PM ET] views. What are the implications for jobs in the economy, near term, medium-term, long-term? Is
[2:47:32 PM ET] what are the implications for jobs in the economy near term medium term long term
[2:47:37 PM ET] this a productivity miracle that's going to happen, or will it happen slowly?
[2:47:37 PM ET] is this a productivity miracle that's going to happen or will it happen slowly
[2:47:42 PM ET] I know I, for one, am keenly interested in refining my own views on that
[2:47:47 PM ET] question. But that task force decided they wanted to hear from more people as part of their
[2:47:47 PM ET] i know i for one am keenly interested in refining my own views on that question
[2:47:52 PM ET] undertaking. I plan on attending. I might have a few words to say at the
[2:47:52 PM ET] but that task force decided that they wanted to hear from more
[2:47:52 PM ET] people as part of their undertaking i plan at attending i might have
[2:47:57 PM ET] outset of that conference. I expect the conference will go three, four hours. It'll be pretty wonky
[2:47:57 PM ET] a few words to say at the outset of that conference
[2:48:02 PM ET] stuff. I don't know how good the material will be for the likes of you and your colleagues, but
[2:48:02 PM ET] i expect the conference will go three four hours it'll be pretty wonky stuff i don't know
[2:48:07 PM ET] it's a purpose to do a lot of listening for me to interrogate the reality in front of
[2:48:07 PM ET] how good the material will be for the likes of you and your colleagues
[2:48:07 PM ET] but it's a purpose to do a lot of listening for me to
[2:48:12 PM ET] me. What do experts in their fields think about this? What are the
[2:48:12 PM ET] interrogate the reality in front of me what to
[2:48:17 PM ET] implications for the dual mandate that I referenced to your colleague? Is this going to make it harder or
[2:48:17 PM ET] experts in their fields think about this what are the
[2:48:17 PM ET] for the dual mandate that i referenced to your colleague
[2:48:22 PM ET] easier for us to achieve price stability over the next several years? What are the
[2:48:22 PM ET] is this going to make it harder or easier for us to
[2:48:27 PM ET] implications for jobs, medium and long-term, but near-term too? So we're going to explore
[2:48:27 PM ET] achieve price stability over the next several years what are the implications for jobs
[2:48:32 PM ET] those largely in the public realm on November 16th. I look forward to seeing you
[2:48:32 PM ET] medium and long term but near term too so we're gonna
[2:48:32 PM ET] explore those largely in the
[2:48:32 PM ET] public realm on november sixteenth i look forward to seeing you there
[2:48:37 PM ET] frozen
[2:48:37 PM ET] there. James, President. Thank you so much.
[2:48:42 PM ET] Thank you, Mr. Chairman. James Rosen with Newsmax. You spoke of interrogating reality.
[2:48:42 PM ET] thank you so much thank you mister chairman james rosen with newsmax
[2:48:42 PM ET] you spoke of interrogating reality
[2:48:47 PM ET] Since reality is a no-show here today, I'm going to satisfy myself with interrogating you. You spoke
[2:48:47 PM ET] since reality is a no show here today i'm gonna satisfy myself with interrogating you
[2:48:52 PM ET] earlier in your remarks here today about how your colleagues are serious and sober people who
[2:48:52 PM ET] you spoke earlier in your remarks here today about how your colleagues are
[2:48:57 PM ET] are committed to price stability. In an event in the Oval Office on October 7 of this
[2:48:57 PM ET] serious and sober people who are committed to price stability
[2:49:02 PM ET] year, President Trump said, and I quote, Kevin is great, but Kevin's one vote out of a
[2:49:02 PM ET] in an event in the oval office on october seven of this year president trump
[2:49:07 PM ET] board with numerous people that were put on by Obama and Biden, and a couple by me.
[2:49:07 PM ET] said and i quote kevin is great but kevin's one vote
[2:49:07 PM ET] out of a board with numerous people that were put on by obama and biden
[2:49:12 PM ET] so you have a board that would like to see the country do badly, in my opinion. Do you agree with
[2:49:12 PM ET] and a couple by me so you have a board that would like to see the country do badly in my opinion
[2:49:17 PM ET] those comments? So, James, I appreciate the question. I'm not going to be responding
[2:49:17 PM ET] do you agree with those comments so james i appreciate the
[2:49:22 PM ET] to quotes from public officials. What I can tell you is my
[2:49:22 PM ET] question i'm not gonna be responding to to
[2:49:22 PM ET] quotes from public officials
[2:49:27 PM ET] experience in five months here. We just came out of a heck of a family fight.
[2:49:27 PM ET] i can tell you is my experience in five months here
[2:49:32 PM ET] a serious, sober discussion. I think we came to
[2:49:32 PM ET] we just came out of a heck of a family fight
[2:49:32 PM ET] serious sober discussion i think we came to
[2:49:37 PM ET] the right policy decision for this moment, and I'm honored to be here and honored to
[2:49:37 PM ET] the right policy decision for this moment and i'm
[2:49:42 PM ET] be the chairman of this group. Maria Louisa, hello.
[2:49:42 PM ET] honored to be here and honored to be the chairman of this group
[2:49:47 PM ET] Chairman Worsh, Mayele Zacapuro with Bloomberg News.
[2:49:47 PM ET] chairman walsh mayalee zacapura with bloomberg news
[2:49:52 PM ET] So the economy is strong. Inflation is well above 2%. You're saying inflation expectation.
[2:49:52 PM ET] so the economy is strong inflation is well above two percent
[2:49:57 PM ET] are going the right way, but surveys show that households expect inflation to remain
[2:49:57 PM ET] you're saying inflation expectations are going the right way but service show that households
[2:50:02 PM ET] above the Fed's goal and not just for the short term. Using a hike
[2:50:02 PM ET] expect inflation to remain above the best goal and not just for the short term
[2:50:07 PM ET] today, other than waiting for more data, I haven't really heard the clear arguments as
[2:50:07 PM ET] using a hike today aren't that waiting for more data i haven't really
[2:50:12 PM ET] to that decision. So, do you worry that with today's decision, households
[2:50:12 PM ET] heard the clear arguments as to that decision so
[2:50:17 PM ET] may not believe your pledge to bring down inflation clearly and at sufficient
[2:50:17 PM ET] do you worry that to with today's decision
[2:50:17 PM ET] households may not believe your pledge to bring down inflation
[2:50:22 PM ET] speed, and instead will read this decision of holding rates steady as a sign that the
[2:50:22 PM ET] clearly and at sufficient speed and instead will read this decision of holding rates
[2:50:27 PM ET] central bank has, in fact, a soft inflation target? Yeah, so what I can
[2:50:27 PM ET] steady as a sign that the central bank has in fact a soft inflation target
[2:50:27 PM ET] yeah so
[2:50:32 PM ET] do is tell you there's no soft inflation target, there's no implicit inflation
[2:50:32 PM ET] what i can do is tell you there's no soft inflation target
[2:50:37 PM ET] target. There's a target of price stability, and it's 2% as measured by PCE.
[2:50:37 PM ET] there are no implicit inflation target there's a target of price stability and it's
[2:50:42 PM ET] It took six years for inflation to
[2:50:42 PM ET] two percent as measured by pce
[2:50:42 PM ET] it took six years
[2:50:47 PM ET] have the effect on consumers that you reference, but I would say
[2:50:47 PM ET] to for inflation to have the
[2:50:52 PM ET] this: when consumers interrogate reality, they look outside their window
[2:50:52 PM ET] effect on consumers that you reference but i would say this
[2:50:52 PM ET] when consumers interrogate reality
[2:50:57 PM ET] too. They go to the gas station too, and they see that prices are up.
[2:50:57 PM ET] they look outside their window too
[2:50:57 PM ET] they go to the gas station too and they see that prices are up
[2:51:02 PM ET] I am not going to be the guy who says that oil prices haven't gone up, and when they
[2:51:02 PM ET] i am the not gonna be the guy who says that
[2:51:07 PM ET] fill up their tank, they don't see it. And so inflation's gone up in expectations in
[2:51:07 PM ET] oil prices haven't gone up and when they fill up their tank they don't see it
[2:51:12 PM ET] the very near term because they're doing what we're doing: interrogating reality. But
[2:51:12 PM ET] and so inflation's gone up in expectations in the very near term
[2:51:17 PM ET] if you look out over the horizon, if you look at most, but not
[2:51:17 PM ET] because they're doing what we're doing interrogating reality
[2:51:17 PM ET] but if you look out over the horizon if you look at
[2:51:22 PM ET] all, measures, what you see is households, businesses,
[2:51:22 PM ET] most but not all measures what you see is
[2:51:27 PM ET] financial markets, they have the confidence that they should have, that the central bank will
[2:51:27 PM ET] households businesses financial markets they have the confidence
[2:51:32 PM ET] deliver price stability. Edward Lawrence.
[2:51:32 PM ET] that they should have that the central bank will deliver price stability
[2:51:32 PM ET] edward lawrence
[2:51:37 PM ET] Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Edward Lawrence for Fox Business.
[2:51:37 PM ET] lawrence
[2:51:42 PM ET] So, do you see a direct line correlation between oil prices and the inflation we're seeing in the United
[2:51:42 PM ET] thank you mister chairman edward lawrence fox business so
[2:51:42 PM ET] do you see a direct line correlation between oil prices in
[2:51:47 PM ET] States? And if so, how fast could inflation fall or react to falling oil prices?
[2:51:47 PM ET] inflation we're seeing in the united states and if so how fast could inflation fall or react
[2:51:52 PM ET] So I don't want to engage in hypotheticals, but I can look out our window and see what's
[2:51:52 PM ET] to falling oil prices so i don't wanna engage in hypotheticals but i can
[2:51:57 PM ET] happened. There had been a stable correlation
[2:51:57 PM ET] look out look out our window and see what's happened
[2:51:57 PM ET] there had been a stable correlation
[2:52:02 PM ET] between oil prices as they've moved up this year generally.
[2:52:02 PM ET] between oil prices as they moved up this
[2:52:02 PM ET] year generally
[2:52:07 PM ET] interest rates
[2:52:07 PM ET] and interest rates, not the interest rates that we control, but interest rates set in the
[2:52:12 PM ET] market. That correlation has been quite strong until very
[2:52:12 PM ET] not the interest rates that we control but interest rates set in the market
[2:52:12 PM ET] correlation
[2:52:12 PM ET] has been quite strong
[2:52:17 PM ET] recently. We've seen oil prices continue to move up, largely due to geopolitical.
[2:52:17 PM ET] until very recently we've seen oil prices
[2:52:17 PM ET] continue to move up
[2:52:22 PM ET] events. We've seen crack spreads between oil and refined
[2:52:22 PM ET] largely due to geopolitical events
[2:52:27 PM ET] products continue to stay elevated. But what's happened? Interest rates have rolled over to
[2:52:27 PM ET] we've seen crack spreads between oil and refined products continue to
[2:52:27 PM ET] stay elevated
[2:52:27 PM ET] what's happened
[2:52:32 PM ET] the downside. I'm not a Wall Street
[2:52:32 PM ET] interest rates have rolled over to the downside
[2:52:37 PM ET] newsletter. I'm just telling you when I look out the window over the last several months, that is what we've
[2:52:37 PM ET] i not a wall street newsletter i'm just telling you when
[2:52:42 PM ET] seen. To the extent that oil prices were to
[2:52:42 PM ET] i look out the window over the last several months that is what we've seen
[2:52:47 PM ET] move lower, again, probably due to geopolitical events, that's something that we're going to have
[2:52:47 PM ET] to the extent that oil prices were to move lower
[2:52:52 PM ET] interrogate. What are the effects on the Fed's dual mandate?
[2:52:52 PM ET] again probably due to geopolitical events
[2:52:52 PM ET] that's something that we're gonna have to interrogate
[2:52:57 PM ET] What are the effects on financial market prices? And what are we going to do about it? But that's a
[2:52:57 PM ET] what are the effects on the fed's dual mandate
[2:52:57 PM ET] what are the effects on financial market prices and what are we gonna do about it
[2:53:02 PM ET] hypothetical. And in fact, if we look at financial market prices,
[2:53:02 PM ET] but that's a hypothetical and in fact if we look at
[2:53:02 PM ET] financial market prices
[2:53:07 PM ET] futures prices for oil, they've moved up over the course of the last several
[2:53:07 PM ET] futures prices for oil
[2:53:12 PM ET] weeks, and I can't help but take note of that too.
[2:53:12 PM ET] they've moved up over the course of the last several weeks and i can't help but take note of that too
[2:53:12 PM ET] claire
[2:53:17 PM ET] Claire. Thank you. Claire Jones,
[2:53:22 PM ET] Financial Times. Much of the growth that we're seeing in the US economy now, and
[2:53:22 PM ET] thank you claire jones financial times
[2:53:27 PM ET] quite a bit of the inflation too, is coming from the AI boom. There's quite
[2:53:27 PM ET] much of the growth that we're seeing in the us economy now and quite a bit of the inflation
[2:53:27 PM ET] too
[2:53:27 PM ET] is coming from the ai boom
[2:53:32 PM ET] a lively debate as to whether or not this is a rich part of the
[2:53:32 PM ET] there's quite a lively debate as to whether or not
[2:53:37 PM ET] economy that's sensitive to interest rates in the same way as, say, housing. I'd love
[2:53:37 PM ET] you know this is a part of the economy that
[2:53:37 PM ET] sensitive to interest rates in the same way as say
[2:53:42 PM ET] to get your sense of, you know, do rates need to rise
[2:53:42 PM ET] housing i'd love to get
[2:53:47 PM ET] more, given that so much of the US economy now is about AI than it otherwise would
[2:53:47 PM ET] your sense of you know the rate
[2:53:47 PM ET] rates need to rise more given that so much of the us economy now is about
[2:53:52 PM ET] if, say, you know, housing was a bigger part of the story. Thank you. Thank you, Claire.
[2:53:52 PM ET] ai than it otherwise would if say you know housing was a bigger part of the story
[2:53:57 PM ET] So there was a narrative for quite a while, maybe even in this
[2:53:57 PM ET] thank you thank you claire so
[2:53:57 PM ET] there was a narrative
[2:53:57 PM ET] for quite a while
[2:54:02 PM ET] room over the course of the last several press conferences. Well, they're going to raise
[2:54:02 PM ET] maybe even in this room over the course of the last several press conferences
[2:54:07 PM ET] rates, they're talking about raising rates, but it's not going to have any effect on AI because
[2:54:07 PM ET] well they're gonna raise rates they're talking about raising rates
[2:54:12 PM ET] the returns that investors are expecting are so different. I was skeptical of
[2:54:12 PM ET] it's not gonna have any effects on ai because
[2:54:12 PM ET] the returns that investors are expecting are so different
[2:54:17 PM ET] that view. Interest rates get in the cracks, interest rates
[2:54:17 PM ET] i was skeptical of that view
[2:54:22 PM ET] affect directly or indirectly almost everything.
[2:54:22 PM ET] interest rates get in the cracks interest rates affect
[2:54:27 PM ET] And what have we seen? Since early September, what we've
[2:54:27 PM ET] directly or indirectly almost everything
[2:54:27 PM ET] and what have we seen since early september
[2:54:32 PM ET] seen inside of the technology complex.
[2:54:32 PM ET] what we've seen inside of the
[2:54:37 PM ET] outside of the technology complex, whether you pronounce
[2:54:37 PM ET] technology complex
[2:54:37 PM ET] of the technology complex
[2:54:42 PM ET] it AI or SI, Claire, is up to you. What have you seen? Interest
[2:54:42 PM ET] whether you pronounce it ai or si claire is up to you
[2:54:42 PM ET] what have you seen
[2:54:47 PM ET] rates have had an effect. You see market participants that are
[2:54:47 PM ET] interest rates have had an effect you see market participants that are
[2:54:52 PM ET] discriminating
[2:54:52 PM ET] discriminating between the kinds of investments they want to make. You've seen credit.
[2:54:57 PM ET] spreads for certain assets widen out, gap out. For others, you've
[2:54:57 PM ET] between the kinds of investments they wanna make
[2:54:57 PM ET] you've seen credit spreads for certain assets widen out
[2:55:02 PM ET] seen some tightening in financial conditions, but not significantly. So, on the thrust of
[2:55:02 PM ET] gap out for others you've seen some tightening in financial conditions but not
[2:55:07 PM ET] your question of with respect to the new technology and this
[2:55:07 PM ET] so on the thrust of your question of
[2:55:12 PM ET] investment surge, do interest rates matter? I believe they do, and I don't believe they
[2:55:12 PM ET] with respect to the new technology and this investment surge
[2:55:17 PM ET] that they're somehow divorced from the rest of the economy. Secondly, I'll just say this.
[2:55:17 PM ET] do interest rates matter i believe they do and i don't believe that
[2:55:22 PM ET] it is convenient to say that the strength of the economy is all
[2:55:22 PM ET] somehow divorced from the rest of the economy secondly i'll just say this
[2:55:27 PM ET] about this new technology wave. In fact, if we look at the
[2:55:27 PM ET] it is convenient to say that the strength of the economy is all about
[2:55:32 PM ET] data, really including data from the last meeting till this,
[2:55:32 PM ET] this new technology wave
[2:55:32 PM ET] in fact if we look at the data
[2:55:37 PM ET] the CAPEC story is not just robust, not just strong, but it is
[2:55:37 PM ET] really including data from the last meeting till this
[2:55:37 PM ET] the capex story is not just robust not just
[2:55:42 PM ET] broadening. And so if you want to tell the story somehow that this is strength
[2:55:42 PM ET] strong but it is broadening and so if you want to tell the
[2:55:42 PM ET] story somehow that this is
[2:55:47 PM ET] we're seeing only in narrow pockets, it's a much harder story to tell now than it would have been several
[2:55:47 PM ET] strength we're seeing only in narrow pockets it's a much harder
[2:55:52 PM ET] quarters ago. Elizabeth, on the back front.
[2:55:52 PM ET] story to tell now than it would have been several quarters ago
[2:55:52 PM ET] elizabeth
[2:55:57 PM ET] Thanks so much, Elizabeth Schulze with ABC News. As you know, the midterm
[2:55:57 PM ET] so much elizabeth schultzy with abc news
[2:56:02 PM ET] elections are in six days. Did the midterms factor into the Fed's decision to stay on
[2:56:02 PM ET] as you know the midterm elections are in six days did the midterms factor into the fed's decision
[2:56:02 PM ET] to stay on hold
[2:56:07 PM ET] hold? And if not, how can you assure the American public that politics were not at play
[2:56:07 PM ET] and if not how can you assure the american public that politics were not at play
[2:56:12 PM ET] here? So, politics played no role in the
[2:56:12 PM ET] here so
[2:56:17 PM ET] decision. I just spent two days with my colleagues upstairs. I didn't hear
[2:56:17 PM ET] politics played no role in the decision
[2:56:22 PM ET] an utterance about politics. I didn't hear a reference to
[2:56:22 PM ET] i just spent two days with my colleagues upstairs
[2:56:22 PM ET] i didn't hear an utterance about politics i didn't hear a reference to
[2:56:27 PM ET] politics, elections, what's happening in the next week or so. I didn't hear
[2:56:27 PM ET] politics elections what's happening in the next week or so
[2:56:32 PM ET] anything about it. And I don't believe it had any role in the
[2:56:32 PM ET] didn't hear anything about it
[2:56:32 PM ET] and i
[2:56:37 PM ET] decision, not just for me, but my colleagues around the room. But I will say it's
[2:56:37 PM ET] don't believe it had any role in the decision not just for me but my
[2:56:37 PM ET] colleagues around the room
[2:56:42 PM ET] an information-rich interval in the coming period, having nothing to do
[2:56:42 PM ET] but i will say it's a information rich interval
[2:56:47 PM ET] with politics. Chris, Rue Gaber.
[2:56:47 PM ET] in the coming period having nothing to do with politics
[2:56:47 PM ET] chris
[2:56:52 PM ET] Hi, thank you, Chris Rugaber at Associated Press. I know you don't like
[2:56:52 PM ET] hi thank you chris rugaber at associated press
[2:56:57 PM ET] the statement of economic projections, but last month they did, your colleagues penciled
[2:56:57 PM ET] know you don't like the statement of economic projections but
[2:57:02 PM ET] in another rate hike for this year. And so, could you give us your sense from this meeting?
[2:57:02 PM ET] last month they did your colleagues penciled in another rate hike for this year
[2:57:02 PM ET] and so could you give us your sense from this meeting
[2:57:07 PM ET] whether you still see widespread support for another hike this year around the
[2:57:07 PM ET] whether you still see widespread
[2:57:12 PM ET] table. Thank you. So the blackout period for them ends, I think, on Friday or at some point over the
[2:57:12 PM ET] support for another hike this year around the table thank you
[2:57:17 PM ET] weekend. So they might indulge you in that discussion.
[2:57:17 PM ET] so the blackout period for them ends i think on friday
[2:57:17 PM ET] at some point over the weekend so they they might they might indulge you in in that discussion
[2:57:22 PM ET] I don't believe in forward guidance, absent exigent
[2:57:22 PM ET] i don't believe in forward guidance
[2:57:27 PM ET] circumstances, absent a crisis. I have to give that caveat because, you
[2:57:27 PM ET] absent exigent circumstances absent a crisis i have to give that caveat
[2:57:27 PM ET] because
[2:57:32 PM ET] the darkest days of the 2008 financial crisis, in part,
[2:57:32 PM ET] in the darkest days of the two thousand eight financial crisis
[2:57:37 PM ET] using some literature and thinking from a very recent Nobel Prize
[2:57:37 PM ET] in part using some literature and thinking from a very
[2:57:42 PM ET] winner, that kind of forward guidance is actually quite helpful. But in normal, ordinary times,
[2:57:42 PM ET] nobel prize winner that kind of forward guidance is actually quite helpful but in normal or
[2:57:47 PM ET] especially times where the underlying real economy is this strong, I don't believe in
[2:57:47 PM ET] ordinary times especially times where the underlying real economy is this
[2:57:47 PM ET] strong i
[2:57:52 PM ET] it. I don't favor it. I also don't believe in prejudging meetings.
[2:57:52 PM ET] believe in it i don't favor it
[2:57:57 PM ET] A lot of things can happen. So I'm not going to be able to.
[2:57:57 PM ET] also don't believe in prejudging meetings a lot of things can happen
[2:57:57 PM ET] so i'm not gonna be able to
[2:57:57 PM ET] to
[2:58:02 PM ET] share with you my musings about what happens when this group gets together six weeks from
[2:58:02 PM ET] share with you my musings about what happens when this group gets together
[2:58:07 PM ET] from now. But my judgment is that we might learn a lot and like
[2:58:07 PM ET] six weeks from now but my judgment is that we might
[2:58:12 PM ET] in my response to Colby's question, we'll be, I think,
[2:58:12 PM ET] learn a lot and like in my response to colby's question
[2:58:17 PM ET] better positioned to determine the right policy decision and the
[2:58:17 PM ET] will be i think better positioned to determine
[2:58:22 PM ET] stance of policy.
[2:58:22 PM ET] the right policy decision and the stance of policy
[2:58:22 PM ET] same lee
[2:58:27 PM ET] Sang Li. Hi, my name is Sangung Lee from the Korea Economic Daily Newspaper. I got a question as
[2:58:27 PM ET] hi my name is lee from the korea economic daily newspaper i got a
[2:58:32 PM ET] a foreign press. You have spoken several times about the possibility of the
[2:58:32 PM ET] question as a foreign press you have spoken several
[2:58:37 PM ET] Fed shrinking its balance sheet further. If that plan moves forward
[2:58:37 PM ET] times about the possibility of the fed shrinking its
[2:58:42 PM ET] later, how would you avoid disrupting foreign official holders of
[2:58:42 PM ET] balance sheet further if that plan moves forward later
[2:58:47 PM ET] treasuries or dollar funding markets abroad like South Korea and Japan?
[2:58:47 PM ET] how would you avoid disrupting foreign official holders of treasuries
[2:58:47 PM ET] or dollar funding markets abroad like south korea and japan
[2:58:52 PM ET] So, thank you for your question. First off, I would say I pay probably
[2:58:52 PM ET] so thank you for your question
[2:58:52 PM ET] first off i would say
[2:58:57 PM ET] more attention to the Korean economy than you might think because when I'm looking
[2:58:57 PM ET] i pay probably more attention to the korean economy than you might think
[2:59:02 PM ET] at the feedstocks effectively for this new surge in
[2:59:02 PM ET] because when i'm looking at
[2:59:07 PM ET] technology. A lot of it's coming from Japan and Korea, some from Singapore.
[2:59:07 PM ET] the feedstocks effectively for this new
[2:59:07 PM ET] surge in technology a lot of it's coming from japan and korea
[2:59:12 PM ET] So I'm particularly interested in what's happening in the Korean economy, usually because it's telling me
[2:59:12 PM ET] some from singapore so i'm particularly interested
[2:59:17 PM ET] what's on planes and ships coming this way. Secondly, I should say
[2:59:17 PM ET] in in what's happening in the korean economy usually because it's telling me what's
[2:59:17 PM ET] what's on planes and ships coming this way
[2:59:22 PM ET] that your new central bank governor is someone I've known for 20 years.
[2:59:22 PM ET] secondly i should say that your new central bank governor is somewhat
[2:59:27 PM ET] and is a very talented guy and a good friend. So I'm glad he's in that
[2:59:27 PM ET] i've known for twenty years and is very
[2:59:32 PM ET] post. He and I met actually about 20 years ago amid
[2:59:32 PM ET] talented guy and a good friend so i'm glad he's in that post
[2:59:32 PM ET] he and i met actually about twenty years ago
[2:59:37 PM ET] the global financial crisis as it would come to be known. And I remember
[2:59:37 PM ET] amid the global financial crisis as it would come to be known
[2:59:42 PM ET] this is a generation of discussions with him about the use of the balance sheet in exigence
[2:59:42 PM ET] and i remember this is a generational discussions with him about the use of the balance
[2:59:47 PM ET] circumstances like we had then. At this point, the balance sheet
[2:59:47 PM ET] sheet in exigent circumstances like we had then
[2:59:52 PM ET] is solely within the four walls of the balance sheet task force. Now, I have
[2:59:52 PM ET] at this point the balance sheet is
[2:59:57 PM ET] checked in with them, full disclosure. They're working away and comparing their best
[2:59:57 PM ET] solely within the four walls of the balance sheet task force
[2:59:57 PM ET] now i have checked in with them full disclosure they are working away and comparing their best
[3:00:02 PM ET] thoughts. And I think the conclusions they come to, the recommendations they come
[3:00:02 PM ET] thoughts and i think the conclusions they come to the recommendation
[3:00:07 PM ET] to, will be fed into the FOMC probably early in the first
[3:00:07 PM ET] they come to will be fed into the fomc
[3:00:07 PM ET] probably early in the first quarter
[3:00:12 PM ET] quarter, but don't hold me exactly to that timing. And if
[3:00:12 PM ET] but don't hold me exactly to that timing and
[3:00:17 PM ET] we decide to make changes in the balance sheet, it will be after a serious
[3:00:17 PM ET] and if we decide to make changes in the balance sheet
[3:00:22 PM ET] consideration of their proposals and their recommendations. I think it is unlikely to have
[3:00:22 PM ET] it'll be after a serious consideration of their proposals and their
[3:00:22 PM ET] recommendations i think it
[3:00:27 PM ET] any material effect on this policy conjuncture, but it's a question we should get to the
[3:00:27 PM ET] is unlikely to have any material effect on this policy conjuncture
[3:00:32 PM ET] bottom to, and I look forward to doing it with the help of the outside task force.
[3:00:32 PM ET] but it's a question we should get to the bottom too and i i look forward to doing it with the help of the outside
[3:00:32 PM ET] task force
[3:00:42 PM ET] Nick Temeros of the Wall Street Journal. Chairman Worsch, I want to follow up on your answer to
[3:00:42 PM ET] nick temaros of the wall street journal chairman bush
[3:00:47 PM ET] Claire's question. As the AI investment boom becomes more dependent on
[3:00:47 PM ET] i wanna follow-up on your answer to claire's question is the ai investment boom
[3:00:47 PM ET] becomes more dependent
[3:00:52 PM ET] external financing. Does that make aggregate demand more
[3:00:52 PM ET] on external financing does that make aggregate demand
[3:00:57 PM ET] sensitive to interest rates than it was before? And related to that, when
[3:00:57 PM ET] more sensitive to interest rates
[3:01:02 PM ET] you removed a dose of accommodation last month, did you see about what you bargained
[3:01:02 PM ET] than it was before and related to that when you removed a dose
[3:01:02 PM ET] of accommodation last month did you see about what you bargained for
[3:01:07 PM ET] for? So you gave me two questions, and neither of them had any sort of parliamentary
[3:01:07 PM ET] so you gave me two questions and neither of them
[3:01:12 PM ET] out. So you're giving me the opportunity to choose which of those.
[3:01:12 PM ET] were ahead of any sort of parliamentary out so you're giving me the opportunity to choose
[3:01:17 PM ET] So I'll answer your second
[3:01:17 PM ET] choose choose which of those
[3:01:17 PM ET] enough so
[3:01:22 PM ET] question. When we removed a dose of accommodation, I don't know, six weeks
[3:01:22 PM ET] i'll answer your second question
[3:01:27 PM ET] ago, we don't have perfect foresight on what financial markets are going to
[3:01:27 PM ET] when we removed a dose of accommodation i don't know six weeks ago
[3:01:32 PM ET] we don't have perfect foresight on what financial markets are going to do with it
[3:01:32 PM ET] do with it, but broadly I would say the effects on financial
[3:01:32 PM ET] but broadly i would say the
[3:01:37 PM ET] markets, on financial market conditions, broadly were consistent with my expectations.
[3:01:37 PM ET] effects on financial markets on financial market conditions
[3:01:42 PM ET] Howard Schneider.
[3:01:42 PM ET] broadly were with consistent with my expectations
[3:01:42 PM ET] howard schneider
[3:01:47 PM ET] Howard Schneider with Reuters. Thank you, Chairman Burch. I'm going to take Nick's first
[3:01:47 PM ET] howard schneider with reuters thank you chairman of virch i'm i'm gonna take nick's
[3:01:52 PM ET] question then. Okay, p give it to me again. I don't remember. No, it's about aggregate aggregate demand and
[3:01:52 PM ET] first question then okay give it to me again i don't remember no well it's about aggregate
[3:01:57 PM ET] the components of inflation. A lot of your colleagues have said they felt the investment boom in AI was
[3:01:57 PM ET] aggregate demand and the components of inflation a lot of your colleagues
[3:02:02 PM ET] now adding a strong demand component to inflation, and this was a handoff from
[3:02:02 PM ET] have said they felt the investment boom in ai was now adding a strong
[3:02:07 PM ET] the supply side concerns that might be expected to fade over time. How much do
[3:02:07 PM ET] demand component to inflation and this was a handoff from the
[3:02:12 PM ET] you think demand is adding to inflation right now, and how
[3:02:12 PM ET] supply side concerns that might be expected to fade over time
[3:02:12 PM ET] how much do you think demand is adding to inflation right now
[3:02:17 PM ET] sensitive will that be to Fed control? Good, good, good, good, good pickup of
[3:02:17 PM ET] and how sensitive will that be to fed
[3:02:22 PM ET] that. Good team effort. So I'd say
[3:02:22 PM ET] fed control good good good good good pickup of that good team effort
[3:02:27 PM ET] this. The only things we really know in economics and supply and demand
[3:02:27 PM ET] so so i'd say this
[3:02:32 PM ET] costs are measures of the size and the shape of the aggregate
[3:02:32 PM ET] the only things we really know in economics and supply and demand cross
[3:02:37 PM ET] demand curve is imperfect. Broadly, what I heard in the room the last couple of days is
[3:02:37 PM ET] are measures of the size and the
[3:02:37 PM ET] shape of the aggregate demand curve is imperfect
[3:02:42 PM ET] consistent with my own views, which is the economy is strong. I didn't try to sugarcoat
[3:02:42 PM ET] broadly what i heard in the room the last couple of days is consistent with my own views which is
[3:02:47 PM ET] that in the first part of my statement. The economy has been marked up for the first
[3:02:47 PM ET] the economy is strong i didn't try to sugarcoat that in the
[3:02:52 PM ET] three quarters. The economy is pointing in the right direction. Is the economy
[3:02:52 PM ET] first part of my statement the economy has been marked up for the first three quarters
[3:02:57 PM ET] running too hot? Is the economy running too strong?
[3:02:57 PM ET] the economy is pointing in the right direction
[3:02:57 PM ET] is the economy running too hot is the economy running too
[3:03:02 PM ET] That isn't the judgment of most of my colleagues. Part of it is we never know
[3:03:02 PM ET] strong that isn't the judgment of most of my colleagues
[3:03:07 PM ET] what potential growth really is, Howard. My judgment is, we have
[3:03:07 PM ET] part of it is we never know what potential growth really is howard
[3:03:12 PM ET] seen an improvement in productivity. We can't measure it
[3:03:12 PM ET] my judgment is we have seen an
[3:03:12 PM ET] improvement in productivity
[3:03:17 PM ET] precisely. I think most of that change in productivity precedes everything we're talking
[3:03:17 PM ET] we can't measure it precisely i think most of that change in productivity
[3:03:22 PM ET] about, super intelligence, but productivity has been moving higher in the
[3:03:22 PM ET] precedes everything we're talking about
[3:03:27 PM ET] economy, however, imperfectly measured, I think for a couple of years.
[3:03:27 PM ET] superintelligence but productivity has been moving higher in the economy
[3:03:32 PM ET] And so economic growth is higher, but that doesn't tell me that economic growth is
[3:03:32 PM ET] however imperfectly measured i think for a couple of years
[3:03:32 PM ET] and so economic growth is higher but that doesn't tell me that
[3:03:37 PM ET] somehow causing inflation and making our job harder. But we'll be continuing to
[3:03:37 PM ET] economic growth is somehow causing inflation and making our job harder
[3:03:42 PM ET] look at those issues. The goal, in my view, and you've heard me say this
[3:03:42 PM ET] but we'll be continuing to look at those issues
[3:03:47 PM ET] before, isn't to throw sand in the gears of the economy and throw people out of work. I don't
[3:03:47 PM ET] the goal in my view and you've heard me say this before
[3:03:52 PM ET] think we have to do that. The dominant means in which this policy is going to be put into practice
[3:03:52 PM ET] isn't to throw sand in the gears of the economy and
[3:03:52 PM ET] throw people out of work i don't think we have to do that
[3:03:57 PM ET] is we are tightening financial conditions. They've tightened a bit since
[3:03:57 PM ET] the dominant means in which this policy is going to be put into practice is we are tightening
[3:03:57 PM ET] conditions
[3:04:02 PM ET] we met last time. That isn't something that we're uncomfortable with. That tells me that policy
[3:04:02 PM ET] they've tightened a bit since we met last time
[3:04:07 PM ET] is working, and I think we can do that and make the economy more
[3:04:07 PM ET] that isn't something that we're uncomfortable with that tells me that policy is working
[3:04:07 PM ET] i think we can do that and make the economy
[3:04:12 PM ET] durable, have it last longer, and still achieve stable prices. Okay, we'll go to
[3:04:12 PM ET] more durable have it last longer and still achieve stable prices
[3:04:17 PM ET] Victoria for the last question. Hi,
[3:04:17 PM ET] okay we'll go to victoria for the last question
[3:04:22 PM ET] Chair Worsh. Victoria Guido with Politico. I wanted to ask: next week is
[3:04:22 PM ET] hi chairworsch
[3:04:22 PM ET] victoria guida with politico i wanted to ask next week is
[3:04:27 PM ET] a hearing at the White House on Lisa Cook's future and allegations that have been made against
[3:04:27 PM ET] a hearing at the white house on lisa cook's future
[3:04:32 PM ET] her. Are you personally or the Fed as an institution going to be involved at all in those
[3:04:32 PM ET] and allegations that have been made against her are you personally or the fed as an institution going to
[3:04:32 PM ET] be involved at all in those proceedings
[3:04:37 PM ET] proceedings? Not to my knowledge. Thank you. Thank you,
[3:04:37 PM ET] not to my knowledge
[3:04:42 PM ET] guys.
[3:04:42 PM ET] okay thank you alright thank you guys
[3:05:02 PM ET] Uh I have to find.
[3:05:07 PM ET] that on the other side.
[3:05:17 PM ET] No, you're not going to touch it, but I don't know why it's
[3:05:22 PM ET] see it. Oh no, we haven't. I don't think we will since we get
[3:05:30 PM ET] In that room the last couple of days, the overwhelming consensus, the
[3:05:30 PM ET] in that room the last couple of days
[3:05:30 PM ET] the overwhelming consensus the over disclosure
[3:05:30 PM ET] overwhelming disclosure, public disclosure on the meetings where you're not going to have a statement. So, two questions, I'm
[3:05:30 PM ET] public disclosure on the meetings where you're not gonna have a statement so two questions
[3:05:30 PM ET] i'm sorry is that on the parliamentary question which doesn't count as a question
[3:05:30 PM ET] i'll just say this all in the context of
[3:05:30 PM ET] sorry. On the parliamentary question, which doesn't count as a question, I'll just say this, all in the context of financial stability. Now, they gave us some other homework to
[3:05:30 PM ET] financial stability now they gave us some other homework to do on anything that would
[3:05:31 PM ET] a final report but i have done some periodic check ins with
[3:05:31 PM ET] do on anything that would constitute a final report. But I have done some periodic check-ins with this policy conjuncture, given the important role as consumers of these ideas that my
[3:05:31 PM ET] this policy conjuncture given the the important role as consumers of these ideas
[3:05:31 PM ET] colleague experts in their fields think about this, what are the implications? To quotes from public officials, what I can tell you is, Mike's. World Bank has, in fact, a soft inflation target. Yeah, so what I can do
[3:05:31 PM ET] my colleague what do experts in their fields think about this
[3:05:31 PM ET] what are the implication to quote
[3:05:31 PM ET] is price stability. Edward Marx. To the extent that oil prices were to move given that so much of the U.S. economy now is about AI than it otherwise would
[3:05:31 PM ET] from public officials what i can tell you is mike's well bank has in fact
[3:05:31 PM ET] if something between the kinds of investments they want to make. You've seen credits are in six days. Did the midterms factor into the Fed's decision to stay on hold? Whether you still see widespread support for another hike this year around the
[3:05:31 PM ET] a soft inflation target yeah so
[3:05:31 PM ET] what i can do price stability
[3:05:31 PM ET] edward lawrence
[3:05:31 PM ET] Position to determine the right policy decision and the stance. Your new central bank governor is someone I've known for 20 years. A material effect on this policy conjuncture, but it's a question we should get to the
[3:05:31 PM ET] to the extent
[3:05:31 PM ET] that oil prices were to move given that so much
[3:05:31 PM ET] bottom. It's on financial market conditions. Broadly, we're consistent with my expectations. Consistent with my own views, which is the economy is strong. I didn't try to sugarcoat that. Isn't to throw sand in the gears of the economy and throw people out of work. I don't think we.
[3:05:31 PM ET] of the us economy now is about ai than it otherwise would have seen
[3:05:31 PM ET] between the kinds of investments they wanna make
[3:05:32 PM ET] you've seen credit are in six days did the midterms factor into the
[3:05:32 PM ET] fed's decision to stay on hold
[3:05:32 PM ET] and whether you still see widespread
[3:05:32 PM ET] support for another hike this year around the table position to determine
[3:05:32 PM ET] the right policy decision in the stance your new
[3:05:32 PM ET] central bank governor is someone i've known for twenty years
[3:05:32 PM ET] the material effect on this policy conjuncture
[3:05:32 PM ET] but it's a question we should get to the bottom it's on financial market conditions
[3:05:32 PM ET] broadly were with consistent with my expect consistent with my own views which is the
[3:05:32 PM ET] economy is strong i didn't try to sugarcoat that isn't a
[3:05:32 PM ET] throw sand in the gears of the economy and throw people out of work i don't think
[3:05:33 PM ET] In case you can't do
[3:05:34 PM ET] capital
[3:05:35 PM ET] investment,
[3:05:35 PM ET] in capital investment robust
[3:05:36 PM ET] robust.
[3:05:37 PM ET] Job gains have
[3:05:37 PM ET] kept
[3:05:38 PM ET] pace with the
[3:05:39 PM ET] workforce and
[3:05:39 PM ET] the
[3:05:40 PM ET] unemployment rate
[3:05:40 PM ET] job gains have kept pace with the workforce
[3:05:40 PM ET] has
[3:05:41 PM ET] changed
[3:05:42 PM ET] little.
[3:05:42 PM ET] and the unemployment rate has changed little
[3:05:42 PM ET] but
[3:05:43 PM ET] but
[3:05:44 PM ET] inflation remains
[3:05:45 PM ET] elevated.
[3:05:45 PM ET] inflation remains elevated
[3:05:46 PM ET] Inflation is too
[3:05:47 PM ET] high. The economy is
[3:05:48 PM ET] strong. Yet the Fed
[3:05:49 PM ET] decided to
[3:05:50 PM ET] hold. The opening statement
[3:05:50 PM ET] inflation is too high the economy is strong yet the fed decided to hold
[3:05:51 PM ET] more consistent with the Federal
[3:05:52 PM ET] Fed share that
[3:05:53 PM ET] just
[3:05:53 PM ET] hiked interest
[3:05:54 PM ET] rates. Never mind keeping them on
[3:05:54 PM ET] the opening statement more consistent with the fed chair that just hiked interest rates
[3:05:55 PM ET] change. So, what had
[3:05:56 PM ET] changed? And the one thing
[3:05:57 PM ET] that he
[3:05:57 PM ET] did open the
[3:05:58 PM ET] door
[3:05:58 PM ET] to was
[3:05:58 PM ET] never mind keeping them unchanged so what had changed and the one thing that he did open the door
[3:05:59 PM ET] the
[3:05:59 PM ET] potential
[3:06:00 PM ET] that
[3:06:00 PM ET] market
[3:06:00 PM ET] volatility
[3:06:01 PM ET] started
[3:06:02 PM ET] to
[3:06:02 PM ET] give
[3:06:02 PM ET] the
[3:06:03 PM ET] sense
[3:06:03 PM ET] that
[3:06:03 PM ET] to was the potential that market volatility
[3:06:03 PM ET] maybe
[3:06:04 PM ET] something
[3:06:04 PM ET] else
[3:06:04 PM ET] was going
[3:06:04 PM ET] on that
[3:06:05 PM ET] they needed
[3:06:05 PM ET] to
[3:06:06 PM ET] monitor.
[3:06:06 PM ET] started to give the sense that maybe something else was going on that they needed to monitor he said that
[3:06:06 PM ET] He said that this
[3:06:07 PM ET] interval
[3:06:07 PM ET] of
[3:06:07 PM ET] time
[3:06:08 PM ET] is
[3:06:09 PM ET] information
[3:06:09 PM ET] rich.
[3:06:10 PM ET] He also said that the time is a very important
[3:06:10 PM ET] that, you
[3:06:11 PM ET] know,
[3:06:11 PM ET] might
[3:06:11 PM ET] be
[3:06:11 PM ET] this interval of time is information rich
[3:06:12 PM ET] worried about the
[3:06:12 PM ET] same
[3:06:12 PM ET] old
[3:06:13 PM ET] things,
[3:06:13 PM ET] but this
[3:06:13 PM ET] is actually a lot of
[3:06:14 PM ET] new
[3:06:14 PM ET] he also said that you know you might be worried about the same old things
[3:06:15 PM ET] regime.
[3:06:15 PM ET] It may look like
[3:06:16 PM ET] it's just
[3:06:16 PM ET] one
[3:06:16 PM ET] rate
[3:06:17 PM ET] hike that they've
[3:06:17 PM ET] executed
[3:06:18 PM ET] since
[3:06:18 PM ET] he
[3:06:18 PM ET] but this is actually a new regime it may look like it's just one rate hike that they've
[3:06:18 PM ET] started
[3:06:19 PM ET] there, but
[3:06:19 PM ET] it's
[3:06:19 PM ET] actually
[3:06:20 PM ET] monetary
[3:06:20 PM ET] medicine, a
[3:06:21 PM ET] package
[3:06:21 PM ET] that the Federal
[3:06:21 PM ET] Fed
[3:06:22 PM ET] executed since he started there but it's actually monetary medicine a package that the fed started
[3:06:22 PM ET] started
[3:06:22 PM ET] five months
[3:06:23 PM ET] ago.
[3:06:23 PM ET] I think that's a good question.
[3:06:23 PM ET] idea.
[3:06:24 PM ET] He came ready,
[3:06:24 PM ET] really
[3:06:24 PM ET] close.
[3:06:25 PM ET] stopped just
[3:06:25 PM ET] short, became
[3:06:25 PM ET] really
[3:06:26 PM ET] came close to
[3:06:26 PM ET] Sanda
[3:06:27 PM ET] the
[3:06:27 PM ET] market's doing
[3:06:27 PM ET] five months ago he came really really close stopped just short
[3:06:27 PM ET] some of
[3:06:27 PM ET] the
[3:06:27 PM ET] work
[3:06:28 PM ET] for
[3:06:29 PM ET] us.
[3:06:29 PM ET] This
[3:06:30 PM ET] close.
[3:06:30 PM ET] became really close to saying the market's doing some of the work for us
[3:06:30 PM ET] That was the
[3:06:31 PM ET] only
[3:06:32 PM ET] this close that was the only explanation
[3:06:32 PM ET] explanation for what we
[3:06:32 PM ET] he
[3:06:33 PM ET] said
[3:06:33 PM ET] from what he said
[3:06:33 PM ET] that I was
[3:06:34 PM ET] gave
[3:06:34 PM ET] gives
[3:06:34 PM ET] any
[3:06:35 PM ET] justification
[3:06:36 PM ET] whatsoever
[3:06:36 PM ET] for
[3:06:36 PM ET] why
[3:06:37 PM ET] would
[3:06:37 PM ET] with that
[3:06:37 PM ET] rhetoric
[3:06:38 PM ET] and
[3:06:38 PM ET] that assessment of
[3:06:38 PM ET] that actually gives any justification whatsoever for why would that rhetoric
[3:06:38 PM ET] the
[3:06:39 PM ET] economy they did
[3:06:40 PM ET] not
[3:06:40 PM ET] hike.
[3:06:42 PM ET] I am fascinated what we'll
[3:06:42 PM ET] learn in the next
[3:06:42 PM ET] and that assessment of the economy they did not hike i am fascinated what we'll learn in the next
[3:06:43 PM ET] year and ten
[3:06:44 PM ET] years about
[3:06:45 PM ET] what
[3:06:45 PM ET] some of the things that we're
[3:06:45 PM ET] these
[3:06:45 PM ET] really
[3:06:46 PM ET] qualified
[3:06:46 PM ET] people
[3:06:47 PM ET] around the table at the end of the
[3:06:47 PM ET] year and ten years about some of these really
[3:06:48 PM ET] Eccles
[3:06:49 PM ET] building, what they think
[3:06:49 PM ET] of
[3:06:50 PM ET] this
[3:06:50 PM ET] qualified people around the table at the eccles building
[3:06:51 PM ET] approach.
[3:06:51 PM ET] I think that's what we haven't heard
[3:06:52 PM ET] yet.
[3:06:53 PM ET] It's only been five months,
[3:06:53 PM ET] what they think of this approach i think that's what we haven't heard yet
[3:06:54 PM ET] John.
[3:06:55 PM ET] But I think
[3:06:56 PM ET] conventional
[3:06:57 PM ET] it's only been five months john but i think conventional analysis
[3:06:58 PM ET] analysis
[3:06:58 PM ET] fails
[3:06:59 PM ET] given what we heard
[3:07:00 PM ET] there on
[3:07:01 PM ET] protocol and on new
[3:07:02 PM ET] monetary
[3:07:02 PM ET] fails given what we heard there on protocol
[3:07:03 PM ET] medicine.
[3:07:03 PM ET] Tom, the issue in the
[3:07:04 PM ET] risk,
[3:07:05 PM ET] this Fed chair always
[3:07:06 PM ET] ran. If you're
[3:07:06 PM ET] and on new monetary medicine tom the issue and the risk this fed chair always ran
[3:07:07 PM ET] on board with
[3:07:08 PM ET] ending forward
[3:07:09 PM ET] guidance,
[3:07:09 PM ET] and the
[3:07:10 PM ET] hyper-communication that we've been getting from
[3:07:10 PM ET] the
[3:07:11 PM ET] institution over the
[3:07:11 PM ET] if you're on board with ending forward guidance at the hypercommunication
[3:07:11 PM ET] last 10
[3:07:11 PM ET] ten
[3:07:12 PM ET] years, that's one
[3:07:13 PM ET] thing. Getting the rest of
[3:07:13 PM ET] committee
[3:07:13 PM ET] to
[3:07:14 PM ET] come with
[3:07:14 PM ET] you is
[3:07:14 PM ET] we were getting from the institution over the last ten years that's one thing getting the rest of the committee to
[3:07:15 PM ET] another.
[3:07:16 PM ET] The outcome of
[3:07:16 PM ET] this
[3:07:16 PM ET] meeting this afternoon.
[3:07:17 PM ET] is
[3:07:18 PM ET] that they've
[3:07:18 PM ET] reinforced
[3:07:19 PM ET] come with you is another the outcome of this meeting this afternoon
[3:07:19 PM ET] the
[3:07:19 PM ET] guidance we've
[3:07:19 PM ET] going
[3:07:19 PM ET] to
[3:07:19 PM ET] get
[3:07:19 PM ET] from
[3:07:20 PM ET] select
[3:07:21 PM ET] individuals
[3:07:21 PM ET] over the
[3:07:21 PM ET] next several
[3:07:22 PM ET] is they've reinforced the guidance we're gonna get from select individuals over the next several weeks
[3:07:22 PM ET] weeks.
[3:07:22 PM ET] In fact, the
[3:07:22 PM ET] first thing
[3:07:23 PM ET] I've
[3:07:23 PM ET] done
[3:07:23 PM ET] is
[3:07:23 PM ET] this
[3:07:23 PM ET] news
[3:07:24 PM ET] conference wraps
[3:07:24 PM ET] up
[3:07:24 PM ET] is
[3:07:24 PM ET] find
[3:07:25 PM ET] out
[3:07:25 PM ET] when
[3:07:25 PM ET] William
[3:07:25 PM ET] speaks
[3:07:26 PM ET] next.
[3:07:27 PM ET] November 6th for anyone
[3:07:27 PM ET] in fact the first thing i've done as this news conference wraps up is find out when william speaks
[3:07:27 PM ET] who's
[3:07:28 PM ET] interested. It's going to be
[3:07:28 PM ET] past
[3:07:28 PM ET] in the next
[3:07:28 PM ET] on
[3:07:29 PM ET] a
[3:07:29 PM ET] moderated
[3:07:30 PM ET] november sixth for anyone who's interested he's gonna be participating on a moderated
[3:07:31 PM ET] discussion.
[3:07:31 PM ET] All this happened
[3:07:32 PM ET] discussion all that's happened here
[3:07:32 PM ET] here
[3:07:32 PM ET] is
[3:07:33 PM ET] that
[3:07:33 PM ET] we've
[3:07:33 PM ET] just
[3:07:33 PM ET] found
[3:07:34 PM ET] out
[3:07:34 PM ET] that
[3:07:34 PM ET] when
[3:07:34 PM ET] you hear
[3:07:34 PM ET] from
[3:07:35 PM ET] Williams
[3:07:35 PM ET] and
[3:07:36 PM ET] Jefferson,
[3:07:36 PM ET] when they're
[3:07:36 PM ET] gun is
[3:07:37 PM ET] about
[3:07:37 PM ET] is that we've just found out that when you hear from williams and jefferson
[3:07:37 PM ET] October
[3:07:37 PM ET] or
[3:07:38 PM ET] whatever the
[3:07:38 PM ET] month of
[3:07:38 PM ET] might
[3:07:39 PM ET] be, comes in, even
[3:07:39 PM ET] if
[3:07:40 PM ET] it
[3:07:40 PM ET] predates the
[3:07:41 PM ET] when that gun is about october or whatever the month might be comes in even if it predates the
[3:07:41 PM ET] data, that's
[3:07:41 PM ET] what the
[3:07:42 PM ET] data that's what the policy
[3:07:42 PM ET] policy
[3:07:42 PM ET] is going to
[3:07:43 PM ET] be. Because a lot of
[3:07:44 PM ET] people on
[3:07:44 PM ET] Wall
[3:07:44 PM ET] Street
[3:07:45 PM ET] concluded
[3:07:45 PM ET] the debt.
[3:07:45 PM ET] data said
[3:07:46 PM ET] go.
[3:07:47 PM ET] The data
[3:07:47 PM ET] is going to be because a lot of people on wall street concluded the data said go
[3:07:47 PM ET] said
[3:07:47 PM ET] the data said hike
[3:07:48 PM ET] hike.
[3:07:48 PM ET] The rhetoric from the
[3:07:49 PM ET] Fed
[3:07:49 PM ET] share
[3:07:49 PM ET] is
[3:07:50 PM ET] miles
[3:07:50 PM ET] the rhetoric from the fed chair he's miles from that
[3:07:51 PM ET] from
[3:07:51 PM ET] that.
[3:07:51 PM ET] and
[3:07:51 PM ET] what you hear
[3:07:52 PM ET] from
[3:07:52 PM ET] Williams
[3:07:52 PM ET] and Jefferson is
[3:07:53 PM ET] that
[3:07:53 PM ET] we
[3:07:53 PM ET] can
[3:07:53 PM ET] take a month to
[3:07:54 PM ET] skip.
[3:07:55 PM ET] And everything
[3:07:55 PM ET] you
[3:07:55 PM ET] heard in that
[3:07:55 PM ET] and what you hear from williams and jefferson is that we can take a month to skip
[3:07:56 PM ET] news
[3:07:56 PM ET] conference
[3:07:57 PM ET] and everything you heard in that news conference about
[3:07:57 PM ET] about having
[3:07:58 PM ET] a
[3:07:58 PM ET] time
[3:07:58 PM ET] time-rich
[3:07:59 PM ET] conversation Brahmo
[3:08:00 PM ET] about the
[3:08:00 PM ET] next month or
[3:08:01 PM ET] so
[3:08:02 PM ET] Was everything Jefferson and
[3:08:02 PM ET] having a time rich conversation brahma about the
[3:08:03 PM ET] Williams told you
[3:08:03 PM ET] before
[3:08:04 PM ET] the day.
[3:08:04 PM ET] data even came
[3:08:05 PM ET] out a few weeks
[3:08:05 PM ET] month or so was everything jefferson and williams told you before the data even came out
[3:08:06 PM ET] Yeah, the reaction
[3:08:07 PM ET] function is even
[3:08:08 PM ET] less clear right
[3:08:09 PM ET] now, I think.
[3:08:10 PM ET] If this is a data-dependent
[3:08:10 PM ET] few weeks ago yeah the reaction function is even less
[3:08:10 PM ET] Fed
[3:08:11 PM ET] what data are they looking
[3:08:12 PM ET] for?
[3:08:13 PM ET] This is an
[3:08:13 PM ET] clear right now i think if this is a data dependent fed what
[3:08:14 PM ET] informational
[3:08:14 PM ET] rich
[3:08:14 PM ET] data are they looking for this is an informational rich
[3:08:15 PM ET] era, interval.
[3:08:16 PM ET] Is it
[3:08:16 PM ET] the
[3:08:17 PM ET] election? Is it oil
[3:08:18 PM ET] prices? Is it
[3:08:19 PM ET] CPI, which we just
[3:08:19 PM ET] era interval is it the election is it oil prices is it
[3:08:20 PM ET] got? Is it
[3:08:21 PM ET] GDP? Is it finger in the
[3:08:22 PM ET] wind? Let's look out the
[3:08:23 PM ET] window. Ultimately, we're not
[3:08:23 PM ET] cpi which we just got is it gdp is it finger in the wind let's look out
[3:08:24 PM ET] sure. This is
[3:08:24 PM ET] part
[3:08:25 PM ET] of the
[3:08:25 PM ET] issue that
[3:08:25 PM ET] I
[3:08:26 PM ET] think a lot of people are
[3:08:27 PM ET] the window ultimately we're not sure this is part of the issue that i think a lot of people are
[3:08:27 PM ET] having and
[3:08:27 PM ET] frankly, I think that's a lot of
[3:08:28 PM ET] almost at
[3:08:28 PM ET] this
[3:08:28 PM ET] point,
[3:08:29 PM ET] people would
[3:08:29 PM ET] welcome
[3:08:29 PM ET] the
[3:08:29 PM ET] fact
[3:08:30 PM ET] that
[3:08:30 PM ET] we
[3:08:30 PM ET] might
[3:08:30 PM ET] get
[3:08:31 PM ET] one
[3:08:31 PM ET] or
[3:08:31 PM ET] two
[3:08:31 PM ET] and frankly i think almost at this point people would welcome the fact that we might get
[3:08:32 PM ET] fewer
[3:08:32 PM ET] rate
[3:08:33 PM ET] deciding to
[3:08:33 PM ET] decisions.
[3:08:34 PM ET] because if this is
[3:08:34 PM ET] what
[3:08:34 PM ET] it's
[3:08:34 PM ET] going
[3:08:34 PM ET] to
[3:08:35 PM ET] be
[3:08:35 PM ET] it
[3:08:35 PM ET] doesn't
[3:08:35 PM ET] one or two fewer rate deciding decisions because
[3:08:35 PM ET] add
[3:08:36 PM ET] clarity.
[3:08:37 PM ET] conventional
[3:08:38 PM ET] analysis
[3:08:38 PM ET] if this is what it's going to be it doesn't add clarity i
[3:08:38 PM ET] here doesn't
[3:08:39 PM ET] work.
[3:08:40 PM ET] This
[3:08:40 PM ET] jonathan conventional analysis here doesn't work this guy
[3:08:40 PM ET] guy
[3:08:40 PM ET] is
[3:08:40 PM ET] on
[3:08:40 PM ET] another
[3:08:41 PM ET] is on another planet
[3:08:42 PM ET] planet
[3:08:42 PM ET] from
[3:08:42 PM ET] modern
[3:08:43 PM ET] monetary
[3:08:45 PM ET] If we
[3:08:45 PM ET] have to do that, can't do
[3:08:45 PM ET] this
[3:08:46 PM ET] every single
[3:08:46 PM ET] meeting, what's
[3:08:47 PM ET] the
[3:08:47 PM ET] from modern monetary don't wait two years if we have to do this every single meeting what's
[3:08:47 PM ET] point?
[3:08:47 PM ET] the point
[3:08:48 PM ET] Just bring it
[3:08:48 PM ET] down.
[3:08:48 PM ET] to
[3:08:48 PM ET] six
[3:08:49 PM ET] just bring it down to six now
[3:08:49 PM ET] now to
[3:08:49 PM ET] your
[3:08:50 PM ET] point,
[3:08:50 PM ET] Lisa, I
[3:08:50 PM ET] think most people
[3:08:51 PM ET] would
[3:08:51 PM ET] be on
[3:08:51 PM ET] board
[3:08:51 PM ET] with
[3:08:52 PM ET] that. Do
[3:08:52 PM ET] it
[3:08:53 PM ET] tomorrow. Why
[3:08:53 PM ET] wait
[3:08:53 PM ET] two
[3:08:54 PM ET] years? Make
[3:08:54 PM ET] it
[3:08:54 PM ET] happen to
[3:08:54 PM ET] to your point lisa i think most people would be on board with that do it tomorrow why wait two years
[3:08:55 PM ET] tomorrow.
[3:08:56 PM ET] The market
[3:08:57 PM ET] reaction, I
[3:08:57 PM ET] think, is
[3:08:58 PM ET] notable, and you are seeing a
[3:08:58 PM ET] steepening in the
[3:08:59 PM ET] yield
[3:08:59 PM ET] make it happen tomorrow the the market reaction think
[3:08:59 PM ET] curve and
[3:09:00 PM ET] the dollar
[3:09:00 PM ET] getting
[3:09:01 PM ET] weaker, and you start
[3:09:01 PM ET] to
[3:09:02 PM ET] wonder: okay, well,
[3:09:02 PM ET] is notable and you are seeing a steepening in the yield curve and the dollar getting weaker
[3:09:02 PM ET] what's
[3:09:02 PM ET] the
[3:09:03 PM ET] market
[3:09:04 PM ET] saying? Maybe
[3:09:05 PM ET] A,
[3:09:05 PM ET] that
[3:09:05 PM ET] regardless
[3:09:05 PM ET] and you start to wonder okay well what's the market saying
[3:09:06 PM ET] of how firm
[3:09:06 PM ET] they're
[3:09:07 PM ET] their 2% target
[3:09:07 PM ET] is, this
[3:09:08 PM ET] a Fed that's going to
[3:09:08 PM ET] wait a little
[3:09:08 PM ET] maybe a that regardless of how firm their two percent target is
[3:09:09 PM ET] bit
[3:09:10 PM ET] longer.
[3:09:10 PM ET] And a
[3:09:10 PM ET] real
[3:09:11 PM ET] question
[3:09:11 PM ET] around
[3:09:12 PM ET] the opportunities for
[3:09:12 PM ET] is a fed that's gonna wait a little bit longer and a real
[3:09:12 PM ET] them
[3:09:13 PM ET] to
[3:09:13 PM ET] actually make a
[3:09:14 PM ET] move if they have fewer
[3:09:15 PM ET] meetings to possibly
[3:09:15 PM ET] question around the opportunities for them to actually make a move if they have fewer meetings to
[3:09:16 PM ET] move
[3:09:16 PM ET] in.
[3:09:16 PM ET] on.
[3:09:17 PM ET] There's a critical
[3:09:17 PM ET] distinction
[3:09:18 PM ET] here.
[3:09:18 PM ET] There's a lot of people that
[3:09:19 PM ET] agree
[3:09:19 PM ET] with him that the
[3:09:19 PM ET] you
[3:09:19 PM ET] know,
[3:09:20 PM ET] John, I call it the
[3:09:20 PM ET] move there's a critical distinction here there's a lot of people
[3:09:21 PM ET] parlor game, I hate
[3:09:22 PM ET] it he wants to
[3:09:23 PM ET] get
[3:09:23 PM ET] away from the parlor
[3:09:23 PM ET] that agree with him that the you know john i call it the parlor game i hate it
[3:09:24 PM ET] game. He wants to get away
[3:09:24 PM ET] from the
[3:09:26 PM ET] dots, fewer
[3:09:26 PM ET] he wants to get away from the parlor game he wants to get away from the dots
[3:09:27 PM ET] meetings. Who had him
[3:09:28 PM ET] and
[3:09:28 PM ET] she sandwiches at
[3:09:29 PM ET] the day?
[3:09:29 PM ET] One
[3:09:30 PM ET] meeting, the usual
[3:09:30 PM ET] fewer meetings who had ham and cheese sandwiches at the day
[3:09:31 PM ET] thing. Sure.
[3:09:32 PM ET] Fine. Okay, that's
[3:09:33 PM ET] great. But he
[3:09:34 PM ET] wants
[3:09:34 PM ET] to walk
[3:09:35 PM ET] one meeting you know the usual thing sure fine okay that's great
[3:09:35 PM ET] away from
[3:09:36 PM ET] modern
[3:09:37 PM ET] but he wants to walk away from modern
[3:09:37 PM ET] monetary
[3:09:38 PM ET] analysis and the
[3:09:39 PM ET] foundation of
[3:09:39 PM ET] that.
[3:09:40 PM ET] A guy like
[3:09:40 PM ET] Michael
[3:09:41 PM ET] monetary analysis and the foundation of that
[3:09:41 PM ET] Ferroli,
[3:09:41 PM ET] at
[3:09:41 PM ET] J.P.
[3:09:42 PM ET] Morgan,
[3:09:42 PM ET] I don't
[3:09:42 PM ET] know
[3:09:42 PM ET] what
[3:09:42 PM ET] he
[3:09:43 PM ET] does
[3:09:44 PM ET] with
[3:09:44 PM ET] new
[3:09:44 PM ET] a guy like michael ferroli at jpmorgan i don't know what he does
[3:09:44 PM ET] monetary
[3:09:45 PM ET] medicine
[3:09:46 PM ET] and
[3:09:47 PM ET] protocol
[3:09:47 PM ET] from
[3:09:47 PM ET] the
[3:09:48 PM ET] 50s.
[3:09:48 PM ET] with new monetary medicine and protocol
[3:09:49 PM ET] I'm thinking about who might be
[3:09:49 PM ET] happy
[3:09:49 PM ET] with
[3:09:50 PM ET] this
[3:09:51 PM ET] decision.
[3:09:51 PM ET] If I'm
[3:09:51 PM ET] Dario and
[3:09:51 PM ET] I'm not
[3:09:52 PM ET] anthropic,
[3:09:52 PM ET] from the fifties i'm thinking about who might be happy with this decision if i'm dario
[3:09:52 PM ET] I'm
[3:09:52 PM ET] probably
[3:09:52 PM ET] pretty
[3:09:53 PM ET] happy with
[3:09:53 PM ET] this
[3:09:54 PM ET] decision and that
[3:09:54 PM ET] news
[3:09:55 PM ET] conference. I'd be pretty
[3:09:55 PM ET] thrilled with
[3:09:55 PM ET] how
[3:09:56 PM ET] that
[3:09:56 PM ET] anthropic i'm probably pretty happy with this decision and that news conference i'll be pretty thrilled with how that went
[3:09:56 PM ET] went.
[3:09:57 PM ET] from my
[3:09:57 PM ET] like the
[3:09:58 PM ET] I'm going
[3:09:58 PM ET] up in a few
[3:09:58 PM ET] weeks.
[3:09:59 PM ET] Yeah, I mean essentially if
[3:09:59 PM ET] you
[3:10:00 PM ET] have
[3:10:00 PM ET] someone
[3:10:00 PM ET] who
[3:10:00 PM ET] is
[3:10:00 PM ET] concerned about the
[3:10:01 PM ET] essentially got an ipo coming up in a few weeks yeah i mean essentially if you have someone who is
[3:10:02 PM ET] about
[3:10:02 PM ET] any kind
[3:10:02 PM ET] of
[3:10:03 PM ET] market
[3:10:03 PM ET] disruption
[3:10:03 PM ET] in credit.
[3:10:04 PM ET] spreads tied to
[3:10:04 PM ET] AI.
[3:10:05 PM ET] concerned about any kind of market disruption in credit spreads tied to ai
[3:10:06 PM ET] probably feeling pretty
[3:10:06 PM ET] good.
[3:10:06 PM ET] that
[3:10:07 PM ET] probably is a
[3:10:08 PM ET] positive.
[3:10:08 PM ET] Got pretty miserable,
[3:10:08 PM ET] JP
[3:10:09 PM ET] Morgan with the surrounding
[3:10:10 PM ET] table. Priya sat through
[3:10:10 PM ET] feeling pretty good that probably is a positive got pretty miserable at jpmorgan with us around the table priest
[3:10:11 PM ET] that. Priya well
[3:10:11 PM ET] through that priya well done
[3:10:11 PM ET] done.
[3:10:12 PM ET] It's got a
[3:10:12 PM ET] to see
[3:10:12 PM ET] good to see you
[3:10:12 PM ET] you.
[3:10:13 PM ET] That was
[3:10:13 PM ET] fine. It's a difficult
[3:10:13 PM ET] one, wasn't
[3:10:14 PM ET] it? What did you
[3:10:15 PM ET] learn?
[3:10:16 PM ET] You know, I think Jay
[3:10:17 PM ET] Wars was trying
[3:10:17 PM ET] that was fun it was a difficult one wasn't it what did you learn you know i think jay was
[3:10:17 PM ET] to
[3:10:18 PM ET] walk this
[3:10:18 PM ET] fine
[3:10:19 PM ET] line
[3:10:20 PM ET] of saying that
[3:10:20 PM ET] they're
[3:10:20 PM ET] we're
[3:10:21 PM ET] really committed to
[3:10:21 PM ET] was trying to walk this fine line of
[3:10:22 PM ET] inflation
[3:10:22 PM ET] and yet they didn't
[3:10:23 PM ET] hike.
[3:10:24 PM ET] I think he was trying
[3:10:24 PM ET] saying that they're very committed to inflation and yet they didn't hike
[3:10:25 PM ET] to
[3:10:25 PM ET] communicate this
[3:10:25 PM ET] hawkish
[3:10:27 PM ET] hold, but
[3:10:27 PM ET] it's
[3:10:27 PM ET] hard.
[3:10:28 PM ET] but I would take a step
[3:10:28 PM ET] i think he was trying to communicate this hawkish hold
[3:10:29 PM ET] back.
[3:10:29 PM ET] There's the
[3:10:29 PM ET] but it's hard but i would take a step back there's a policy
[3:10:30 PM ET] policy and there's a
[3:10:30 PM ET] then the
[3:10:31 PM ET] communication.
[3:10:32 PM ET] The policy, you saw
[3:10:32 PM ET] the market reaction,
[3:10:33 PM ET] right
[3:10:34 PM ET] after.
[3:10:34 PM ET] i don't
[3:10:34 PM ET] think the market was
[3:10:35 PM ET] and then there's the communication the policy you saw the market reaction right after
[3:10:35 PM ET] saying
[3:10:35 PM ET] that the Fed's behind the
[3:10:36 PM ET] curve on
[3:10:37 PM ET] inflation. They've hiked
[3:10:38 PM ET] they're likely to hike
[3:10:39 PM ET] don't think the market was saying that the fed's behind the curve on inflation they've hiked
[3:10:39 PM ET] some
[3:10:39 PM ET] more. I think the market
[3:10:40 PM ET] was
[3:10:40 PM ET] okay with
[3:10:41 PM ET] policy. What I was
[3:10:42 PM ET] hoping to get from
[3:10:43 PM ET] they're likely to hike some more i think the market was okay with policy
[3:10:43 PM ET] Chair
[3:10:43 PM ET] Wash, which we didn't really
[3:10:44 PM ET] get, was explain the
[3:10:46 PM ET] decision.
[3:10:46 PM ET] what i was hoping to get from chairwash which we didn't really get was explain the decision
[3:10:47 PM ET] He could have
[3:10:47 PM ET] talked about
[3:10:48 PM ET] inflation
[3:10:48 PM ET] breadth. He could have
[3:10:48 PM ET] said, We're
[3:10:48 PM ET] not
[3:10:49 PM ET] data point
[3:10:50 PM ET] dependent.
[3:10:50 PM ET] you know, the
[3:10:50 PM ET] he could have talked about inflation breadth he could have said we're not data point dependent
[3:10:50 PM ET] inflation
[3:10:51 PM ET] trend is
[3:10:51 PM ET] heading
[3:10:52 PM ET] lower.
[3:10:53 PM ET] Um
[3:10:53 PM ET] He
[3:10:53 PM ET] really
[3:10:53 PM ET] didn't
[3:10:53 PM ET] talk
[3:10:53 PM ET] about the day
[3:10:54 PM ET] data.
[3:10:54 PM ET] know the inflation trend is heading lower he he he really didn't talk about the data
[3:10:54 PM ET] So we didn't get
[3:10:55 PM ET] much
[3:10:55 PM ET] on the
[3:10:56 PM ET] decision.
[3:10:56 PM ET] I was
[3:10:56 PM ET] hoping
[3:10:56 PM ET] to
[3:10:57 PM ET] hear
[3:10:57 PM ET] something
[3:10:57 PM ET] more
[3:10:57 PM ET] on is
[3:10:58 PM ET] this
[3:10:58 PM ET] risk management.
[3:10:59 PM ET] so we didn't get much on the decision i was hoping to hear something more on is
[3:10:59 PM ET] removal of
[3:11:00 PM ET] the
[3:11:00 PM ET] risk management?
[3:11:01 PM ET] cuts or
[3:11:01 PM ET] is
[3:11:01 PM ET] this risk
[3:11:02 PM ET] management
[3:11:03 PM ET] risk management removal of the risk management cuts or is this risk management hikes
[3:11:03 PM ET] hikes? Or are
[3:11:03 PM ET] we
[3:11:04 PM ET] recalibrating
[3:11:04 PM ET] the
[3:11:05 PM ET] neutral
[3:11:06 PM ET] rate?
[3:11:06 PM ET] We didn't
[3:11:06 PM ET] really
[3:11:07 PM ET] get
[3:11:08 PM ET] that.
[3:11:08 PM ET] or are we recalibrating the neutral rate we didn't really get that
[3:11:08 PM ET] And then
[3:11:08 PM ET] something
[3:11:08 PM ET] on
[3:11:09 PM ET] financial
[3:11:10 PM ET] conditions.
[3:11:10 PM ET] I think we've got
[3:11:10 PM ET] a little
[3:11:10 PM ET] bit
[3:11:10 PM ET] on
[3:11:11 PM ET] that.
[3:11:11 PM ET] I
[3:11:12 PM ET] think the
[3:11:12 PM ET] Fed did
[3:11:12 PM ET] and then something on financial conditions i think we got a little bit on that i think
[3:11:12 PM ET] get a little
[3:11:12 PM ET] bit
[3:11:13 PM ET] spooked
[3:11:13 PM ET] with
[3:11:13 PM ET] the
[3:11:14 PM ET] move
[3:11:14 PM ET] in
[3:11:14 PM ET] and
[3:11:14 PM ET] interest
[3:11:15 PM ET] rates.
[3:11:15 PM ET] I mean, we talk
[3:11:16 PM ET] about
[3:11:16 PM ET] Halloween
[3:11:16 PM ET] the fed did get a little spooked with the move in interest rates i mean we talk about
[3:11:17 PM ET] costumes. My
[3:11:17 PM ET] halloween costumes
[3:11:18 PM ET] point
[3:11:18 PM ET] of a month
[3:11:19 PM ET] ago
[3:11:19 PM ET] was the
[3:11:20 PM ET] 10-year
[3:11:20 PM ET] should
[3:11:20 PM ET] be
[3:11:20 PM ET] the Halloween
[3:11:21 PM ET] costume.
[3:11:22 PM ET] My kids
[3:11:22 PM ET] refused to
[3:11:22 PM ET] my point of a month ago was the tenure should be the halloween
[3:11:22 PM ET] even
[3:11:23 PM ET] walk
[3:11:23 PM ET] with
[3:11:23 PM ET] me.
[3:11:24 PM ET] Now
[3:11:24 PM ET] it's
[3:11:24 PM ET] not
[3:11:24 PM ET] the
[3:11:25 PM ET] tenure,
[3:11:25 PM ET] it's
[3:11:25 PM ET] my
[3:11:25 PM ET] latest as
[3:11:25 PM ET] my kids refused to even walk with me now it's not the tenure it's my latest
[3:11:26 PM ET] is
[3:11:26 PM ET] AI.
[3:11:26 PM ET] Dr.
[3:11:27 PM ET] Jekyll and Mr.
[3:11:29 PM ET] Hyde point.
[3:11:29 PM ET] as ai doctor jekyll and mister hyde
[3:11:29 PM ET] but you
[3:11:30 PM ET] know, it's not the
[3:11:31 PM ET] Fed. So at least I think
[3:11:31 PM ET] today is
[3:11:32 PM ET] not like
[3:11:32 PM ET] July. I think
[3:11:33 PM ET] it wasn't a
[3:11:33 PM ET] complete
[3:11:34 PM ET] you know it's not the fed so at least i think today is not like july i think it wasn't
[3:11:34 PM ET] a complete miss
[3:11:34 PM ET] mis
[3:11:36 PM ET] He did leave a
[3:11:36 PM ET] lot
[3:11:37 PM ET] more
[3:11:37 PM ET] questions we're going to
[3:11:37 PM ET] have
[3:11:38 PM ET] listen to
[3:11:38 PM ET] every other
[3:11:39 PM ET] Fed
[3:11:39 PM ET] communication he did leave a lot more questions we're gonna have to listen
[3:11:40 PM ET] official, wait
[3:11:41 PM ET] for
[3:11:41 PM ET] meetings.
[3:11:42 PM ET] I personally like more
[3:11:43 PM ET] meetings
[3:11:43 PM ET] because I think the
[3:11:43 PM ET] every other fed official wait for meetings
[3:11:44 PM ET] decision speaks more
[3:11:45 PM ET] than what he's going to
[3:11:46 PM ET] tell
[3:11:46 PM ET] us at the press
[3:11:46 PM ET] i personally like more meetings because i think the decision speaks more than
[3:11:47 PM ET] conference. But we'll have
[3:11:48 PM ET] do it.
[3:11:49 PM ET] to...
[3:11:50 PM ET] not be too snarky. You want more of those
[3:11:50 PM ET] meetings?
[3:11:50 PM ET] he's gonna tell us at the press conference but we'll have pretend not to be too snarky do you want more of those meetings
[3:11:51 PM ET] So you
[3:11:52 PM ET] know.
[3:11:53 PM ET] the meetings you get it. The policy decision
[3:11:54 PM ET] was
[3:11:54 PM ET] useful.
[3:11:55 PM ET] The dots are useful.
[3:11:55 PM ET] so you know meetings you get it the policy decision was useful
[3:11:56 PM ET] We might go, you know, the
[3:11:57 PM ET] dots might go
[3:11:57 PM ET] away, but
[3:11:58 PM ET] the yes
[3:11:58 PM ET] his
[3:11:59 PM ET] communication, I
[3:11:59 PM ET] the dots are useful we might go you know the the dots might go away but the you
[3:11:59 PM ET] think,
[3:11:59 PM ET] did
[3:11:59 PM ET] not tell
[3:12:00 PM ET] us much
[3:12:00 PM ET] about
[3:12:00 PM ET] the
[3:12:00 PM ET] reaction from
[3:12:01 PM ET] function.
[3:12:02 PM ET] If you want to dress like the
[3:12:02 PM ET] tenure, I'll
[3:12:02 PM ET] walk with
[3:12:02 PM ET] yes his communication i think did not tell us much about the reaction function if you wanna dress like the ten year hour
[3:12:03 PM ET] you
[3:12:03 PM ET] because I
[3:12:03 PM ET] think
[3:12:04 PM ET] that
[3:12:04 PM ET] that's
[3:12:04 PM ET] there's actually
[3:12:05 PM ET] quite
[3:12:05 PM ET] scary for
[3:12:05 PM ET] a lot
[3:12:05 PM ET] of
[3:12:06 PM ET] different
[3:12:06 PM ET] officials right
[3:12:07 PM ET] now.
[3:12:07 PM ET] walk with you because i think that that's actually quite scary for a lot of different officials right now
[3:12:08 PM ET] What do you make of
[3:12:08 PM ET] this
[3:12:09 PM ET] commentary that you
[3:12:09 PM ET] he
[3:12:10 PM ET] made
[3:12:10 PM ET] about
[3:12:11 PM ET] what
[3:12:11 PM ET] happened in the
[3:12:12 PM ET] markets
[3:12:12 PM ET] what do you make of this commentary that he made about
[3:12:12 PM ET] that
[3:12:12 PM ET] financial
[3:12:13 PM ET] conditions
[3:12:13 PM ET] seem to have
[3:12:13 PM ET] tied
[3:12:14 PM ET] tightened and this sort
[3:12:15 PM ET] of
[3:12:15 PM ET] nod
[3:12:15 PM ET] to
[3:12:15 PM ET] what happened in markets that financial conditions seem to have tightened and
[3:12:16 PM ET] that as the
[3:12:16 PM ET] one
[3:12:16 PM ET] thing
[3:12:17 PM ET] that
[3:12:17 PM ET] could
[3:12:17 PM ET] have
[3:12:18 PM ET] justified
[3:12:18 PM ET] remaining on the
[3:12:19 PM ET] hold.
[3:12:20 PM ET] the sort of nod to that as the one thing that could have justified remaining on hold
[3:12:20 PM ET] Mm-hmm.
[3:12:20 PM ET] Right.
[3:12:20 PM ET] I think
[3:12:20 PM ET] so, monetary
[3:12:21 PM ET] policy
[3:12:21 PM ET] works in the
[3:12:22 PM ET] into
[3:12:22 PM ET] economy
[3:12:22 PM ET] through
[3:12:23 PM ET] financial
[3:12:23 PM ET] right i think so monetary policy works into the economy through financial conditions
[3:12:24 PM ET] conditions.
[3:12:24 PM ET] So the
[3:12:24 PM ET] fact
[3:12:24 PM ET] that
[3:12:24 PM ET] he
[3:12:25 PM ET] said
[3:12:25 PM ET] they
[3:12:25 PM ET] were
[3:12:26 PM ET] the
[3:12:26 PM ET] financial
[3:12:27 PM ET] conditions
[3:12:27 PM ET] have
[3:12:27 PM ET] tightened and that's
[3:12:28 PM ET] kind
[3:12:28 PM ET] of
[3:12:28 PM ET] what they
[3:12:29 PM ET] so the fact that he said they were the financial conditions have tightened and that's
[3:12:29 PM ET] expected.
[3:12:30 PM ET] I think it's
[3:12:30 PM ET] telling
[3:12:31 PM ET] you
[3:12:31 PM ET] that
[3:12:32 PM ET] that's how monetary
[3:12:32 PM ET] policy
[3:12:33 PM ET] works. So, all this
[3:12:33 PM ET] kind of what they expected i think it's telling you
[3:12:34 PM ET] these
[3:12:34 PM ET] idea that
[3:12:34 PM ET] the
[3:12:35 PM ET] AI
[3:12:35 PM ET] trade
[3:12:35 PM ET] is
[3:12:36 PM ET] not interest
[3:12:36 PM ET] that that's how monetary policy works so all this idea that in that the ai trade is not interesting
[3:12:37 PM ET] I think he's
[3:12:37 PM ET] pushing
[3:12:37 PM ET] back
[3:12:38 PM ET] against
[3:12:38 PM ET] it.
[3:12:39 PM ET] That's the area he
[3:12:39 PM ET] was a
[3:12:40 PM ET] little explicit
[3:12:41 PM ET] in.
[3:12:41 PM ET] ensitive i think he's pushing back against it he was that's the area he was a little explicit in
[3:12:41 PM ET] And so when we
[3:12:41 PM ET] talk
[3:12:42 PM ET] about he's buying
[3:12:43 PM ET] time
[3:12:43 PM ET] for
[3:12:43 PM ET] what
[3:12:44 PM ET] It's
[3:12:44 PM ET] not
[3:12:44 PM ET] just
[3:12:45 PM ET] the labor market and
[3:12:46 PM ET] inflation, it's going to be
[3:12:46 PM ET] so when we talk about he's buying time for what it's not just
[3:12:47 PM ET] financial
[3:12:48 PM ET] conditions if the
[3:12:49 PM ET] air
[3:12:49 PM ET] is coming out of the
[3:12:49 PM ET] the labor market and inflation it's going to be financial conditions
[3:12:50 PM ET] AI,
[3:12:50 PM ET] trade, well, interest
[3:12:51 PM ET] rates might come down, but
[3:12:52 PM ET] financial conditions
[3:12:53 PM ET] might
[3:12:53 PM ET] tighten, and then
[3:12:53 PM ET] if the air is coming out of the ai trade well interest rates
[3:12:54 PM ET] the
[3:12:54 PM ET] market's doing the
[3:12:55 PM ET] work for the Fed. I
[3:12:56 PM ET] don't think he wanted to
[3:12:56 PM ET] might come down but financial conditions might tighten and then the market's doing the work for the fed
[3:12:57 PM ET] see
[3:12:57 PM ET] say it because when he said
[3:12:58 PM ET] it,
[3:12:58 PM ET] in July,
[3:12:58 PM ET] i don't think he wanted to see it because when he said it in july
[3:12:59 PM ET] that
[3:12:59 PM ET] was a problem. It
[3:13:00 PM ET] looked
[3:13:00 PM ET] like the market might bully
[3:13:01 PM ET] the Fed.
[3:13:01 PM ET] was a problem it looked like the market might bully the fed
[3:13:02 PM ET] But I do think that
[3:13:03 PM ET] this Fed
[3:13:04 PM ET] chair looks and
[3:13:05 PM ET] it's not just chair
[3:13:06 PM ET] wash. I think there
[3:13:06 PM ET] i do think that this fed chair looks and it's not just chair wash
[3:13:07 PM ET] the
[3:13:07 PM ET] rest
[3:13:07 PM ET] of
[3:13:07 PM ET] Fed, I mean
[3:13:08 PM ET] we
[3:13:08 PM ET] heard from Williams
[3:13:09 PM ET] and
[3:13:10 PM ET] Jefferson, I
[3:13:10 PM ET] think
[3:13:10 PM ET] they
[3:13:10 PM ET] looked
[3:13:10 PM ET] to
[3:13:10 PM ET] at
[3:13:10 PM ET] the
[3:13:10 PM ET] market
[3:13:11 PM ET] and
[3:13:11 PM ET] i think the rest of the fed i mean we heard from williams and and jeff
[3:13:11 PM ET] said, This
[3:13:11 PM ET] is
[3:13:11 PM ET] doing
[3:13:12 PM ET] the
[3:13:12 PM ET] work, so we
[3:13:13 PM ET] can
[3:13:13 PM ET] actually
[3:13:14 PM ET] then
[3:13:14 PM ET] the
[3:13:14 PM ET] i think they looked at the market and said this is doing the work
[3:13:14 PM ET] urgency
[3:13:14 PM ET] goes down.
[3:13:15 PM ET] for
[3:13:15 PM ET] us
[3:13:15 PM ET] to
[3:13:16 PM ET] hide
[3:13:16 PM ET] it.
[3:13:17 PM ET] You talked about
[3:13:17 PM ET] so we can actually then the the urgency goes down for us to hype we talked about protocol
[3:13:18 PM ET] protocol, and he's written before
[3:13:18 PM ET] about
[3:13:18 PM ET] making sure
[3:13:20 PM ET] Martin
[3:13:20 PM ET] 1951 in
[3:13:20 PM ET] the United
[3:13:21 PM ET] and
[3:13:22 PM ET] Accord.
[3:13:22 PM ET] and he's written before about mcchesney martin nineteen fifty one in the accord
[3:13:22 PM ET] To me,
[3:13:22 PM ET] he's
[3:13:23 PM ET] almost
[3:13:24 PM ET] wistful to go
[3:13:24 PM ET] back the
[3:13:24 PM ET] to
[3:13:25 PM ET] another
[3:13:25 PM ET] time.
[3:13:26 PM ET] I felt like I was
[3:13:26 PM ET] to me he's almost wistful to go back to another time i felt like i was watching
[3:13:27 PM ET] watching
[3:13:27 PM ET] Toby
[3:13:28 PM ET] McGuire and Reese
[3:13:28 PM ET] Witherspoon
[3:13:29 PM ET] and
[3:13:29 PM ET] in
[3:13:29 PM ET] Pleasantville
[3:13:29 PM ET] were
[3:13:30 PM ET] We're
[3:13:30 PM ET] back to the
[3:13:31 PM ET] 50s, like
[3:13:31 PM ET] back
[3:13:32 PM ET] before
[3:13:32 PM ET] tobey maguire and reese witherspoon in pleasantville we're back to the fifties
[3:13:32 PM ET] Burns,
[3:13:33 PM ET] back before the
[3:13:34 PM ET] 60s,
[3:13:34 PM ET] back
[3:13:34 PM ET] to
[3:13:35 PM ET] a
[3:13:35 PM ET] simpler
[3:13:35 PM ET] like back before burns back before the sixties
[3:13:36 PM ET] time.
[3:13:37 PM ET] He's yearning to go
[3:13:37 PM ET] back
[3:13:38 PM ET] there.
[3:13:38 PM ET] How does
[3:13:39 PM ET] that
[3:13:39 PM ET] back to a simpler time he's yearning to go back there
[3:13:40 PM ET] dovetail with
[3:13:40 PM ET] a
[3:13:41 PM ET] cacophony of
[3:13:42 PM ET] responsibilities
[3:13:43 PM ET] we
[3:13:43 PM ET] have in
[3:13:43 PM ET] how does that dovetail with a cacophony
[3:13:44 PM ET] monetary
[3:13:45 PM ET] policy linked
[3:13:45 PM ET] into
[3:13:46 PM ET] fiscal
[3:13:46 PM ET] of responsibilities we have in monetary
[3:13:46 PM ET] policy linked into fiscal policy
[3:13:47 PM ET] policy.
[3:13:47 PM ET] It's very
[3:13:48 PM ET] hard.
[3:13:49 PM ET] Now, I see the point about going
[3:13:50 PM ET] back
[3:13:50 PM ET] because if you look at
[3:13:51 PM ET] big productivity
[3:13:51 PM ET] it's very hard now i see the point about going back because if you look at big
[3:13:52 PM ET] increases, we
[3:13:52 PM ET] might
[3:13:55 PM ET] have to-
[3:13:55 PM ET] We're not the same economy we were in the 50s.
[3:13:56 PM ET] Our news flow
[3:13:56 PM ET] productivity increases we might we're not the same economy we were in the fifties
[3:13:57 PM ET] alone. I mean, John
[3:13:57 PM ET] our news flow alone
[3:13:58 PM ET] has personally
[3:13:59 PM ET] moved British
[3:14:00 PM ET] pound at least six
[3:14:00 PM ET] mean john has personally moved british pound
[3:14:01 PM ET] times.
[3:14:02 PM ET] on the show. I
[3:14:02 PM ET] at least six times right on the show i mean
[3:14:03 PM ET] mean,
[3:14:03 PM ET] the speed of
[3:14:04 PM ET] news flow
[3:14:05 PM ET] the speed of news flow today
[3:14:05 PM ET] today
[3:14:06 PM ET] he's
[3:14:07 PM ET] not allowed to
[3:14:07 PM ET] go
[3:14:08 PM ET] back to that
[3:14:09 PM ET] wistful
[3:14:09 PM ET] he's he's not allowed to go back to that wistful thinking
[3:14:10 PM ET] thinking. I think which is where
[3:14:11 PM ET] I wish you would
[3:14:12 PM ET] we
[3:14:12 PM ET] could get a better sense
[3:14:13 PM ET] of
[3:14:13 PM ET] the reaction
[3:14:14 PM ET] function because then the market
[3:14:14 PM ET] i think which is where i wish you would we could get us better sense of the reaction
[3:14:15 PM ET] will
[3:14:15 PM ET] react to
[3:14:16 PM ET] data points and it
[3:14:17 PM ET] doesn't just have to be
[3:14:18 PM ET] inflation and the
[3:14:18 PM ET] function because then the market will react to data points
[3:14:18 PM ET] labor
[3:14:19 PM ET] market.
[3:14:19 PM ET] It could
[3:14:20 PM ET] be the
[3:14:20 PM ET] earnings
[3:14:20 PM ET] and it doesn't just have to be inflation and and the labor market
[3:14:20 PM ET] of
[3:14:21 PM ET] some, you
[3:14:21 PM ET] large
[3:14:22 PM ET] hyperscaler or it could
[3:14:22 PM ET] be to
[3:14:23 PM ET] the issue
[3:14:23 PM ET] it could be the earnings of some you know large
[3:14:23 PM ET] equity or do
[3:14:23 PM ET] debt.
[3:14:25 PM ET] But let the
[3:14:25 PM ET] market
[3:14:26 PM ET] react to
[3:14:26 PM ET] all
[3:14:26 PM ET] hyperscaler or it could be do they issue equity or debt i
[3:14:26 PM ET] this
[3:14:27 PM ET] information.
[3:14:28 PM ET] if we
[3:14:28 PM ET] have a
[3:14:28 PM ET] sense of
[3:14:28 PM ET] the
[3:14:29 PM ET] reaction
[3:14:29 PM ET] but let the market react to all this information if we have a sense of the reaction function
[3:14:29 PM ET] function, we are
[3:14:30 PM ET] getting a
[3:14:30 PM ET] better
[3:14:30 PM ET] sense
[3:14:31 PM ET] today
[3:14:31 PM ET] than we
[3:14:32 PM ET] were, I'd
[3:14:32 PM ET] say,
[3:14:32 PM ET] in
[3:14:33 PM ET] we are getting a better sense today than we were i'd say in july
[3:14:33 PM ET] July,
[3:14:34 PM ET] where is he
[3:14:34 PM ET] a
[3:14:35 PM ET] thing? I'll give you that.
[3:14:35 PM ET] It's
[3:14:36 PM ET] I'll give
[3:14:36 PM ET] you
[3:14:36 PM ET] a little bit of
[3:14:36 PM ET] and
[3:14:37 PM ET] a
[3:14:37 PM ET] drink.
[3:14:37 PM ET] piece of
[3:14:38 PM ET] where we see a soft spot on it's i'll give you which is in july seeing it
[3:14:38 PM ET] together and we're
[3:14:38 PM ET] realizing
[3:14:39 PM ET] there's
[3:14:39 PM ET] not
[3:14:39 PM ET] just
[3:14:39 PM ET] the
[3:14:40 PM ET] chair wash
[3:14:40 PM ET] reaction
[3:14:41 PM ET] function,
[3:14:41 PM ET] there's
[3:14:42 PM ET] every
[3:14:42 PM ET] other the
[3:14:42 PM ET] together and we're realizing there's not just the chair wash reaction function there's
[3:14:42 PM ET] 19
[3:14:43 PM ET] members reaction function
[3:14:44 PM ET] functions we need
[3:14:45 PM ET] to so
[3:14:46 PM ET] maybe AI.
[3:14:46 PM ET] can
[3:14:46 PM ET] help
[3:14:46 PM ET] every other of the nineteen members reaction function that we need to
[3:14:46 PM ET] us
[3:14:47 PM ET] get
[3:14:47 PM ET] something.
[3:14:48 PM ET] I got a question to fit in with
[3:14:49 PM ET] John
[3:14:50 PM ET] Farrell here.
[3:14:50 PM ET] John, you've stood on
[3:14:50 PM ET] the lawn of the
[3:14:50 PM ET] so maybe ai can help us get i got a question to fit in with john farrell here john you've
[3:14:51 PM ET] ECB. I talk
[3:14:52 PM ET] about
[3:14:52 PM ET] this
[3:14:52 PM ET] stuff. You've
[3:14:53 PM ET] actually done
[3:14:54 PM ET] it.
[3:14:54 PM ET] How does the bank?
[3:14:54 PM ET] stood on the lawn of the ecb i talk about this stuff you've actually done it
[3:14:55 PM ET] of
[3:14:56 PM ET] England,
[3:14:56 PM ET] the
[3:14:57 PM ET] ECB, how does it
[3:14:57 PM ET] do they
[3:14:58 PM ET] react to what I just
[3:14:59 PM ET] how does the bank of england the ecb how do they react
[3:14:59 PM ET] to what i just witnessed
[3:15:00 PM ET] witnessed?
[3:15:01 PM ET] The lack of
[3:15:01 PM ET] the lack of guidance
[3:15:02 PM ET] guidance?
[3:15:02 PM ET] The lack of
[3:15:03 PM ET] analysis.
[3:15:04 PM ET] some
[3:15:04 PM ET] people would
[3:15:04 PM ET] say the
[3:15:05 PM ET] NBA Happy Talk
[3:15:06 PM ET] Speak I just
[3:15:07 PM ET] the lack of analysis some people would say the nba happy talk speaker just
[3:15:08 PM ET] heard it without
[3:15:09 PM ET] criticizing too many
[3:15:10 PM ET] people. I think
[3:15:11 PM ET] people
[3:15:11 PM ET] have had experience of
[3:15:12 PM ET] that at the ECB for the last
[3:15:12 PM ET] heard and tom without criticizing too many people i think people have had
[3:15:13 PM ET] several
[3:15:13 PM ET] years.
[3:15:13 PM ET] experience of that at the ecb for the last several years
[3:15:14 PM ET] Okay. Same
[3:15:15 PM ET] situation.
[3:15:15 PM ET] okay same situation
[3:15:16 PM ET] There are some people in this
[3:15:17 PM ET] market who don't believe the
[3:15:17 PM ET] person
[3:15:18 PM ET] leading that
[3:15:18 PM ET] institution
[3:15:19 PM ET] was
[3:15:19 PM ET] cut out for that
[3:15:20 PM ET] job to
[3:15:20 PM ET] begin with and haven't
[3:15:20 PM ET] are some people in this market who don't believe the person leaving that institution was cut out for that job
[3:15:21 PM ET] received the kind of guidance they want
[3:15:22 PM ET] from
[3:15:22 PM ET] that
[3:15:22 PM ET] institution
[3:15:23 PM ET] either. So I think the
[3:15:24 PM ET] ECB might have a little
[3:15:24 PM ET] begin with and haven't received the kind of guidance they want from that institution either
[3:15:25 PM ET] bit in common with
[3:15:25 PM ET] i think the ecb might have a little bit
[3:15:26 PM ET] what
[3:15:26 PM ET] we've seen from the
[3:15:27 PM ET] Federal
[3:15:27 PM ET] Reserve under this
[3:15:29 PM ET] leadership.
[3:15:29 PM ET] The problem with this
[3:15:30 PM ET] leadership,
[3:15:30 PM ET] right now is that
[3:15:30 PM ET] common with what we've seen from the federal reserve under this leadership
[3:15:31 PM ET] he wants to be able to do
[3:15:31 PM ET] make a
[3:15:32 PM ET] change at the top of this
[3:15:33 PM ET] institution and to how
[3:15:33 PM ET] the problem with this leadership right now is that he wants to make a change at the top of this
[3:15:34 PM ET] they
[3:15:35 PM ET] But
[3:15:35 PM ET] he's trapped in
[3:15:35 PM ET] the
[3:15:36 PM ET] post-GFC
[3:15:36 PM ET] communication
[3:15:37 PM ET] institution into how they communicate but he's trapped in the post gfc
[3:15:38 PM ET] architecture.
[3:15:38 PM ET] So he
[3:15:38 PM ET] has
[3:15:38 PM ET] to
[3:15:38 PM ET] deliver a
[3:15:39 PM ET] news
[3:15:40 PM ET] communication architecture so he has to deliver a news conference
[3:15:43 PM ET] conference. News conference. Clearly, he
[3:15:43 PM ET] doesn't want to, clearly, he doesn't have much to
[3:15:47 PM ET] say. And I think he's trying to
[3:15:47 PM ET] news conference clearly he doesn't want to clearly he doesn't have much to say
[3:15:49 PM ET] be collegial,
[3:15:49 PM ET] and i think he's trying to be collegial
[3:15:49 PM ET] It's difficult to be that way when others aren't on board
[3:15:52 PM ET] with what you're trying to do. And the
[3:15:56 PM ET] speeches over the last few weeks from
[3:15:56 PM ET] difficult to be that way yeah when others aren't on board with what you're trying to do
[3:15:56 PM ET] Williams and Jefferson, I think, are probably the most
[3:15:57 PM ET] important
[3:15:58 PM ET] and the speeches over the last few weeks from williams and jefferson i think are probably the most
[3:15:58 PM ET] aside from
[3:15:58 PM ET] what
[3:15:58 PM ET] happened with
[3:15:59 PM ET] financial
[3:16:00 PM ET] aside from what happened with financial markets
[3:16:00 PM ET] markets.
[3:16:00 PM ET] It doesn't matter
[3:16:01 PM ET] what
[3:16:01 PM ET] the
[3:16:01 PM ET] Fed
[3:16:01 PM ET] share
[3:16:02 PM ET] says
[3:16:02 PM ET] about
[3:16:02 PM ET] anything in
[3:16:03 PM ET] this
[3:16:03 PM ET] news
[3:16:04 PM ET] it doesn't matter what the fed chair says about anything in this news conference
[3:16:04 PM ET] conference.
[3:16:05 PM ET] It doesn't matter that
[3:16:05 PM ET] he
[3:16:05 PM ET] doesn't provide
[3:16:07 PM ET] doesn't matter that he doesn't provide guidance
[3:16:07 PM ET] guidance because
[3:16:07 PM ET] the
[3:16:07 PM ET] only guidance you
[3:16:08 PM ET] need
[3:16:08 PM ET] is
[3:16:09 PM ET] from
[3:16:09 PM ET] the core of the
[3:16:09 PM ET] committee and
[3:16:10 PM ET] the core of the committee told
[3:16:11 PM ET] you precisely
[3:16:11 PM ET] what
[3:16:12 PM ET] would
[3:16:12 PM ET] happen at this
[3:16:12 PM ET] because the only guidance you need is from the core of the committee and the core of the committee told you
[3:16:13 PM ET] meeting.
[3:16:13 PM ET] precisely what would happen at this meeting
[3:16:13 PM ET] They
[3:16:13 PM ET] kept
[3:16:14 PM ET] rates unchanged.
[3:16:15 PM ET] The core of this
[3:16:16 PM ET] committee told you
[3:16:17 PM ET] precisely
[3:16:17 PM ET] they kept rates unchanged the core of this committee told you precisely what
[3:16:18 PM ET] what the change
[3:16:18 PM ET] chair ended up
[3:16:19 PM ET] saying, which is we have
[3:16:20 PM ET] time, we want to take
[3:16:20 PM ET] more
[3:16:21 PM ET] time to find
[3:16:21 PM ET] out and
[3:16:22 PM ET] get more information
[3:16:22 PM ET] the chair ended up saying which is we have time we want to take more time to find out and get more information
[3:16:22 PM ET] about
[3:16:23 PM ET] what's
[3:16:23 PM ET] happening
[3:16:24 PM ET] here. So, for a Fed
[3:16:25 PM ET] chair
[3:16:25 PM ET] that's trying to move away
[3:16:26 PM ET] from
[3:16:26 PM ET] the old
[3:16:27 PM ET] Fed, my conclusion
[3:16:27 PM ET] what's happening here so for a fed chair that's trying to move away from the old fed
[3:16:28 PM ET] watching this play
[3:16:29 PM ET] out this afternoon.
[3:16:30 PM ET] is that this new
[3:16:31 PM ET] Fed sounds a whole lot like
[3:16:32 PM ET] the old
[3:16:32 PM ET] my conclusion watching this play out this afternoon
[3:16:32 PM ET] is that this new fed sounds a whole lot like
[3:16:33 PM ET] Fed. They're talking
[3:16:34 PM ET] a
[3:16:34 PM ET] good game about
[3:16:35 PM ET] inflation. They
[3:16:36 PM ET] obviously
[3:16:36 PM ET] want to anchor inflation
[3:16:37 PM ET] expectations.
[3:16:37 PM ET] but
[3:16:37 PM ET] the old fed they're talking a good game about inflation they obviously want to anchor inflation
[3:16:38 PM ET] they're willing to tolerate a
[3:16:39 PM ET] above
[3:16:39 PM ET] buff target and
[3:16:40 PM ET] messy
[3:16:40 PM ET] prints like the one
[3:16:41 PM ET] we
[3:16:41 PM ET] just got because
[3:16:41 PM ET] expectations but they're willing to tolerate above target and messy prints like the one we just got
[3:16:42 PM ET] they're
[3:16:42 PM ET] not willing to
[3:16:43 PM ET] act. That's the only
[3:16:44 PM ET] conclusion you can
[3:16:45 PM ET] have. Colby
[3:16:45 PM ET] because they're not willing to act that's the only conclusion you can have
[3:16:46 PM ET] tried, used to work with
[3:16:47 PM ET] Colby, she's
[3:16:48 PM ET] colby tight we used to work with colby she's fantastic
[3:16:48 PM ET] fantastic. She's
[3:16:48 PM ET] It's the first
[3:16:49 PM ET] question
[3:16:49 PM ET] out of the
[3:16:50 PM ET] gate.
[3:16:50 PM ET] why don't
[3:16:50 PM ET] in your
[3:16:50 PM ET] you hiking
[3:16:51 PM ET] the first question out of the gate why aren't you hiking today
[3:16:51 PM ET] today? The
[3:16:52 PM ET] economy
[3:16:52 PM ET] is
[3:16:53 PM ET] strong. Why aren't
[3:16:53 PM ET] you
[3:16:53 PM ET] doing
[3:16:54 PM ET] anything?
[3:16:54 PM ET] That question was
[3:16:54 PM ET] asked
[3:16:54 PM ET] 50 days.
[3:16:54 PM ET] different
[3:16:55 PM ET] ways. He didn't
[3:16:55 PM ET] answer
[3:16:55 PM ET] it
[3:16:56 PM ET] the economy is strong why aren't you doing anything that question was asked fifty different ways he didn't answer it once
[3:16:57 PM ET] once.
[3:16:57 PM ET] And if they're not going to be able to do
[3:16:58 PM ET] make a
[3:16:58 PM ET] move,
[3:16:58 PM ET] after
[3:16:59 PM ET] the day,
[3:16:59 PM ET] data we
[3:16:59 PM ET] just
[3:17:00 PM ET] got.
[3:17:00 PM ET] and I'm
[3:17:00 PM ET] not
[3:17:01 PM ET] advocating for a move
[3:17:01 PM ET] from
[3:17:01 PM ET] the
[3:17:02 PM ET] institution by the
[3:17:02 PM ET] they're not gonna make a move after the data we just got and i'm not
[3:17:03 PM ET] way. That's not what
[3:17:03 PM ET] I'm doing
[3:17:04 PM ET] here.
[3:17:04 PM ET] I'm basing this
[3:17:04 PM ET] on
[3:17:04 PM ET] their
[3:17:04 PM ET] own
[3:17:05 PM ET] advocating for a move from the institution by the way that's not what i'm doing here i'm basing this on their own rhetoric
[3:17:05 PM ET] rhetoric.
[3:17:06 PM ET] There is a
[3:17:06 PM ET] massive
[3:17:07 PM ET] spread between
[3:17:07 PM ET] how
[3:17:08 PM ET] the
[3:17:08 PM ET] Fed chair is
[3:17:09 PM ET] there is a massive spread between how the fed chair is speaking
[3:17:09 PM ET] speaking and how the speaker is
[3:17:10 PM ET] what they're
[3:17:11 PM ET] doing.
[3:17:11 PM ET] and what they're doing
[3:17:11 PM ET] and this
[3:17:12 PM ET] just sounded
[3:17:12 PM ET] like
[3:17:12 PM ET] a
[3:17:13 PM ET] typical Fed
[3:17:13 PM ET] chair trying
[3:17:13 PM ET] to
[3:17:13 PM ET] wank a lot
[3:17:14 PM ET] inflation
[3:17:14 PM ET] expectations.
[3:17:15 PM ET] with
[3:17:15 PM ET] above
[3:17:15 PM ET] target
[3:17:16 PM ET] inflation and not
[3:17:16 PM ET] willing to
[3:17:16 PM ET] this just sounded like a typical fed chair trying to wank inflation
[3:17:16 PM ET] do
[3:17:17 PM ET] anything about
[3:17:18 PM ET] We're pretty within the
[3:17:18 PM ET] mix
[3:17:19 PM ET] at
[3:17:19 PM ET] Lisa, jump in here because you're not going to be able to do
[3:17:19 PM ET] expectations with above target inflation and not willing to do anything about it but pri within the mix
[3:17:20 PM ET] because you're reading
[3:17:20 PM ET] different
[3:17:21 PM ET] stuff than
[3:17:21 PM ET] I
[3:17:21 PM ET] lisa jump in here because you're reading different stuff than i am
[3:17:22 PM ET] am.
[3:17:22 PM ET] Within the
[3:17:23 PM ET] mix, is there any
[3:17:24 PM ET] talk
[3:17:24 PM ET] about where
[3:17:24 PM ET] these pressures
[3:17:25 PM ET] presidents in
[3:17:25 PM ET] these
[3:17:26 PM ET] within the mix is there any talk about where these presidents and these governors
[3:17:27 PM ET] governors
[3:17:27 PM ET] will
[3:17:27 PM ET] revolt
[3:17:28 PM ET] against this
[3:17:29 PM ET] chairman?
[3:17:29 PM ET] will revolt against this chairman
[3:17:29 PM ET] Is
[3:17:30 PM ET] that
[3:17:30 PM ET] disgust
[3:17:31 PM ET] or
[3:17:32 PM ET] analyzed in any
[3:17:32 PM ET] is that discussed or analyzed in any way
[3:17:33 PM ET] way? So, not
[3:17:34 PM ET] revolt, but I would say
[3:17:34 PM ET] we're paying
[3:17:35 PM ET] attention
[3:17:35 PM ET] to
[3:17:36 PM ET] every
[3:17:37 PM ET] dot and every
[3:17:37 PM ET] so not revolt but i would say we're paying attention to every dot
[3:17:38 PM ET] voter,
[3:17:39 PM ET] non-voter, because
[3:17:40 PM ET] that's
[3:17:40 PM ET] important. Now, this
[3:17:41 PM ET] is coming down to
[3:17:41 PM ET] and every voter nonvoter because that's important now this is coming down to
[3:17:42 PM ET] counting
[3:17:42 PM ET] votes, a little bit like
[3:17:43 PM ET] the Supreme
[3:17:44 PM ET] Court
[3:17:44 PM ET] where it's
[3:17:45 PM ET] not a
[3:17:46 PM ET] concern. And I will say, the Fed
[3:17:46 PM ET] counting votes like the supreme court where you know it's not a cons and i will say the
[3:17:47 PM ET] came into the
[3:17:48 PM ET] new chair
[3:17:49 PM ET] washers
[3:17:50 PM ET] regime
[3:17:51 PM ET] divided. So there was already this question
[3:17:52 PM ET] fed came into the new chair washers regime divided
[3:17:52 PM ET] of: is this a supply
[3:17:53 PM ET] shock?
[3:17:55 PM ET] Is this a demand? Is
[3:17:55 PM ET] it leaking into
[3:17:56 PM ET] demand? Is it just AI?
[3:17:56 PM ET] was already this question of is this a supply shock is this a dim is it leaking into
[3:17:58 PM ET] or is
[3:17:58 PM ET] it broadening out?
[3:17:59 PM ET] I think there are big questions
[3:18:00 PM ET] there.
[3:18:00 PM ET] demand is it just ai or is it broadening out i think there are big questions there
[3:18:01 PM ET] So we're going to be
[3:18:01 PM ET] listening
[3:18:02 PM ET] to really
[3:18:02 PM ET] every
[3:18:02 PM ET] Fed
[3:18:03 PM ET] official
[3:18:03 PM ET] getting
[3:18:03 PM ET] a
[3:18:04 PM ET] sense
[3:18:04 PM ET] so we're lit you know we're gonna be listening to really every fed official
[3:18:05 PM ET] of
[3:18:05 PM ET] you know, what do you
[3:18:05 PM ET] they
[3:18:06 PM ET] think, what do they
[3:18:06 PM ET] about
[3:18:06 PM ET] how
[3:18:06 PM ET] much the money
[3:18:07 PM ET] markets
[3:18:07 PM ET] doing
[3:18:07 PM ET] the
[3:18:08 PM ET] work
[3:18:08 PM ET] for
[3:18:08 PM ET] getting a sense of you know what do they think what do they think about how much the market
[3:18:08 PM ET] them, even if they're
[3:18:09 PM ET] not
[3:18:09 PM ET] explicitly
[3:18:10 PM ET] saying it.
[3:18:10 PM ET] how much
[3:18:10 PM ET] of
[3:18:10 PM ET] that
[3:18:11 PM ET] was behind
[3:18:11 PM ET] what
[3:18:12 PM ET] Williams
[3:18:12 PM ET] doing the work for them even if they're not explicitly saying it
[3:18:12 PM ET] and
[3:18:13 PM ET] Jefferson
[3:18:14 PM ET] said?
[3:18:14 PM ET] But I'll go
[3:18:14 PM ET] back
[3:18:14 PM ET] to
[3:18:15 PM ET] we
[3:18:15 PM ET] think this
[3:18:15 PM ET] how much of that was behind what williams and and jefferson said
[3:18:15 PM ET] is
[3:18:15 PM ET] still
[3:18:15 PM ET] a
[3:18:16 PM ET] supply
[3:18:16 PM ET] shock.
[3:18:17 PM ET] There were questions
[3:18:17 PM ET] on
[3:18:17 PM ET] whether they
[3:18:17 PM ET] should
[3:18:18 PM ET] have
[3:18:18 PM ET] hiked
[3:18:18 PM ET] in
[3:18:18 PM ET] but i'll go back to we think this is still a supply shock there were questions on whether they should have hiked and
[3:18:19 PM ET] September. If this
[3:18:19 PM ET] is
[3:18:19 PM ET] a
[3:18:20 PM ET] supply shock
[3:18:21 PM ET] normal
[3:18:21 PM ET] conventional
[3:18:22 PM ET] september if this is a supply shock normal conventions
[3:18:22 PM ET] economy is a very good
[3:18:22 PM ET] theory would say
[3:18:23 PM ET] look through
[3:18:25 PM ET] it.
[3:18:25 PM ET] I think this was
[3:18:25 PM ET] risk
[3:18:26 PM ET] management.
[3:18:27 PM ET] economic theory would say look through it mhmm i think this was risk
[3:18:27 PM ET] they're
[3:18:27 PM ET] are worried that
[3:18:27 PM ET] it'll
[3:18:28 PM ET] spread
[3:18:28 PM ET] through.
[3:18:29 PM ET] It's just not clear
[3:18:30 PM ET] from
[3:18:30 PM ET] chair
[3:18:30 PM ET] Wars or the
[3:18:30 PM ET] management they're worried that it'll spread through i it's
[3:18:31 PM ET] committee
[3:18:31 PM ET] just not clear from chair wars so the committee
[3:18:32 PM ET] broadly is
[3:18:33 PM ET] there. I think
[3:18:33 PM ET] that's where
[3:18:33 PM ET] Jefferson
[3:18:34 PM ET] and Williams and
[3:18:34 PM ET] I would
[3:18:35 PM ET] say, Waller are
[3:18:36 PM ET] there. So, just
[3:18:37 PM ET] broadly is there i think that's where jefferson and williams and i would say waller are there
[3:18:37 PM ET] watching, not just
[3:18:38 PM ET] what
[3:18:38 PM ET] they say about
[3:18:39 PM ET] the
[3:18:39 PM ET] next
[3:18:40 PM ET] meeting
[3:18:40 PM ET] and you know, it's the
[3:18:41 PM ET] totality of whether
[3:18:42 PM ET] so just watching not just what they say about the next meeting
[3:18:42 PM ET] they
[3:18:43 PM ET] hiked this
[3:18:43 PM ET] meeting or
[3:18:44 PM ET] not actually doesn't
[3:18:45 PM ET] matter unless if you're
[3:18:45 PM ET] and you know it's the totality of whether they hyped this meeting or not actually it doesn't matter unless if you're
[3:18:45 PM ET] trading
[3:18:46 PM ET] October Fed Front
[3:18:46 PM ET] Fund Futures, but it's the
[3:18:47 PM ET] totality of
[3:18:48 PM ET] hikes, we're still
[3:18:50 PM ET] pricing
[3:18:50 PM ET] in three
[3:18:50 PM ET] october fed fund futures but it's the totality of hikes
[3:18:51 PM ET] hikes, which is more
[3:18:52 PM ET] than the most hawkish
[3:18:53 PM ET] Fed official has
[3:18:53 PM ET] we're still pricing in three hikes which is more than the most
[3:18:54 PM ET] been
[3:18:54 PM ET] sent. Do you know why I'm so
[3:18:54 PM ET] hawkish fed official has been said do you know why i'm so upset
[3:18:55 PM ET] upset? Mike McKee didn't get to
[3:18:56 PM ET] speak at
[3:18:56 PM ET] the news
[3:18:57 PM ET] conference. What was that
[3:18:57 PM ET] about? Mike McKee
[3:18:58 PM ET] joined us
[3:18:59 PM ET] now
[3:18:59 PM ET] for more.
[3:19:00 PM ET] Mike, what happened in there? What
[3:19:00 PM ET] mckee didn't get to speak at the news conference what was that about mike mckee joins us now for more
[3:19:00 PM ET] mike what happened in there
[3:19:01 PM ET] happened to the
[3:19:02 PM ET] presser?
[3:19:02 PM ET] happened in the presser
[3:19:03 PM ET] Well, I didn't get
[3:19:04 PM ET] called on. That's one
[3:19:05 PM ET] thing that happened, and I don't
[3:19:06 PM ET] have any
[3:19:07 PM ET] explanation for
[3:19:07 PM ET] that other than
[3:19:07 PM ET] well i didn't get called on that's one thing that happened and i don't have any
[3:19:08 PM ET] they put us in the very
[3:19:09 PM ET] back
[3:19:09 PM ET] row.
[3:19:10 PM ET] I think, John, that you
[3:19:10 PM ET] said
[3:19:10 PM ET] explanation for that other than they put us in the very back row
[3:19:11 PM ET] it
[3:19:11 PM ET] best.
[3:19:12 PM ET] You've said it very, very
[3:19:12 PM ET] well
[3:19:12 PM ET] about
[3:19:13 PM ET] what's going
[3:19:13 PM ET] on
[3:19:14 PM ET] with
[3:19:14 PM ET] i think john that you said it best you've said it very very well about what's
[3:19:14 PM ET] Chairman
[3:19:15 PM ET] Warsh
[3:19:15 PM ET] and
[3:19:15 PM ET] this
[3:19:16 PM ET] fed he wants
[3:19:16 PM ET] to change the
[3:19:17 PM ET] communication
[3:19:18 PM ET] style, but he
[3:19:18 PM ET] going on with chairman walsh and this fed he wants to change the communication style
[3:19:18 PM ET] doesn't
[3:19:18 PM ET] know
[3:19:19 PM ET] how and he's
[3:19:20 PM ET] leaving
[3:19:20 PM ET] people
[3:19:20 PM ET] with
[3:19:20 PM ET] a
[3:19:21 PM ET] vague
[3:19:22 PM ET] impression
[3:19:22 PM ET] of what
[3:19:22 PM ET] but he doesn't know how and he's leaving people with a vague impression
[3:19:23 PM ET] the Fed
[3:19:23 PM ET] is
[3:19:24 PM ET] thinking.
[3:19:24 PM ET] and it's
[3:19:24 PM ET] not
[3:19:25 PM ET] helping
[3:19:25 PM ET] anybody on the
[3:19:26 PM ET] Wall
[3:19:26 PM ET] Street
[3:19:27 PM ET] figure
[3:19:27 PM ET] of what the fed is thinking and it's not helping anybody on wall street
[3:19:27 PM ET] out what to
[3:19:28 PM ET] do.
[3:19:29 PM ET] When you
[3:19:29 PM ET] listen
[3:19:29 PM ET] to what
[3:19:30 PM ET] he
[3:19:30 PM ET] said
[3:19:30 PM ET] today,
[3:19:31 PM ET] they won't be able to do
[3:19:31 PM ET] more
[3:19:31 PM ET] figure out what to do when you listen to what he said today they want more
[3:19:32 PM ET] time
[3:19:32 PM ET] to look out
[3:19:33 PM ET] the
[3:19:34 PM ET] window.
[3:19:34 PM ET] What are they going to
[3:19:34 PM ET] see out
[3:19:35 PM ET] the
[3:19:36 PM ET] window?
[3:19:36 PM ET] time to look out the window what are they gonna see out the window
[3:19:37 PM ET] There is
[3:19:37 PM ET] one more
[3:19:38 PM ET] CPI between this
[3:19:38 PM ET] meeting and the
[3:19:39 PM ET] December
[3:19:40 PM ET] meeting.
[3:19:41 PM ET] They get PCE
[3:19:41 PM ET] there is one more cpi between this meeting and the december meeting
[3:19:42 PM ET] tomorrow, they know what that
[3:19:42 PM ET] number
[3:19:43 PM ET] is
[3:19:44 PM ET] already. But that's the
[3:19:44 PM ET] only
[3:19:45 PM ET] inflation measure that
[3:19:45 PM ET] they get pce tomorrow they know what that number is already
[3:19:45 PM ET] one
[3:19:46 PM ET] CPU
[3:19:46 PM ET] CPI. So if
[3:19:47 PM ET] you're
[3:19:47 PM ET] worried about
[3:19:48 PM ET] inflation and you
[3:19:48 PM ET] get one more
[3:19:48 PM ET] but that's the only inflation measure that one cpi so
[3:19:49 PM ET] number and you're going to get a lot of
[3:19:49 PM ET] you know oil
[3:19:49 PM ET] prices
[3:19:49 PM ET] are going to
[3:19:50 PM ET] up
[3:19:50 PM ET] and
[3:19:51 PM ET] you know
[3:19:51 PM ET] that
[3:19:51 PM ET] worried about inflation and you get one more number and you know oil prices are going up and you know that
[3:19:52 PM ET] the
[3:19:52 PM ET] war is still going
[3:19:53 PM ET] on.
[3:19:54 PM ET] I don't think you're going to learn a whole
[3:19:55 PM ET] lot by looking out the
[3:19:56 PM ET] window.
[3:19:56 PM ET] the war is still going on i don't think you're gonna learn a whole lot by looking out the window
[3:19:57 PM ET] And so it leaves
[3:19:57 PM ET] the
[3:19:58 PM ET] open the
[3:19:59 PM ET] question
[3:19:59 PM ET] of
[3:20:00 PM ET] where did
[3:20:00 PM ET] is the
[3:20:01 PM ET] Fed think it needs
[3:20:01 PM ET] and so it leaves open the question of
[3:20:02 PM ET] to intervene and
[3:20:03 PM ET] why?
[3:20:04 PM ET] And that's a
[3:20:04 PM ET] where does the fed think it needs to intervene and why and that's
[3:20:05 PM ET] question
[3:20:05 PM ET] that he did not
[3:20:06 PM ET] answer good question
[3:20:07 PM ET] on
[3:20:07 PM ET] whether
[3:20:07 PM ET] a question that he did not answer good question on whether
[3:20:08 PM ET] we
[3:20:08 PM ET] we've migrated from
[3:20:08 PM ET] supply
[3:20:09 PM ET] shock
[3:20:09 PM ET] to demand shock.
[3:20:10 PM ET] If it's a demand shock,
[3:20:11 PM ET] and
[3:20:11 PM ET] certainly
[3:20:11 PM ET] he
[3:20:12 PM ET] we've migrated from supply shock to demand shock if it's a demand shock
[3:20:12 PM ET] was at
[3:20:13 PM ET] pains to say the
[3:20:14 PM ET] economy is really picking
[3:20:16 PM ET] up, then obviously
[3:20:16 PM ET] and certainly he was at pains to say the economy is really picking up
[3:20:17 PM ET] the
[3:20:17 PM ET] Fed
[3:20:18 PM ET] has more work to
[3:20:19 PM ET] do in a different
[3:20:20 PM ET] way. And we didn't
[3:20:21 PM ET] get anything on
[3:20:21 PM ET] then obviously the fed has more work to do in a in a different way and we didn't get
[3:20:22 PM ET] that right
[3:20:23 PM ET] now. One thing I would
[3:20:24 PM ET] add is: I've gotten
[3:20:24 PM ET] several
[3:20:25 PM ET] messages
[3:20:25 PM ET] anything on that right now one thing i would add is i've
[3:20:25 PM ET] from
[3:20:26 PM ET] people
[3:20:26 PM ET] on Wall
[3:20:26 PM ET] Street
[3:20:27 PM ET] about
[3:20:28 PM ET] this change
[3:20:28 PM ET] in
[3:20:28 PM ET] the
[3:20:28 PM ET] meeting
[3:20:29 PM ET] gotten several note messages from people on wall street about this change in the meeting frequency
[3:20:29 PM ET] frequency.
[3:20:30 PM ET] if it starts
[3:20:30 PM ET] next
[3:20:31 PM ET] fall.
[3:20:31 PM ET] what meeting are
[3:20:32 PM ET] they going to
[3:20:33 PM ET] skip?
[3:20:33 PM ET] It would seem
[3:20:33 PM ET] logical
[3:20:33 PM ET] to
[3:20:34 PM ET] skip
[3:20:34 PM ET] the
[3:20:34 PM ET] if it starts next fall what meeting are they gonna
[3:20:34 PM ET] October
[3:20:35 PM ET] meeting
[3:20:35 PM ET] because
[3:20:35 PM ET] you've
[3:20:35 PM ET] got
[3:20:36 PM ET] CEPs.
[3:20:37 PM ET] if they still have to be able to get the
[3:20:37 PM ET] skip it would seem logical to skip the october meeting because you've got ceps
[3:20:37 PM ET] still have
[3:20:38 PM ET] those.
[3:20:38 PM ET] in
[3:20:38 PM ET] September
[3:20:39 PM ET] and
[3:20:40 PM ET] December.
[3:20:41 PM ET] but how does
[3:20:41 PM ET] the
[3:20:41 PM ET] if they still have those in september and december but
[3:20:41 PM ET] market
[3:20:42 PM ET] know? How do they know
[3:20:42 PM ET] to do
[3:20:43 PM ET] how price
[3:20:43 PM ET] futures
[3:20:44 PM ET] at this
[3:20:44 PM ET] point if
[3:20:45 PM ET] they don't know
[3:20:45 PM ET] when
[3:20:45 PM ET] one of
[3:20:45 PM ET] how does the market know how do they know how to price futures at this point if they
[3:20:46 PM ET] those
[3:20:46 PM ET] meetings will
[3:20:47 PM ET] won't produce
[3:20:48 PM ET] anything.
[3:20:48 PM ET] So a lot of
[3:20:49 PM ET] questions come
[3:20:49 PM ET] out of the
[3:20:49 PM ET] don't know when one of those meetings won't produce anything so a lot of
[3:20:50 PM ET] this that he
[3:20:50 PM ET] didn't
[3:20:51 PM ET] even come close
[3:20:51 PM ET] to
[3:20:52 PM ET] answering.
[3:20:52 PM ET] questions come out of this that he didn't even come close to answering
[3:20:53 PM ET] Very few
[3:20:53 PM ET] answers. Might
[3:20:54 PM ET] McKee, one
[3:20:54 PM ET] wonderful
[3:20:54 PM ET] job as
[3:20:55 PM ET] always down in
[3:20:56 PM ET] Washington. Mike, appreciate it,
[3:20:57 PM ET] Jeff
[3:20:57 PM ET] Rosenberger
[3:20:57 PM ET] Black
[3:20:57 PM ET] very few answers mike mckee wonderful job as always down in washington mike appreciate it's
[3:20:57 PM ET] rock
[3:20:58 PM ET] joined us
[3:20:58 PM ET] now
[3:20:58 PM ET] for
[3:20:59 PM ET] more. Jeff, you sat
[3:20:59 PM ET] through
[3:21:00 PM ET] that
[3:21:01 PM ET] too.
[3:21:01 PM ET] for someone in this
[3:21:01 PM ET] rosenberg of blackrock joined us now for more jeff you sat through that too
[3:21:02 PM ET] market. What was
[3:21:03 PM ET] material to
[3:21:03 PM ET] someone in this market what was material to you
[3:21:04 PM ET] you?
[3:21:05 PM ET] Yeah,
[3:21:06 PM ET] Jonathan.
[3:21:07 PM ET] listening to the
[3:21:07 PM ET] the
[3:21:08 PM ET] conversation, I'll highlight three
[3:21:09 PM ET] things in kind of
[3:21:09 PM ET] yeah jonathan listening to the the
[3:21:09 PM ET] reverse
[3:21:10 PM ET] order.
[3:21:10 PM ET] I think we've talked
[3:21:11 PM ET] about a lot of
[3:21:12 PM ET] them.
[3:21:12 PM ET] conversation i'll highlight three things in kind of reverse order i think we've talked about a lot of them you know
[3:21:12 PM ET] You know, the
[3:21:13 PM ET] answer
[3:21:13 PM ET] for why
[3:21:13 PM ET] they
[3:21:14 PM ET] didn't do
[3:21:15 PM ET] anything
[3:21:15 PM ET] this
[3:21:16 PM ET] meeting.
[3:21:16 PM ET] you got the question a couple
[3:21:17 PM ET] times and he kind of handed
[3:21:17 PM ET] the answer for why they did anything this meeting
[3:21:18 PM ET] answered it. They're waiting
[3:21:19 PM ET] for
[3:21:19 PM ET] more data.
[3:21:20 PM ET] Fine.
[3:21:21 PM ET] you got the question a couple times and he kinda answered it they're waiting for more data fine
[3:21:21 PM ET] A lot less
[3:21:22 PM ET] discussion
[3:21:22 PM ET] on oil than I would
[3:21:23 PM ET] have
[3:21:23 PM ET] thought
[3:21:23 PM ET] of for the
[3:21:24 PM ET] second point, but he did
[3:21:25 PM ET] say oil's
[3:21:26 PM ET] a lot less discussion on oil than i would have thought of for the second point but he did say
[3:21:26 PM ET] up and we need to take
[3:21:27 PM ET] note
[3:21:27 PM ET] of that. And I think
[3:21:28 PM ET] that's also to
[3:21:29 PM ET] Mike
[3:21:29 PM ET] McKee's
[3:21:30 PM ET] comments a minute
[3:21:31 PM ET] oil's up and we need to take note of that and i think that
[3:21:31 PM ET] ago, that's also what they're going to be
[3:21:32 PM ET] looking
[3:21:34 PM ET] for. They talked a lot about
[3:21:34 PM ET] also to mike mckee's comments a minute ago that's also what they're gonna be looking for
[3:21:35 PM ET] it in prior
[3:21:36 PM ET] meetings
[3:21:36 PM ET] again, less this
[3:21:37 PM ET] time. But the third point I'd
[3:21:38 PM ET] highlight is: I
[3:21:38 PM ET] they talked a lot about it in prior meetings again less this time but the third point i'd highlight
[3:21:38 PM ET] think
[3:21:38 PM ET] the
[3:21:39 PM ET] most important
[3:21:39 PM ET] thing
[3:21:40 PM ET] that
[3:21:40 PM ET] we took
[3:21:40 PM ET] out of
[3:21:41 PM ET] this
[3:21:42 PM ET] discussion
[3:21:42 PM ET] and
[3:21:42 PM ET] the
[3:21:42 PM ET] i think the most important thing that we took out of this
[3:21:43 PM ET] QA
[3:21:43 PM ET] was
[3:21:43 PM ET] a
[3:21:44 PM ET] lot
[3:21:44 PM ET] more
[3:21:45 PM ET] discussion on
[3:21:45 PM ET] financial
[3:21:46 PM ET] discussion and the q and a was a lot more discussion
[3:21:46 PM ET] conditions.
[3:21:46 PM ET] He kind of opened
[3:21:47 PM ET] with
[3:21:47 PM ET] the financial
[3:21:48 PM ET] conditions, unwilling to do
[3:21:48 PM ET] and
[3:21:49 PM ET] unable
[3:21:49 PM ET] on financial conditions he kind of opened with the financial conditions unwilling and unable
[3:21:49 PM ET] to
[3:21:50 PM ET] call
[3:21:50 PM ET] them
[3:21:50 PM ET] tight, but
[3:21:51 PM ET] noticing
[3:21:51 PM ET] the
[3:21:51 PM ET] tightness of
[3:21:52 PM ET] and
[3:21:52 PM ET] linking
[3:21:53 PM ET] it
[3:21:53 PM ET] back
[3:21:53 PM ET] to
[3:21:54 PM ET] AI.
[3:21:54 PM ET] with
[3:21:54 PM ET] this
[3:21:54 PM ET] to call them tight but noticing the tightening and linking it back
[3:21:54 PM ET] really
[3:21:55 PM ET] important
[3:21:56 PM ET] marker that AI.
[3:21:57 PM ET] interest
[3:21:58 PM ET] rates
[3:21:58 PM ET] matter to AI.
[3:21:58 PM ET] to ai with this really important marker that
[3:22:00 PM ET] He talked about the
[3:22:01 PM ET] rollover in the
[3:22:01 PM ET] ai interest rates matter to ai he talked about
[3:22:02 PM ET] correlation
[3:22:02 PM ET] between oil.
[3:22:03 PM ET] and
[3:22:03 PM ET] interest
[3:22:04 PM ET] rates. He
[3:22:05 PM ET] never sort of finished the
[3:22:05 PM ET] the roll over in the correlation between oil and interest rates he never
[3:22:06 PM ET] conversation because
[3:22:06 PM ET] he
[3:22:07 PM ET] said
[3:22:07 PM ET] he's not
[3:22:08 PM ET] a Wall
[3:22:08 PM ET] Street
[3:22:10 PM ET] sort of finished the conversation because he said he's not a a wall street newsletter but
[3:22:10 PM ET] newsletter,
[3:22:10 PM ET] but you know, if he were to
[3:22:11 PM ET] finish it,
[3:22:12 PM ET] what happened
[3:22:13 PM ET] was
[3:22:13 PM ET] that the
[3:22:14 PM ET] rates stopped
[3:22:15 PM ET] you know if he were to finish it the what happened was that the rates
[3:22:15 PM ET] looking
[3:22:15 PM ET] at oil.
[3:22:16 PM ET] and
[3:22:17 PM ET] they started looking at
[3:22:17 PM ET] the
[3:22:18 PM ET] AI
[3:22:19 PM ET] trade, and he paid attention to
[3:22:19 PM ET] stopped looking at oil and they started looking at
[3:22:20 PM ET] that. So we're going
[3:22:20 PM ET] to pay
[3:22:21 PM ET] more attention to
[3:22:22 PM ET] that. And I think that's probably the
[3:22:22 PM ET] the ai trade and he paid attention to that so we're gonna pay more attention to that i think
[3:22:23 PM ET] most
[3:22:24 PM ET] important
[3:22:24 PM ET] takeaway and a little bit
[3:22:25 PM ET] of the steepening of the
[3:22:26 PM ET] curve that you see
[3:22:27 PM ET] there in the market. I
[3:22:27 PM ET] probably the most important takeaway and a little bit of the steepening of the curve that you see there
[3:22:28 PM ET] think that's a little bit of
[3:22:29 PM ET] a dovish hint
[3:22:30 PM ET] because they're going to be
[3:22:31 PM ET] really focused
[3:22:31 PM ET] in the market i think that's a little bit of a dovish hint because
[3:22:31 PM ET] on
[3:22:32 PM ET] whether they're
[3:22:32 PM ET] overly
[3:22:33 PM ET] tightening.
[3:22:33 PM ET] financial
[3:22:34 PM ET] If there
[3:22:34 PM ET] they're gonna be really focused on whether they're overly tightening financial
[3:22:35 PM ET] is
[3:22:35 PM ET] indeed
[3:22:35 PM ET] this
[3:22:36 PM ET] much
[3:22:36 PM ET] of
[3:22:36 PM ET] a
[3:22:37 PM ET] reaction
[3:22:37 PM ET] to
[3:22:37 PM ET] an increase in
[3:22:37 PM ET] interest
[3:22:38 PM ET] conditions if there is indeed this much of a reaction
[3:22:39 PM ET] rates.
[3:22:40 PM ET] to the AI
[3:22:41 PM ET] pricing and financial
[3:22:42 PM ET] markets.
[3:22:42 PM ET] an increase in interest rates to to the ai pricing in financial markets
[3:22:43 PM ET] So, Jeff, is the Fed put a
[3:22:44 PM ET] alive
[3:22:44 PM ET] and well right
[3:22:45 PM ET] now for risk
[3:22:46 PM ET] assets?
[3:22:46 PM ET] so jeff is the fed put alive and well right now for risk assets
[3:22:48 PM ET] Oh, our favorite
[3:22:50 PM ET] topic.
[3:22:50 PM ET] oh our favorite topic
[3:22:51 PM ET] You know, I don't know if I
[3:22:51 PM ET] could
[3:22:52 PM ET] say it's a lot of
[3:22:53 PM ET] and
[3:22:53 PM ET] well. I mean
[3:22:54 PM ET] think what we can do
[3:22:54 PM ET] you know i i don't know if i could say it's it's alive and well i mean i i
[3:22:54 PM ET] got to
[3:22:55 PM ET] hint
[3:22:55 PM ET] of and what
[3:22:55 PM ET] I
[3:22:55 PM ET] was
[3:22:56 PM ET] just
[3:22:57 PM ET] answering
[3:22:57 PM ET] and a little bit
[3:22:57 PM ET] of
[3:22:57 PM ET] what you
[3:22:58 PM ET] see in
[3:22:58 PM ET] this
[3:22:58 PM ET] the
[3:22:59 PM ET] steepening
[3:22:59 PM ET] think what we got a hint of and what i was just answering and
[3:22:59 PM ET] is
[3:22:59 PM ET] he's
[3:23:00 PM ET] sensitive to
[3:23:01 PM ET] it.
[3:23:01 PM ET] He's
[3:23:01 PM ET] sensitive
[3:23:02 PM ET] a little bit what you see in the steepening is he's sensitive to it he's sensitive to
[3:23:02 PM ET] to
[3:23:02 PM ET] looking at
[3:23:03 PM ET] AI.
[3:23:04 PM ET] You know, we also got
[3:23:04 PM ET] another piece of
[3:23:05 PM ET] information that we
[3:23:06 PM ET] hadn't
[3:23:06 PM ET] maybe
[3:23:06 PM ET] heard
[3:23:06 PM ET] before
[3:23:07 PM ET] when
[3:23:07 PM ET] he
[3:23:07 PM ET] looking at ai you know we also got another piece of information that we hadn't maybe
[3:23:07 PM ET] answered the
[3:23:07 PM ET] Korean
[3:23:08 PM ET] reporter.
[3:23:09 PM ET] you know,
[3:23:09 PM ET] with, I'm
[3:23:10 PM ET] really
[3:23:10 PM ET] more.
[3:23:11 PM ET] focused on your
[3:23:12 PM ET] heard before when he answered the korean reporter you know with
[3:23:12 PM ET] markets than
[3:23:12 PM ET] you might
[3:23:12 PM ET] may
[3:23:13 PM ET] imagine
[3:23:13 PM ET] me to
[3:23:14 PM ET] be.
[3:23:15 PM ET] i'm really more focused on your markets than you may imagine me to be
[3:23:15 PM ET] That's really
[3:23:15 PM ET] important
[3:23:16 PM ET] because he
[3:23:17 PM ET] understands
[3:23:17 PM ET] just how
[3:23:18 PM ET] important the AI.
[3:23:19 PM ET] that's really important because he understands just how important
[3:23:20 PM ET] driver
[3:23:20 PM ET] is
[3:23:20 PM ET] to
[3:23:22 PM ET] grow, even though he's
[3:23:23 PM ET] talking
[3:23:23 PM ET] about it
[3:23:24 PM ET] broadening
[3:23:24 PM ET] ai driver is to growth even though he's talking about it broadening out
[3:23:25 PM ET] out, this is really
[3:23:26 PM ET] an important
[3:23:27 PM ET] piece. So if you see
[3:23:28 PM ET] some
[3:23:28 PM ET] wobbles
[3:23:29 PM ET] there, you know, I
[3:23:29 PM ET] this is really an an an important piece so if you see some wobbles there
[3:23:30 PM ET] think
[3:23:30 PM ET] you know i think
[3:23:31 PM ET] maybe
[3:23:31 PM ET] not the Fed
[3:23:32 PM ET] put
[3:23:32 PM ET] in.
[3:23:33 PM ET] in that it
[3:23:34 PM ET] can
[3:23:34 PM ET] work,
[3:23:34 PM ET] but
[3:23:35 PM ET] certainly what we
[3:23:35 PM ET] you know maybe not the fed put in that it can work but
[3:23:36 PM ET] saw this
[3:23:37 PM ET] month
[3:23:37 PM ET] was the
[3:23:38 PM ET] market sort of
[3:23:39 PM ET] sniffing out
[3:23:39 PM ET] certainly what we saw this month was the market
[3:23:40 PM ET] that
[3:23:40 PM ET] AI is a
[3:23:41 PM ET] macro event as much
[3:23:42 PM ET] it
[3:23:42 PM ET] is a micro
[3:23:43 PM ET] event.
[3:23:43 PM ET] sort of sniffing out that ai is a macro event as much as it is a micro event
[3:23:44 PM ET] And if there is
[3:23:44 PM ET] a
[3:23:44 PM ET] and if there is a
[3:23:45 PM ET] undermining of
[3:23:46 PM ET] it,
[3:23:46 PM ET] it's going to be a very important
[3:23:46 PM ET] good
[3:23:47 PM ET] a
[3:23:48 PM ET] macro
[3:23:48 PM ET] event that
[3:23:49 PM ET] is
[3:23:49 PM ET] undermining of it it it's going to be a macro event that is
[3:23:50 PM ET] primarily
[3:23:51 PM ET] disinflationary.
[3:23:52 PM ET] It's supporting
[3:23:52 PM ET] growth
[3:23:52 PM ET] on
[3:23:53 PM ET] the
[3:23:54 PM ET] consumption
[3:23:54 PM ET] primarily disinflationary right it's supporting growth on the
[3:23:55 PM ET] side.
[3:23:55 PM ET] it's supporting it on the investment
[3:23:56 PM ET] side.
[3:23:57 PM ET] He made
[3:23:57 PM ET] that point, so he's well
[3:23:58 PM ET] consumption side it's supporting it on the investment side
[3:23:58 PM ET] aware
[3:23:58 PM ET] of it.
[3:23:59 PM ET] So that's where you
[3:24:00 PM ET] get
[3:24:00 PM ET] the
[3:24:01 PM ET] interest
[3:24:01 PM ET] he made that point so he's well aware of it so that
[3:24:01 PM ET] rate
[3:24:02 PM ET] sensitivity, and it's
[3:24:02 PM ET] really a
[3:24:03 PM ET] validation
[3:24:03 PM ET] of what we
[3:24:03 PM ET] saw in the
[3:24:04 PM ET] last couple of
[3:24:04 PM ET] where you get the the interest rate sensitivity and it's really a validation that we saw in the last
[3:24:04 PM ET] years.
[3:24:05 PM ET] weeks.
[3:24:07 PM ET] You
[3:24:08 PM ET] were at
[3:24:08 PM ET] Carnegie
[3:24:09 PM ET] Mellon.
[3:24:09 PM ET] couple of years and jeff rosenberg for all of us in the game you were at carnegie mellon you had the
[3:24:09 PM ET] you had the
[3:24:09 PM ET] privilege
[3:24:10 PM ET] of
[3:24:10 PM ET] Alan
[3:24:11 PM ET] Meltzer.
[3:24:11 PM ET] privilege of alan meltzer
[3:24:11 PM ET] his
[3:24:12 PM ET] 1400-page
[3:24:13 PM ET] history
[3:24:13 PM ET] of the
[3:24:13 PM ET] Federal
[3:24:14 PM ET] his fourteen hundred page history of the federal reserve
[3:24:14 PM ET] Reserve.
[3:24:15 PM ET] What
[3:24:15 PM ET] would
[3:24:15 PM ET] Alan
[3:24:16 PM ET] Meltzer
[3:24:16 PM ET] think
[3:24:17 PM ET] of what we
[3:24:18 PM ET] observed this
[3:24:18 PM ET] afternoon?
[3:24:19 PM ET] what would alan meltzer think of what we observed
[3:24:19 PM ET] this afternoon
[3:24:22 PM ET] Well, you know, it's
[3:24:22 PM ET] a
[3:24:23 PM ET] it's
[3:24:23 PM ET] someone
[3:24:24 PM ET] who said
[3:24:24 PM ET] it
[3:24:24 PM ET] well you know it's a it's
[3:24:24 PM ET] earlier. I think it
[3:24:25 PM ET] was
[3:24:25 PM ET] Mike
[3:24:25 PM ET] McKee
[3:24:26 PM ET] about how
[3:24:26 PM ET] he he wants
[3:24:27 PM ET] to
[3:24:27 PM ET] change
[3:24:27 PM ET] someone said it earlier i think it was mike mckee about how he he wants to
[3:24:28 PM ET] the
[3:24:29 PM ET] Fed.
[3:24:29 PM ET] but
[3:24:29 PM ET] he's
[3:24:30 PM ET] locked into
[3:24:30 PM ET] the
[3:24:31 PM ET] old
[3:24:32 PM ET] communication. I would say
[3:24:32 PM ET] change the fed but he's locked into the old
[3:24:33 PM ET] he's locked in, but
[3:24:34 PM ET] he's
[3:24:34 PM ET] also trying to
[3:24:35 PM ET] change the
[3:24:36 PM ET] communications as much as he
[3:24:36 PM ET] communication i i would say he's locked in but he's also trying to change
[3:24:37 PM ET] can.
[3:24:38 PM ET] We're seeing that the changes
[3:24:39 PM ET] in the press
[3:24:40 PM ET] conference. You only get
[3:24:40 PM ET] the communications as much as he can we're seeing the the changes in
[3:24:40 PM ET] one
[3:24:41 PM ET] question.
[3:24:42 PM ET] He picks which
[3:24:42 PM ET] one if
[3:24:42 PM ET] you
[3:24:43 PM ET] ask
[3:24:44 PM ET] two. Shortening
[3:24:44 PM ET] the press conference you only get one question he picks which one if you ask two
[3:24:44 PM ET] the
[3:24:45 PM ET] it
[3:24:45 PM ET] from about an
[3:24:46 PM ET] hour to about 30
[3:24:47 PM ET] minutes.
[3:24:48 PM ET] The statement being
[3:24:48 PM ET] shortening the it from about an hour to about thirty minutes
[3:24:49 PM ET] revised. Meltzer would see
[3:24:50 PM ET] that in
[3:24:50 PM ET] the context of the
[3:24:51 PM ET] history of the Fed
[3:24:52 PM ET] as, yes, trying to
[3:24:52 PM ET] the statement being revised meltzer would see that in the context of the history of the fed as
[3:24:53 PM ET] go back to the
[3:24:54 PM ET] earlier
[3:24:54 PM ET] interaction you
[3:24:55 PM ET] had
[3:24:55 PM ET] with
[3:24:55 PM ET] Priya
[3:24:56 PM ET] about, you
[3:24:56 PM ET] know,
[3:24:56 PM ET] can
[3:24:56 PM ET] go
[3:24:56 PM ET] back to
[3:24:56 PM ET] yes trying to go back so the earlier interaction you had with priya about you know can you go back
[3:24:57 PM ET] this
[3:24:57 PM ET] South
[3:24:57 PM ET] Halcyon
[3:24:57 PM ET] days?
[3:24:57 PM ET] of
[3:24:58 PM ET] The thing I would
[3:24:58 PM ET] add to
[3:24:58 PM ET] that
[3:24:59 PM ET] conversation
[3:24:59 PM ET] is
[3:24:59 PM ET] the
[3:24:59 PM ET] big
[3:25:00 PM ET] change
[3:25:00 PM ET] is
[3:25:02 PM ET] the role of
[3:25:02 PM ET] this halcyon days the thing i would add to that conversation is the big change is the role of
[3:25:03 PM ET] financial
[3:25:04 PM ET] conditions
[3:25:04 PM ET] and
[3:25:05 PM ET] consumption because consumption
[3:25:06 PM ET] is so
[3:25:07 PM ET] powered
[3:25:07 PM ET] by the wealth
[3:25:07 PM ET] financial conditions and consumption because consumption is so
[3:25:08 PM ET] effect. That
[3:25:08 PM ET] linkage, you
[3:25:09 PM ET] didn't have in the
[3:25:10 PM ET] Halcyon days. It was
[3:25:10 PM ET] much
[3:25:10 PM ET] more
[3:25:10 PM ET] powered by the wealth effect that linkage you didn't have
[3:25:12 PM ET] manufacturing, much
[3:25:12 PM ET] higher
[3:25:12 PM ET] savings
[3:25:13 PM ET] rate,
[3:25:13 PM ET] much
[3:25:13 PM ET] less
[3:25:13 PM ET] in the halcyon days it was much more manufacturing much
[3:25:14 PM ET] consumption out of the
[3:25:15 PM ET] debt.
[3:25:16 PM ET] financed
[3:25:16 PM ET] means
[3:25:16 PM ET] so
[3:25:17 PM ET] higher savings rate much less consumption out of debt financed
[3:25:17 PM ET] much
[3:25:17 PM ET] less
[3:25:17 PM ET] interest
[3:25:18 PM ET] rates
[3:25:18 PM ET] rate
[3:25:18 PM ET] sensitivity and
[3:25:19 PM ET] financial
[3:25:19 PM ET] conditions
[3:25:20 PM ET] sensitivity.
[3:25:21 PM ET] means so much less interest rate sensitivity and financial condition sensitivity so that
[3:25:21 PM ET] So that aspect
[3:25:21 PM ET] and
[3:25:21 PM ET] that's what
[3:25:22 PM ET] we
[3:25:22 PM ET] heard, the
[3:25:23 PM ET] transmission
[3:25:23 PM ET] mechanism
[3:25:24 PM ET] is through
[3:25:24 PM ET] financial
[3:25:25 PM ET] conditions.
[3:25:25 PM ET] aspect and that's what we heard the transmission mechanism
[3:25:25 PM ET] That's the
[3:25:26 PM ET] primary
[3:25:27 PM ET] way in
[3:25:27 PM ET] which the
[3:25:28 PM ET] Fed's policy
[3:25:28 PM ET] is through financial conditions that's the primary way
[3:25:29 PM ET] setting
[3:25:29 PM ET] affects the
[3:25:30 PM ET] economy.
[3:25:31 PM ET] So I think we learned a
[3:25:32 PM ET] lot
[3:25:32 PM ET] in which the fed's policy setting affects the economy
[3:25:32 PM ET] about that, even
[3:25:33 PM ET] though not
[3:25:33 PM ET] much was
[3:25:35 PM ET] changing to
[3:25:35 PM ET] so i think we learned a lot about that even though you know not much was was
[3:25:35 PM ET] Jonathan's
[3:25:36 PM ET] you know
[3:25:36 PM ET] comments
[3:25:37 PM ET] earlier
[3:25:38 PM ET] inside
[3:25:38 PM ET] some
[3:25:38 PM ET] of this
[3:25:39 PM ET] conversation, I think we
[3:25:39 PM ET] changing to jonathan's you know comments earlier inside some of this
[3:25:39 PM ET] did
[3:25:40 PM ET] hear
[3:25:40 PM ET] some
[3:25:41 PM ET] interesting
[3:25:41 PM ET] data
[3:25:42 PM ET] points.
[3:25:43 PM ET] Jeff Diplomatic
[3:25:43 PM ET] appreciate it. Thank you,
[3:25:43 PM ET] conversation i think we did hear some interesting data points
[3:25:44 PM ET] sir. Jeffrey
[3:25:44 PM ET] Rosenberg
[3:25:45 PM ET] there of Black
[3:25:47 PM ET] Rock. The old Fed, what do they
[3:25:47 PM ET] jeff diplomatic appreciate it thank you sir jeffrey rosenberg there of blackrock the old fed what do they do
[3:25:48 PM ET] The mum you get a
[3:25:48 PM ET] crack, the
[3:25:48 PM ET] back of
[3:25:49 PM ET] away.
[3:25:50 PM ET] We had a
[3:25:50 PM ET] moment you get a crack they back away we had a crack
[3:25:51 PM ET] crack. We had a bit of a crack in the credit
[3:25:52 PM ET] market over the
[3:25:52 PM ET] last few
[3:25:53 PM ET] weeks. This Fed has backed
[3:25:54 PM ET] away.
[3:25:55 PM ET] Yeah, the old Fed
[3:25:55 PM ET] a bit of a crack in the credit market over the last few weeks this fed has backed away
[3:25:56 PM ET] is sitting
[3:25:57 PM ET] there looking at its dot
[3:25:58 PM ET] plot. The new Fed is looking out the
[3:25:59 PM ET] window.
[3:25:59 PM ET] yeah the old fed is sitting there looking at its top
[3:26:00 PM ET] And I think I'm going to do some
[3:26:00 PM ET] more looking out the window
[3:26:01 PM ET] too.
[3:26:02 PM ET] I think half a
[3:26:02 PM ET] of Wall
[3:26:02 PM ET] plot the new fed's looking out the window and i think i'm gonna do some more looking out the window too think half of wall street
[3:26:03 PM ET] Street had given up and started looking out the
[3:26:04 PM ET] outside of the weather
[3:26:05 PM ET] brand.
[3:26:05 PM ET] I think we're all looking at the
[3:26:06 PM ET] weather at
[3:26:06 PM ET] had given up and started looking outside of the weather brown i think we're all looking at the weather at
[3:26:07 PM ET] Corweave at the other
[3:26:07 PM ET] doing
[3:26:07 PM ET] do
[3:26:08 PM ET] door. Thank
[3:26:08 PM ET] you.
[3:26:08 PM ET] Thanks for being
[3:26:09 PM ET] here. Priam
[3:26:09 PM ET] Mr.
[3:26:09 PM ET] Mitra
[3:26:09 PM ET] for
[3:26:10 PM ET] priya it's good to see you thank you thanks for being here priya and misra there
[3:26:10 PM ET] of
[3:26:10 PM ET] JP
[3:26:11 PM ET] Morgan. Come on
[3:26:11 PM ET] up
[3:26:12 PM ET] tomorrow on
[3:26:12 PM ET] Blue
[3:26:12 PM ET] Blacks
[3:26:12 PM ET] Surveillance
[3:26:13 PM ET] on
[3:26:14 PM ET] Bloomberg TV. We'll catch
[3:26:15 PM ET] you every
[3:26:15 PM ET] up with Libby Cantrella
[3:26:15 PM ET] of jpmorgan coming up tomorrow on bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg tv we'll catch
[3:26:16 PM ET] the former St. Louis Fed
[3:26:17 PM ET] president Jim
[3:26:18 PM ET] Bullard,
[3:26:18 PM ET] Mike Ferroli of
[3:26:19 PM ET] J.P. Morgan, Gagi
[3:26:19 PM ET] with libby cantrell of pimco the former st louis fed president jim bullard mike varoli
[3:26:20 PM ET] Chandry
[3:26:20 PM ET] of BlackRock from New York
[3:26:21 PM ET] City this afternoon.
[3:26:21 PM ET] Good
[3:26:21 PM ET] afternoon.
[3:26:22 PM ET] of jpmorgan of blackrock from new york city this afternoon good afternoon this
[3:26:23 PM ET] This
[3:26:23 PM ET] was Black
[3:26:23 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:26:24 PM ET] was bloomberg surveillance
[3:26:25 PM ET] Surveillance.
[3:26:30 PM ET] Markets
[3:26:30 PM ET] headlines, and the
[3:26:31 PM ET] breaking
[3:26:32 PM ET] news
[3:26:32 PM ET] 24
[3:26:32 PM ET] hours
[3:26:32 PM ET] a day.
[3:26:32 PM ET] markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hour
[3:26:33 PM ET] At
[3:26:34 PM ET] Bloomberg.com.
[3:26:35 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:26:36 PM ET] Television.
[3:26:36 PM ET] and the Bloomberg
[3:26:37 PM ET] Business
[3:26:37 PM ET] App.
[3:26:38 PM ET] a day at bloomberg dot com bloomberg television and the bloomberg business
[3:26:38 PM ET] This is a
[3:26:38 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:26:39 PM ET] Business
[3:26:40 PM ET] Slash.
[3:26:41 PM ET] It's
[3:26:41 PM ET] 326 on
[3:26:42 PM ET] Wall
[3:26:42 PM ET] app this is a bloomberg business slash it's three twenty six on wall
[3:26:42 PM ET] Street. We do check out the
[3:26:43 PM ET] markets all day.
[3:26:44 PM ET] long
[3:26:44 PM ET] here at
[3:26:45 PM ET] Bloomberg Fed
[3:26:46 PM ET] chair,
[3:26:46 PM ET] Kevin
[3:26:47 PM ET] Warsh, you heard
[3:26:47 PM ET] street we do check markets all day long here at bloomberg
[3:26:47 PM ET] him
[3:26:47 PM ET] live right
[3:26:48 PM ET] here
[3:26:48 PM ET] on
[3:26:49 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:26:49 PM ET] Fed
[3:26:50 PM ET] Officials
[3:26:50 PM ET] Today
[3:26:50 PM ET] leaving rates
[3:26:51 PM ET] fed chair kevin walsh you heard him live right here on bloomberg
[3:26:51 PM ET] unchanged.
[3:26:53 PM ET] They also
[3:26:54 PM ET] reiterated
[3:26:54 PM ET] their commitment to
[3:26:54 PM ET] fed officials today leaving rates unchanged they also reiterate
[3:26:54 PM ET] containing the
[3:26:55 PM ET] inflation
[3:26:56 PM ET] without
[3:26:56 PM ET] offering a
[3:26:56 PM ET] clear
[3:26:57 PM ET] signal
[3:26:57 PM ET] that
[3:26:58 PM ET] they
[3:26:58 PM ET] reiterated their commitment to containing inflation without offering a clear signal
[3:26:58 PM ET] might
[3:26:59 PM ET] raise
[3:26:59 PM ET] rates that
[3:26:59 PM ET] their
[3:27:00 PM ET] next
[3:27:00 PM ET] meeting
[3:27:00 PM ET] in
[3:27:02 PM ET] December.
[3:27:02 PM ET] Right now we got the two-year four
[3:27:02 PM ET] that they might raise rates at their next meeting in
[3:27:04 PM ET] 4.70%
[3:27:05 PM ET] 10-year
[3:27:06 PM ET] right now we got the two year four point seven o percent ten year
[3:27:07 PM ET] 5.03%. Further out the
[3:27:08 PM ET] 30-year
[3:27:10 PM ET] 5.36%. Here's Fed
[3:27:10 PM ET] five point o three percent further out the thirty year
[3:27:11 PM ET] Chair Kevin Warsh at
[3:27:12 PM ET] the news
[3:27:13 PM ET] conference
[3:27:13 PM ET] talking about
[3:27:13 PM ET] five point three six percent here's fed chair kevin warsh
[3:27:14 PM ET] overall financial
[3:27:16 PM ET] conditions.
[3:27:16 PM ET] at the news conference talking about overall financial conditions and that's
[3:27:17 PM ET] Domestic spending has been
[3:27:18 PM ET] resilient.
[3:27:19 PM ET] Productivity growth has
[3:27:19 PM ET] is
[3:27:21 PM ET] strong.
[3:27:21 PM ET] in capital
[3:27:21 PM ET] domestic spending has been resilient productivity growth is strong
[3:27:22 PM ET] investment
[3:27:23 PM ET] robust.
[3:27:24 PM ET] Job
[3:27:24 PM ET] gains
[3:27:24 PM ET] have
[3:27:24 PM ET] kept
[3:27:24 PM ET] and capital investment robust job
[3:27:25 PM ET] pace
[3:27:25 PM ET] with
[3:27:25 PM ET] the
[3:27:27 PM ET] workforce and the unemployment
[3:27:28 PM ET] rate has
[3:27:29 PM ET] changed
[3:27:29 PM ET] have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment
[3:27:30 PM ET] little.
[3:27:30 PM ET] but
[3:27:31 PM ET] inflation
[3:27:32 PM ET] remains
[3:27:32 PM ET] rate has changed little but inflation
[3:27:33 PM ET] elevated. And the
[3:27:33 PM ET] federal
[3:27:34 PM ET] Open Market
[3:27:35 PM ET] Committee
[3:27:35 PM ET] today voting
[3:27:36 PM ET] remains elevated and the federal
[3:27:36 PM ET] 10 to 2
[3:27:37 PM ET] to
[3:27:37 PM ET] hold
[3:27:37 PM ET] its
[3:27:38 PM ET] benchmark
[3:27:38 PM ET] Fed
[3:27:39 PM ET] funds
[3:27:39 PM ET] market committee today voting ten to two to hold its
[3:27:39 PM ET] rate in
[3:27:39 PM ET] a
[3:27:39 PM ET] range of
[3:27:41 PM ET] 3.75
[3:27:42 PM ET] to
[3:27:42 PM ET] 4%.
[3:27:42 PM ET] benchmark fed funds rate in a range of three point
[3:27:43 PM ET] Governor Lisa
[3:27:44 PM ET] Cook and
[3:27:44 PM ET] Cleveland
[3:27:45 PM ET] Federal
[3:27:45 PM ET] President.
[3:27:45 PM ET] behind
[3:27:46 PM ET] Hammock
[3:27:46 PM ET] seven five to four percent governor lisa cook and cleveland fed president beth
[3:27:47 PM ET] dissenting.
[3:27:47 PM ET] preferring
[3:27:47 PM ET] to
[3:27:48 PM ET] raise
[3:27:48 PM ET] rates
[3:27:48 PM ET] by
[3:27:49 PM ET] a
[3:27:50 PM ET] quarter
[3:27:50 PM ET] percentage
[3:27:50 PM ET] hammock dissenting preferring to raise rates by a quarter percent
[3:27:51 PM ET] point.
[3:27:52 PM ET] Well, coming up in
[3:27:52 PM ET] just about
[3:27:52 PM ET] 33
[3:27:53 PM ET] minutes after
[3:27:53 PM ET] the
[3:27:54 PM ET] closing bell, we've
[3:27:54 PM ET] got
[3:27:55 PM ET] earnings today
[3:27:55 PM ET] point well coming up in just about thirty three minutes after the closing bell we've got
[3:27:55 PM ET] from
[3:27:56 PM ET] both
[3:27:56 PM ET] alphabet
[3:27:57 PM ET] and
[3:27:57 PM ET] also
[3:27:58 PM ET] Microsoft
[3:27:58 PM ET] Amazon
[3:27:59 PM ET] tomorrow.
[3:27:59 PM ET] earnings today from both alphabet and also microsoft amazon tomorrow
[3:28:00 PM ET] Alphabet
[3:28:00 PM ET] shares the
[3:28:00 PM ET] ahead of
[3:28:01 PM ET] earnings.
[3:28:01 PM ET] They are up
[3:28:02 PM ET] now by
[3:28:03 PM ET] 1.2%.
[3:28:04 PM ET] Microsoft ahead of
[3:28:04 PM ET] alphabet shares ahead of earnings they are up now by one point two percent microsoft
[3:28:04 PM ET] earnings
[3:28:05 PM ET] after
[3:28:05 PM ET] the
[3:28:05 PM ET] bell down
[3:28:06 PM ET] now by
[3:28:06 PM ET] about
[3:28:06 PM ET] five
[3:28:07 PM ET] tenths of
[3:28:07 PM ET] one
[3:28:08 PM ET] percent amazon
[3:28:09 PM ET] meanwhile is
[3:28:09 PM ET] ahead of earnings after the bell down now by about five tenths of one percent amazon meanwhile
[3:28:10 PM ET] pushing higher by
[3:28:13 PM ET] about faith. Scoop on this. You've been reporting about an
[3:28:13 PM ET] activist investor coming up and
[3:28:13 PM ET] pushing higher by about great scoop on this you've been reporting about an activist
[3:28:16 PM ET] trying to shake things up. What's the latest?
[3:28:19 PM ET] We've been hearing that there was going to be an activist at some
[3:28:19 PM ET] point. The question was: who? There is a convergence of
[3:28:19 PM ET] coming up and trying to shake things up what's the latest we've been hearing that there was gonna
[3:28:22 PM ET] technology and national security. United States is a
[3:28:22 PM ET] be an activist at some point the question was who there is a convergence of
[3:28:24 PM ET] bad.
[3:28:25 PM ET] Fixed right now with the
[3:28:25 PM ET] S P up 5 to
[3:28:26 PM ET] 77
[3:28:27 PM ET] technology and national security united states is a big fixed right now with the s and p up five to seventy seven
[3:28:27 PM ET] up
[3:28:28 PM ET] one-tenth of one
[3:28:29 PM ET] percent. Dow
[3:28:30 PM ET] Industrials up today by 1%
[3:28:31 PM ET] one
[3:28:31 PM ET] tenth of one
[3:28:31 PM ET] twenty seven up one tenth of one percent dow industrial
[3:28:32 PM ET] percent.
[3:28:33 PM ET] NASDAQ
[3:28:33 PM ET] composite
[3:28:34 PM ET] index
[3:28:34 PM ET] right
[3:28:34 PM ET] now down
[3:28:35 PM ET] is up today by one tenth of one percent nasdaq composite
[3:28:36 PM ET] 24. That is a
[3:28:36 PM ET] drop of
[3:28:36 PM ET] just
[3:28:37 PM ET] about
[3:28:37 PM ET] one
[3:28:37 PM ET] of
[3:28:38 PM ET] one
[3:28:38 PM ET] index right now down twenty four that is a drop of just about one
[3:28:38 PM ET] 1%.
[3:28:40 PM ET] I'm Charlie
[3:28:41 PM ET] Pellett. That is a
[3:28:42 PM ET] Bloomberg Business
[3:28:43 PM ET] tenth of one percent i'm charlie pellet that is a bloomberg
[3:28:44 PM ET] Flash.
[3:28:45 PM ET] This is
[3:28:46 PM ET] Bloomberg Business Week Day.
[3:28:46 PM ET] business flash this is bloomberg
[3:28:47 PM ET] Daily.
[3:28:48 PM ET] reporting
[3:28:48 PM ET] from the
[3:28:48 PM ET] magazine
[3:28:48 PM ET] that
[3:28:49 PM ET] helps
[3:28:49 PM ET] global
[3:28:50 PM ET] leaders stay
[3:28:50 PM ET] businessweek daily reporting from the magazine
[3:28:51 PM ET] ahead.
[3:28:51 PM ET] With
[3:28:51 PM ET] insight on the
[3:28:52 PM ET] people, companies, and the
[3:28:53 PM ET] that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people
[3:28:54 PM ET] and trends
[3:28:54 PM ET] shaping
[3:28:54 PM ET] today's
[3:28:55 PM ET] complex
[3:28:56 PM ET] economy.
[3:28:56 PM ET] Plus,
[3:28:57 PM ET] global
[3:28:57 PM ET] companies and trends shaping today's complex economy
[3:28:57 PM ET] business,
[3:28:58 PM ET] finance,
[3:28:58 PM ET] and
[3:28:59 PM ET] tech
[3:28:59 PM ET] news as it
[3:29:00 PM ET] happens.
[3:29:00 PM ET] plus global business finance and tech news as it happens bloom
[3:29:01 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:29:01 PM ET] Business
[3:29:01 PM ET] Week
[3:29:02 PM ET] Daily
[3:29:02 PM ET] with
[3:29:02 PM ET] Carol
[3:29:03 PM ET] Masser
[3:29:03 PM ET] and
[3:29:04 PM ET] Tim
[3:29:05 PM ET] Stennevek
[3:29:05 PM ET] live
[3:29:05 PM ET] business week daily with carol masser and tim stenebeck live
[3:29:05 PM ET] on
[3:29:06 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:29:07 PM ET] Radio.
[3:29:08 PM ET] television and
[3:29:08 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:29:10 PM ET] Originals.
[3:29:10 PM ET] on bloomberg radio television and bloomberg
[3:29:13 PM ET] and a very good
[3:29:13 PM ET] afternoon.
[3:29:14 PM ET] originals in a very
[3:29:14 PM ET] everybody. Yes and
[3:29:15 PM ET] indeed.
[3:29:15 PM ET] Welcome
[3:29:15 PM ET] to
[3:29:16 PM ET] Bloomberg Business
[3:29:16 PM ET] Week,
[3:29:17 PM ET] Daily. Carol
[3:29:18 PM ET] Masser,
[3:29:18 PM ET] Tim Stenovek we
[3:29:18 PM ET] good afternoon everybody yes indeed welcome to bloomberg business week daily carol masser tim stanovic
[3:29:19 PM ET] are not
[3:29:19 PM ET] in
[3:29:19 PM ET] New
[3:29:20 PM ET] York
[3:29:20 PM ET] City.
[3:29:21 PM ET] No, but
[3:29:21 PM ET] we
[3:29:21 PM ET] are in New
[3:29:22 PM ET] Boston,
[3:29:24 PM ET] we are not in new york city no but
[3:29:24 PM ET] Massachusetts. It is Schwab Impact
[3:29:26 PM ET] 2026. We've
[3:29:27 PM ET] we are in boston massachusetts it is schwab impact twenty twenty six
[3:29:27 PM ET] been coming to this event for
[3:29:29 PM ET] years.
[3:29:29 PM ET] We're in
[3:29:30 PM ET] were Philadelphia. We were
[3:29:30 PM ET] in San
[3:29:31 PM ET] Francisco. We were
[3:29:32 PM ET] in Denver. We
[3:29:32 PM ET] we've been coming to this event for years we're in philadelphia
[3:29:33 PM ET] were, and now we
[3:29:33 PM ET] are
[3:29:34 PM ET] in Boston in
[3:29:35 PM ET] 2026.
[3:29:35 PM ET] we were in san francisco we were in denver we were and now we are in boston
[3:29:36 PM ET] We are. It is the
[3:29:37 PM ET] 36th impact
[3:29:38 PM ET] gathering. It's all about
[3:29:39 PM ET] the RIA
[3:29:39 PM ET] twenty twenty six we are it is the thirty sixth impact gathering it's all about the
[3:29:40 PM ET] registered investment
[3:29:41 PM ET] advisors, the
[3:29:42 PM ET] community,
[3:29:42 PM ET] the support for that
[3:29:43 PM ET] community.
[3:29:43 PM ET] ria registered investment advisers the community the support for that community
[3:29:44 PM ET] and I have to
[3:29:44 PM ET] say, I was thinking
[3:29:44 PM ET] about, you
[3:29:45 PM ET] know, last
[3:29:45 PM ET] year, we were
[3:29:45 PM ET] talking
[3:29:46 PM ET] about
[3:29:46 PM ET] different
[3:29:47 PM ET] things.
[3:29:48 PM ET] There is a
[3:29:48 PM ET] i have to say i was thinking about last year we were talking about different things there
[3:29:48 PM ET] lot to talk
[3:29:48 PM ET] get
[3:29:50 PM ET] and catch up with from the
[3:29:51 PM ET] Schwab
[3:29:52 PM ET] team. I feel like whether it's AI,
[3:29:53 PM ET] whether
[3:29:53 PM ET] is a lot to get and catch up with from the schwab team i feel like whether it's ai
[3:29:54 PM ET] it's geopolitical.
[3:29:55 PM ET] concerns, we've
[3:29:56 PM ET] got
[3:29:56 PM ET] elections just
[3:29:57 PM ET] around the
[3:29:57 PM ET] corner, so there's a
[3:29:58 PM ET] lot to get to.
[3:29:58 PM ET] whether it's geopolitical concerns we've got elections just around the corner so there's a
[3:29:59 PM ET] Yeah, the three days
[3:29:59 PM ET] that
[3:29:59 PM ET] at
[3:30:00 PM ET] this
[3:30:00 PM ET] event,
[3:30:01 PM ET] it's
[3:30:01 PM ET] just
[3:30:01 PM ET] packed
[3:30:01 PM ET] with
[3:30:02 PM ET] to get to yeah the three days at this event it's just packed with activities and
[3:30:02 PM ET] activities and
[3:30:02 PM ET] with
[3:30:03 PM ET] events.
[3:30:03 PM ET] More than
[3:30:04 PM ET] 6,000
[3:30:04 PM ET] people
[3:30:05 PM ET] here.
[3:30:05 PM ET] events more than six thousand people here
[3:30:05 PM ET] We're going
[3:30:06 PM ET] to
[3:30:06 PM ET] be
[3:30:06 PM ET] covering it
[3:30:07 PM ET] all.
[3:30:08 PM ET] And a big part of
[3:30:08 PM ET] that backdrop
[3:30:09 PM ET] Carol, is
[3:30:10 PM ET] not
[3:30:10 PM ET] just
[3:30:10 PM ET] what we
[3:30:10 PM ET] heard
[3:30:10 PM ET] we're gonna be covering it all yes and a big part of that backdrop carol
[3:30:11 PM ET] from
[3:30:11 PM ET] the
[3:30:11 PM ET] Fed
[3:30:12 PM ET] chairman in
[3:30:12 PM ET] the
[3:30:12 PM ET] inflationary
[3:30:13 PM ET] environment, but
[3:30:13 PM ET] is not just what we heard from the fed chairman in the inflationary environment
[3:30:14 PM ET] also what
[3:30:14 PM ET] he
[3:30:14 PM ET] said about
[3:30:15 PM ET] technology.
[3:30:16 PM ET] especially
[3:30:16 PM ET] when
[3:30:16 PM ET] it comes to the
[3:30:17 PM ET] AI.
[3:30:17 PM ET] but also what he said about technology especially when it comes to ai and
[3:30:18 PM ET] and that
[3:30:18 PM ET] being
[3:30:18 PM ET] a lot of
[3:30:19 PM ET] layer
[3:30:20 PM ET] of technology in
[3:30:20 PM ET] the
[3:30:20 PM ET] economy.
[3:30:21 PM ET] Pulling it all
[3:30:21 PM ET] in. was the
[3:30:22 PM ET] seventh
[3:30:22 PM ET] FOMC
[3:30:22 PM ET] that being a layer of technology in the economy pulling it all in it was the seventh fomc
[3:30:23 PM ET] meeting of the
[3:30:24 PM ET] year, and that's what's
[3:30:24 PM ET] really
[3:30:26 PM ET] fascinating. The fourth for the
[3:30:27 PM ET] new
[3:30:27 PM ET] Fed chair
[3:30:28 PM ET] relatively
[3:30:28 PM ET] still
[3:30:28 PM ET] meeting of the year and that's what's really fascinating the fourth for the
[3:30:29 PM ET] new,
[3:30:29 PM ET] Kevin
[3:30:30 PM ET] Warsh.
[3:30:31 PM ET] And what's interesting, and I
[3:30:31 PM ET] new fed chair relatively still new kevin walsh and what's
[3:30:31 PM ET] think
[3:30:31 PM ET] we're
[3:30:32 PM ET] what caught everybody's
[3:30:32 PM ET] attention is that I'm going to be able to
[3:30:33 PM ET] is
[3:30:34 PM ET] yes, the
[3:30:34 PM ET] Fed
[3:30:34 PM ET] left
[3:30:35 PM ET] an
[3:30:35 PM ET] interest rates unchanged.
[3:30:35 PM ET] interesting and i think what caught everybody's attention is yes
[3:30:36 PM ET] They reiterated
[3:30:36 PM ET] their
[3:30:37 PM ET] commitment to containing
[3:30:38 PM ET] inflation. That is
[3:30:38 PM ET] still
[3:30:38 PM ET] the fed left interest rates unchanged they reiterated their commitment to containing inflation that is still
[3:30:39 PM ET] a
[3:30:39 PM ET] problem.
[3:30:40 PM ET] but without offering a
[3:30:41 PM ET] clear
[3:30:41 PM ET] signal that they might
[3:30:41 PM ET] raise
[3:30:42 PM ET] rates at their
[3:30:43 PM ET] next meeting in
[3:30:43 PM ET] problem but without offering a clear signal that they might raise rates at their next
[3:30:44 PM ET] December. That will be their last
[3:30:45 PM ET] meeting of
[3:30:46 PM ET] 2026.
[3:30:47 PM ET] Two dissents,
[3:30:47 PM ET] meeting in december that will be their last meeting of twenty twenty six two dissents
[3:30:48 PM ET] muted market
[3:30:49 PM ET] reaction,
[3:30:50 PM ET] initially. I gotta
[3:30:51 PM ET] say,
[3:30:51 PM ET] what caught everyone's
[3:30:52 PM ET] attention, it caught
[3:30:52 PM ET] muted market reaction initially i gotta say what caught
[3:30:52 PM ET] us. It was a
[3:30:53 PM ET] red
[3:30:54 PM ET] headline on the
[3:30:55 PM ET] Bloomberg.
[3:30:55 PM ET] Fed chair Kevin
[3:30:55 PM ET] everyone's attention it caught us it was a red headline on the bloomberg
[3:30:56 PM ET] Warsh
[3:30:56 PM ET] on
[3:30:57 PM ET] the
[3:30:57 PM ET] actual
[3:30:58 PM ET] meetings
[3:30:59 PM ET] themselves.
[3:30:59 PM ET] fed chair kevin walsh on the actual meetings themselves
[3:31:00 PM ET] We've
[3:31:00 PM ET] decided on
[3:31:00 PM ET] a
[3:31:01 PM ET] change in
[3:31:01 PM ET] our
[3:31:02 PM ET] FOMC
[3:31:03 PM ET] schedule
[3:31:03 PM ET] starting next
[3:31:03 PM ET] we've decided on a change in our fomc schedule so
[3:31:05 PM ET] next fall, we believe eight
[3:31:06 PM ET] meetings per
[3:31:07 PM ET] year is the right
[3:31:07 PM ET] starting next fall we believe eight meetings per year
[3:31:08 PM ET] number
[3:31:08 PM ET] for the
[3:31:09 PM ET] is the right number for the fomc
[3:31:09 PM ET] FOMC.
[3:31:10 PM ET] But
[3:31:10 PM ET] in
[3:31:11 PM ET] twenty twenty
[3:31:11 PM ET] but in twenty twenty seven
[3:31:12 PM ET] one
[3:31:12 PM ET] meeting will be a very important
[3:31:12 PM ET] focus on the
[3:31:13 PM ET] exclusively on the
[3:31:14 PM ET] on
[3:31:14 PM ET] broad
[3:31:15 PM ET] monetary
[3:31:16 PM ET] policy
[3:31:17 PM ET] one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy
[3:31:17 PM ET] strategy.
[3:31:17 PM ET] with
[3:31:17 PM ET] neither
[3:31:18 PM ET] a vote on
[3:31:18 PM ET] the
[3:31:19 PM ET] federal
[3:31:19 PM ET] funds
[3:31:19 PM ET] rate
[3:31:20 PM ET] nor
[3:31:20 PM ET] a
[3:31:20 PM ET] policy
[3:31:21 PM ET] with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement
[3:31:21 PM ET] statement.
[3:31:23 PM ET] anticipated. The
[3:31:23 PM ET] rest
[3:31:24 PM ET] will
[3:31:24 PM ET] be
[3:31:25 PM ET] regular.
[3:31:25 PM ET] FOMC
[3:31:26 PM ET] policy setting
[3:31:26 PM ET] anticipated the rest will be regular
[3:31:27 PM ET] meetings.
[3:31:28 PM ET] And I expect
[3:31:28 PM ET] that in
[3:31:29 PM ET] twenty twenty
[3:31:29 PM ET] fomc policy setting meetings and i expect that in twenty twenty eight
[3:31:30 PM ET] we have to be able to do
[3:31:30 PM ET] two
[3:31:31 PM ET] meetings dedicated to
[3:31:32 PM ET] discussions of
[3:31:33 PM ET] strategy and
[3:31:34 PM ET] six for
[3:31:34 PM ET] we'll have two meetings dedicated to discussions of strategy and six
[3:31:34 PM ET] setting
[3:31:36 PM ET] policy.
[3:31:37 PM ET] for setting policy
[3:31:38 PM ET] All
[3:31:39 PM ET] right, that of course fits
[3:31:39 PM ET] Chair
[3:31:40 PM ET] Kevin Warshaw at
[3:31:41 PM ET] today's press
[3:31:41 PM ET] conference
[3:31:41 PM ET] on
[3:31:41 PM ET] alright that of course fed chair kevin warshock
[3:31:42 PM ET] to
[3:31:42 PM ET] the next
[3:31:43 PM ET] decision, which is December
[3:31:44 PM ET] 9th.
[3:31:44 PM ET] today's press conference on to the next decision which is december ninth but
[3:31:45 PM ET] but I gotta say
[3:31:45 PM ET] it's a new
[3:31:46 PM ET] era. It's a new era, and I
[3:31:47 PM ET] think that not a
[3:31:47 PM ET] gotta say it's a new era it's a new era and i think
[3:31:48 PM ET] entirely coming as
[3:31:49 PM ET] a
[3:31:49 PM ET] surprise
[3:31:50 PM ET] given
[3:31:50 PM ET] what the Fed chair
[3:31:51 PM ET] has said over
[3:31:52 PM ET] the last
[3:31:52 PM ET] few
[3:31:52 PM ET] that not entirely coming as a surprise given what the fed chair has said
[3:31:53 PM ET] months
[3:31:53 PM ET] about the ways that
[3:31:54 PM ET] he thought the Fed
[3:31:55 PM ET] has
[3:31:55 PM ET] been
[3:31:56 PM ET] over-communicating. I'm
[3:31:56 PM ET] over the last few months about the ways that he thought the fed has
[3:31:57 PM ET] I'm not shocked. I'm
[3:31:58 PM ET] actually shocked that it's not
[3:31:59 PM ET] more
[3:31:59 PM ET] than one fewer
[3:31:59 PM ET] been over communicating mhmm i'm not i'm not shocked i'm actually shocked
[3:32:00 PM ET] meetings. It was a
[3:32:01 PM ET] shorter press
[3:32:02 PM ET] conference
[3:32:02 PM ET] today, one
[3:32:03 PM ET] question.
[3:32:03 PM ET] that it's not more than one fewer meeting it was a shorter press conference today one question
[3:32:03 PM ET] is.
[3:32:04 PM ET] that we have to do it.
[3:32:05 PM ET] So people who usually are called on were not
[3:32:06 PM ET] called on? Yeah, we are definitely
[3:32:07 PM ET] living in
[3:32:07 PM ET] a different
[3:32:08 PM ET] usually are called on were not called on yeah we are definitely living in a different environment
[3:32:08 PM ET] environment.
[3:32:09 PM ET] um which is
[3:32:09 PM ET] why
[3:32:09 PM ET] we want to get a lot of
[3:32:09 PM ET] going
[3:32:10 PM ET] with
[3:32:10 PM ET] the
[3:32:10 PM ET] conversations
[3:32:11 PM ET] here at
[3:32:11 PM ET] Schwab
[3:32:12 PM ET] Impact
[3:32:13 PM ET] 2026.
[3:32:13 PM ET] which is why we want to get going with the conversations here at schwab
[3:32:13 PM ET] and it's great to be
[3:32:13 PM ET] kicking
[3:32:14 PM ET] off
[3:32:14 PM ET] our
[3:32:15 PM ET] coverage with some of the other
[3:32:15 PM ET] things that we
[3:32:15 PM ET] talked
[3:32:16 PM ET] to
[3:32:16 PM ET] just
[3:32:16 PM ET] about a year
[3:32:16 PM ET] impact twenty twenty six and it's great to be kicking off our coverage
[3:32:17 PM ET] ago.
[3:32:17 PM ET] Omar
[3:32:18 PM ET] Aguilar. He's CEO of the CEO of the CEO
[3:32:19 PM ET] and
[3:32:19 PM ET] CIO
[3:32:19 PM ET] of
[3:32:19 PM ET] Schwab
[3:32:19 PM ET] with someone we talked to just about a year ago omar aguilar he's ceo and cio of schwab
[3:32:20 PM ET] Asset Management.
[3:32:21 PM ET] It is
[3:32:21 PM ET] good to be able
[3:32:22 PM ET] kicking
[3:32:22 PM ET] off
[3:32:22 PM ET] with
[3:32:23 PM ET] you.
[3:32:24 PM ET] First of
[3:32:24 PM ET] asset management it is good to be kicking off with you
[3:32:25 PM ET] all, I guess I have to do
[3:32:25 PM ET] start with the next
[3:32:26 PM ET] Fed
[3:32:27 PM ET] decision.
[3:32:28 PM ET] How
[3:32:28 PM ET] first of all i guess i have to start with the fed decision
[3:32:28 PM ET] important
[3:32:28 PM ET] how important
[3:32:28 PM ET] was
[3:32:29 PM ET] it
[3:32:30 PM ET] was it that
[3:32:30 PM ET] that, you
[3:32:30 PM ET] know
[3:32:31 PM ET] we're
[3:32:31 PM ET] not getting a lot
[3:32:31 PM ET] of
[3:32:32 PM ET] clarity
[3:32:32 PM ET] about what
[3:32:32 PM ET] comes
[3:32:33 PM ET] next, we might
[3:32:33 PM ET] have
[3:32:34 PM ET] fewer
[3:32:34 PM ET] meetings
[3:32:34 PM ET] where
[3:32:35 PM ET] there's
[3:32:35 PM ET] we're not getting a lot of clarity about what comes next we might have
[3:32:35 PM ET] actually
[3:32:35 PM ET] interest
[3:32:36 PM ET] rate
[3:32:36 PM ET] decisions
[3:32:36 PM ET] or
[3:32:37 PM ET] decisions
[3:32:37 PM ET] that come
[3:32:38 PM ET] out. How are you
[3:32:38 PM ET] thinking about
[3:32:38 PM ET] fewer meetings where there's actually interest rate decisions or
[3:32:38 PM ET] this
[3:32:39 PM ET] new
[3:32:39 PM ET] Fed in
[3:32:39 PM ET] today's
[3:32:40 PM ET] environment?
[3:32:41 PM ET] Yes, well, first of
[3:32:41 PM ET] all,
[3:32:42 PM ET] decisions that come out how are you thinking about this new fed in today's environment
[3:32:42 PM ET] welcome again to
[3:32:43 PM ET] Impact.
[3:32:43 PM ET] It's always great to have
[3:32:44 PM ET] you
[3:32:44 PM ET] guys and
[3:32:45 PM ET] you
[3:32:45 PM ET] the energy
[3:32:45 PM ET] yes well first of all welcome again to impact you know it's always great to have
[3:32:45 PM ET] around
[3:32:46 PM ET] here
[3:32:46 PM ET] is
[3:32:47 PM ET] it cannot be the same without
[3:32:47 PM ET] you
[3:32:48 PM ET] guys it's great thank
[3:32:49 PM ET] you guys and you know the energy around here is it cannot be the same without
[3:32:49 PM ET] you.
[3:32:50 PM ET] you guys it's great thank you
[3:32:50 PM ET] Well, the
[3:32:51 PM ET] decision
[3:32:51 PM ET] uh was
[3:32:51 PM ET] not
[3:32:52 PM ET] a
[3:32:53 PM ET] surprise.
[3:32:53 PM ET] I think
[3:32:54 PM ET] well the decision was not a surprise i think
[3:32:55 PM ET] what we look
[3:32:55 PM ET] at
[3:32:55 PM ET] it
[3:32:56 PM ET] was there's two
[3:32:57 PM ET] dissent.
[3:32:58 PM ET] That's
[3:32:58 PM ET] obviously provides a
[3:32:59 PM ET] little
[3:32:59 PM ET] bit
[3:32:59 PM ET] of insight of
[3:32:59 PM ET] what we look at it was there's two dissents that obviously provide
[3:33:00 PM ET] what's going
[3:33:00 PM ET] on in the
[3:33:01 PM ET] discussions
[3:33:02 PM ET] there. And
[3:33:02 PM ET] a little bit of insight of what's going on in the discussions there and then
[3:33:03 PM ET] then the idea
[3:33:04 PM ET] that
[3:33:04 PM ET] they're going to be
[3:33:05 PM ET] committed to the
[3:33:05 PM ET] look at
[3:33:07 PM ET] inflation.
[3:33:08 PM ET] it only takes a lot of
[3:33:08 PM ET] tells us they're looking
[3:33:08 PM ET] the idea that they're gonna be committed to look at inflation
[3:33:09 PM ET] at a lot
[3:33:09 PM ET] of
[3:33:10 PM ET] data.
[3:33:11 PM ET] And what that for
[3:33:11 PM ET] us means,
[3:33:12 PM ET] yes, they will
[3:33:12 PM ET] it only tells us they're looking at a lot of data and what that for us means yes
[3:33:13 PM ET] likely
[3:33:14 PM ET] make a decision
[3:33:15 PM ET] in
[3:33:15 PM ET] December to
[3:33:15 PM ET] rate
[3:33:16 PM ET] hikes it will be
[3:33:17 PM ET] very hard
[3:33:17 PM ET] they will likely you know make a decision in december to rate
[3:33:18 PM ET] unless they see
[3:33:19 PM ET] a
[3:33:19 PM ET] dramatic change
[3:33:19 PM ET] in
[3:33:20 PM ET] inflation
[3:33:20 PM ET] it will be very hard unless they see a dramatic change in inflation data
[3:33:20 PM ET] data
[3:33:20 PM ET] for
[3:33:20 PM ET] from now
[3:33:21 PM ET] until
[3:33:22 PM ET] then that they
[3:33:22 PM ET] will
[3:33:22 PM ET] not make
[3:33:22 PM ET] a
[3:33:23 PM ET] move in
[3:33:24 PM ET] December.
[3:33:25 PM ET] The
[3:33:25 PM ET] communication
[3:33:25 PM ET] from now until then that they will not make a move in december
[3:33:26 PM ET] process
[3:33:26 PM ET] is
[3:33:26 PM ET] definitely
[3:33:27 PM ET] different.
[3:33:27 PM ET] I
[3:33:27 PM ET] think
[3:33:28 PM ET] uh
[3:33:28 PM ET] it
[3:33:28 PM ET] is
[3:33:29 PM ET] clearly some of the things that we
[3:33:29 PM ET] the communication process is definitely different
[3:33:29 PM ET] is not a very important
[3:33:29 PM ET] something
[3:33:29 PM ET] that
[3:33:30 PM ET] i think it is clearly something that
[3:33:30 PM ET] the challenge
[3:33:31 PM ET] chairman
[3:33:31 PM ET] has
[3:33:32 PM ET] made
[3:33:32 PM ET] a
[3:33:32 PM ET] conscious
[3:33:33 PM ET] decision
[3:33:33 PM ET] to
[3:33:33 PM ET] keep
[3:33:34 PM ET] this
[3:33:34 PM ET] a
[3:33:34 PM ET] little
[3:33:34 PM ET] more
[3:33:35 PM ET] vague
[3:33:35 PM ET] and
[3:33:35 PM ET] the chairman has made a conscious decision to keep this a little more vague
[3:33:35 PM ET] then
[3:33:35 PM ET] let
[3:33:36 PM ET] everybody
[3:33:36 PM ET] else try to do
[3:33:37 PM ET] interpret
[3:33:37 PM ET] what they're
[3:33:37 PM ET] trying to
[3:33:39 PM ET] to
[3:33:39 PM ET] do.
[3:33:40 PM ET] and then let everybody else try to interpret what they're trying to do i
[3:33:40 PM ET] I
[3:33:40 PM ET] think in
[3:33:40 PM ET] the
[3:33:41 PM ET] spirit
[3:33:41 PM ET] of what the Federal Federation
[3:33:41 PM ET] is trying to
[3:33:42 PM ET] do,
[3:33:43 PM ET] think in the spirit of what the fed is trying to do philosophically
[3:33:43 PM ET] philosophically. I
[3:33:44 PM ET] think if
[3:33:44 PM ET] we
[3:33:45 PM ET] believe
[3:33:45 PM ET] i think if we believe that
[3:33:45 PM ET] that you
[3:33:46 PM ET] know
[3:33:46 PM ET] we'll continue
[3:33:46 PM ET] to
[3:33:47 PM ET] look
[3:33:47 PM ET] at
[3:33:47 PM ET] data as
[3:33:47 PM ET] being the
[3:33:48 PM ET] main
[3:33:48 PM ET] driver for
[3:33:48 PM ET] the
[3:33:49 PM ET] decision
[3:33:50 PM ET] process.
[3:33:50 PM ET] you know we'll continue to look at data as being the main driver for the decision process
[3:33:50 PM ET] you know, that really
[3:33:51 PM ET] doesn't
[3:33:51 PM ET] change
[3:33:52 PM ET] other
[3:33:52 PM ET] than the
[3:33:53 PM ET] communication
[3:33:53 PM ET] process.
[3:33:54 PM ET] But you know, if we believe
[3:33:55 PM ET] you know that really doesn't change other than the communication process
[3:33:55 PM ET] but you know if we believe that
[3:33:55 PM ET] that
[3:33:55 PM ET] the
[3:33:56 PM ET] mandates
[3:33:56 PM ET] are
[3:33:57 PM ET] still the same and
[3:33:57 PM ET] we believe that the
[3:33:58 PM ET] there are
[3:33:58 PM ET] still going
[3:33:58 PM ET] to
[3:33:59 PM ET] continue
[3:33:59 PM ET] to
[3:33:59 PM ET] track
[3:34:00 PM ET] them then
[3:34:00 PM ET] the mandates are still the same and do we believe that they're still gonna continue to track them
[3:34:01 PM ET] I think the process
[3:34:01 PM ET] and
[3:34:01 PM ET] you
[3:34:01 PM ET] can
[3:34:02 PM ET] see the market
[3:34:02 PM ET] reaction
[3:34:02 PM ET] on
[3:34:03 PM ET] the
[3:34:04 PM ET] futures, you know,
[3:34:04 PM ET] clearly
[3:34:05 PM ET] spiked up by
[3:34:05 PM ET] then i think the process and you can see the market reaction on the futures
[3:34:05 PM ET] Sandy
[3:34:06 PM ET] December is probably
[3:34:06 PM ET] a
[3:34:07 PM ET] done
[3:34:07 PM ET] deal.
[3:34:08 PM ET] you know clearly spiked up by saying december is probably a done deal let's let's
[3:34:08 PM ET] Let's
[3:34:08 PM ET] get
[3:34:09 PM ET] to
[3:34:09 PM ET] We'll get to December
[3:34:10 PM ET] now and
[3:34:10 PM ET] then I want to
[3:34:10 PM ET] talk
[3:34:10 PM ET] more
[3:34:11 PM ET] about
[3:34:12 PM ET] communication.
[3:34:12 PM ET] get to we'll get to december now and then i wanna talk more about communication
[3:34:13 PM ET] Why wait until
[3:34:14 PM ET] December? Why not raise
[3:34:15 PM ET] rates at this
[3:34:16 PM ET] meeting?
[3:34:17 PM ET] If inflation's a problem, right? Why not do
[3:34:17 PM ET] why wait until december why not raise rates at this meeting
[3:34:18 PM ET] it? Yeah, it's
[3:34:21 PM ET] and I think that's a good
[3:34:21 PM ET] inflation's a problem right why not do it yeah it's and i think that's
[3:34:22 PM ET] question.
[3:34:23 PM ET] I think if you look
[3:34:23 PM ET] at the
[3:34:24 PM ET] that's a good that's a good question i think if you look at
[3:34:24 PM ET] data that's a
[3:34:25 PM ET] we
[3:34:25 PM ET] that got on
[3:34:26 PM ET] CPI and
[3:34:27 PM ET] PPI, and you look at
[3:34:28 PM ET] your
[3:34:28 PM ET] how you
[3:34:28 PM ET] the the data that we got on cpi and ppi
[3:34:28 PM ET] and you look at you know how
[3:34:29 PM ET] know
[3:34:29 PM ET] a lot of
[3:34:30 PM ET] the
[3:34:30 PM ET] current inflation
[3:34:31 PM ET] is
[3:34:32 PM ET] really driven
[3:34:33 PM ET] by
[3:34:33 PM ET] energy.
[3:34:33 PM ET] you know a lot of the current inflation is is really you know driven by energy
[3:34:33 PM ET] and a
[3:34:33 PM ET] lot
[3:34:34 PM ET] of
[3:34:34 PM ET] the other
[3:34:34 PM ET] components
[3:34:35 PM ET] that
[3:34:35 PM ET] go into
[3:34:35 PM ET] the
[3:34:36 PM ET] inflation whether
[3:34:36 PM ET] it's
[3:34:37 PM ET] wage
[3:34:37 PM ET] growth,
[3:34:37 PM ET] whether
[3:34:38 PM ET] and a lot of the other components that go into the inflation whether it's wage growth whether it's
[3:34:38 PM ET] it's
[3:34:38 PM ET] supply
[3:34:39 PM ET] chains, whether it's a
[3:34:40 PM ET] all
[3:34:40 PM ET] those
[3:34:41 PM ET] they're
[3:34:41 PM ET] just the
[3:34:42 PM ET] started
[3:34:42 PM ET] to
[3:34:42 PM ET] just
[3:34:42 PM ET] play
[3:34:43 PM ET] a
[3:34:43 PM ET] you know supply chains whether it's all those they just started to just
[3:34:43 PM ET] play a role
[3:34:44 PM ET] role.
[3:34:44 PM ET] I
[3:34:45 PM ET] think
[3:34:45 PM ET] that
[3:34:45 PM ET] decision
[3:34:45 PM ET] to
[3:34:46 PM ET] just
[3:34:46 PM ET] wait
[3:34:46 PM ET] for a couple of
[3:34:47 PM ET] more
[3:34:47 PM ET] months
[3:34:48 PM ET] is
[3:34:48 PM ET] probably
[3:34:48 PM ET] not
[3:34:48 PM ET] i think the decision to just wait for a couple more months it's probably not
[3:34:49 PM ET] as a
[3:34:49 PM ET] bad
[3:34:50 PM ET] decision
[3:34:50 PM ET] given
[3:34:50 PM ET] that you
[3:34:50 PM ET] as a bad decision given that
[3:34:51 PM ET] it's
[3:34:51 PM ET] not
[3:34:51 PM ET] very clear to
[3:34:52 PM ET] me how
[3:34:52 PM ET] much
[3:34:52 PM ET] is just
[3:34:53 PM ET] oil
[3:34:53 PM ET] prices
[3:34:53 PM ET] being too
[3:34:54 PM ET] high.
[3:34:55 PM ET] other
[3:34:56 PM ET] than
[3:34:56 PM ET] there is really
[3:34:56 PM ET] it's very clear to me how much is just oil prices being too high
[3:34:56 PM ET] a
[3:34:57 PM ET] sustainable
[3:34:57 PM ET] thing that
[3:34:57 PM ET] is
[3:34:58 PM ET] going to
[3:34:58 PM ET] be hard
[3:34:58 PM ET] to
[3:34:59 PM ET] break.
[3:34:59 PM ET] Now, again, in the
[3:34:59 PM ET] other than there is really a sustainable things that is gonna be hard to break now
[3:35:00 PM ET] past,
[3:35:00 PM ET] depending
[3:35:00 PM ET] on
[3:35:01 PM ET] the
[3:35:02 PM ET] the
[3:35:02 PM ET] Fed, you
[3:35:02 PM ET] again in the past depending on the on the fed
[3:35:02 PM ET] know,
[3:35:03 PM ET] they
[3:35:03 PM ET] have
[3:35:03 PM ET] been
[3:35:04 PM ET] preemptive trying
[3:35:04 PM ET] to
[3:35:04 PM ET] just
[3:35:05 PM ET] not that
[3:35:05 PM ET] get out
[3:35:05 PM ET] of
[3:35:06 PM ET] hand.
[3:35:07 PM ET] This Fed seems to be a
[3:35:07 PM ET] little
[3:35:07 PM ET] know they have been preemptive trying to just not get get out of hand
[3:35:07 PM ET] more
[3:35:09 PM ET] patient, which,
[3:35:09 PM ET] again
[3:35:09 PM ET] is
[3:35:09 PM ET] a
[3:35:10 PM ET] double
[3:35:10 PM ET] edge
[3:35:10 PM ET] this fed seems to be a little more patient which again it's a double edged sword
[3:35:10 PM ET] short
[3:35:11 PM ET] i could
[3:35:11 PM ET] It actually mean
[3:35:12 PM ET] that you know if they are
[3:35:13 PM ET] could be late, that that's
[3:35:14 PM ET] always
[3:35:14 PM ET] a
[3:35:15 PM ET] problem but
[3:35:15 PM ET] also at the same
[3:35:15 PM ET] it could actually mean that you know if they are they could be late that that's always a problem
[3:35:15 PM ET] time, could
[3:35:16 PM ET] it be that they are
[3:35:17 PM ET] not
[3:35:17 PM ET] overreacting to
[3:35:17 PM ET] just
[3:35:18 PM ET] one
[3:35:18 PM ET] particular set
[3:35:19 PM ET] of
[3:35:19 PM ET] but also at the same time could be that they are not overreacting to just one particular set of points
[3:35:20 PM ET] points.
[3:35:20 PM ET] You know, I always think about
[3:35:21 PM ET] when we get to catch
[3:35:21 PM ET] up
[3:35:21 PM ET] with
[3:35:23 PM ET] somebody and
[3:35:23 PM ET] if there's a year or
[3:35:24 PM ET] 12
[3:35:24 PM ET] you know i always think about when we get to catch up with somebody and if there's a year or
[3:35:25 PM ET] months, a lot has
[3:35:26 PM ET] happened.
[3:35:27 PM ET] In particular, we've got
[3:35:28 PM ET] wars, but we're
[3:35:28 PM ET] twelve months a lot has happened in particular we've got wars but we're also
[3:35:29 PM ET] also, I
[3:35:30 PM ET] think,
[3:35:30 PM ET] increasingly
[3:35:31 PM ET] questioning
[3:35:31 PM ET] the AI
[3:35:32 PM ET] spend and
[3:35:33 PM ET] the impact of the
[3:35:34 PM ET] What's the smart narrative for
[3:35:34 PM ET] i think increasingly questioning the ai spend mhmm and the impact what's
[3:35:35 PM ET] you?
[3:35:36 PM ET] investment
[3:35:37 PM ET] thesis-wise?
[3:35:38 PM ET] like about AI?
[3:35:38 PM ET] what's the smart narrative for you investment thesis wise like about
[3:35:39 PM ET] which is a big topic
[3:35:40 PM ET] here.
[3:35:41 PM ET] It is a big topic, and you
[3:35:42 PM ET] know, I walk
[3:35:43 PM ET] around, and a lot of
[3:35:43 PM ET] ai yeah there is which is a big topic here it is a big topic and you know i i will
[3:35:44 PM ET] RIAs, you know, keep on asking
[3:35:45 PM ET] about what is our
[3:35:46 PM ET] view
[3:35:46 PM ET] on AI
[3:35:47 PM ET] and
[3:35:47 PM ET] the
[3:35:47 PM ET] around and a lot of rias you know keep on asking about what is our
[3:35:47 PM ET] future of AI.
[3:35:48 PM ET] view on ai and the and the future of it well
[3:35:48 PM ET] it.
[3:35:48 PM ET] Well, I think
[3:35:49 PM ET] we
[3:35:49 PM ET] got
[3:35:49 PM ET] to a
[3:35:49 PM ET] point
[3:35:50 PM ET] now
[3:35:50 PM ET] where
[3:35:50 PM ET] we
[3:35:50 PM ET] are
[3:35:51 PM ET] seeing
[3:35:51 PM ET] deceleration
[3:35:51 PM ET] of
[3:35:52 PM ET] capital
[3:35:53 PM ET] expenditure.
[3:35:53 PM ET] So what that
[3:35:53 PM ET] i think we got to a point now where we are seeing deceleration of capital expenditure
[3:35:54 PM ET] is, what that
[3:35:54 PM ET] means
[3:35:54 PM ET] is
[3:35:54 PM ET] we
[3:35:55 PM ET] saw
[3:35:55 PM ET] a
[3:35:56 PM ET] significant
[3:35:56 PM ET] boom
[3:35:56 PM ET] of
[3:35:57 PM ET] capex that
[3:35:57 PM ET] got
[3:35:57 PM ET] us
[3:35:57 PM ET] so what that is what that means is we saw a significant boom of capex that got
[3:35:58 PM ET] to
[3:35:58 PM ET] where
[3:35:58 PM ET] we
[3:35:58 PM ET] are
[3:35:59 PM ET] today.
[3:35:59 PM ET] and a lot of
[3:35:59 PM ET] that
[3:36:00 PM ET] has
[3:36:00 PM ET] come
[3:36:01 PM ET] primarily
[3:36:01 PM ET] from
[3:36:01 PM ET] these
[3:36:02 PM ET] us to where we are today and a lot of that has come primarily from these hyperscaler
[3:36:03 PM ET] hyperscalers.
[3:36:03 PM ET] Now, the
[3:36:03 PM ET] ability
[3:36:04 PM ET] to
[3:36:05 PM ET] hyperscalers
[3:36:05 PM ET] to
[3:36:05 PM ET] basically
[3:36:06 PM ET] provide
[3:36:06 PM ET] that
[3:36:06 PM ET] now the the ability to hyperscalers to basically provide that
[3:36:07 PM ET] boost
[3:36:07 PM ET] into
[3:36:07 PM ET] capex
[3:36:08 PM ET] for AI.
[3:36:09 PM ET] has
[3:36:09 PM ET] actually
[3:36:10 PM ET] been
[3:36:10 PM ET] the
[3:36:11 PM ET] driver of a
[3:36:11 PM ET] boost into capex for ai has actually been the
[3:36:11 PM ET] lot
[3:36:11 PM ET] of you
[3:36:13 PM ET] performance
[3:36:13 PM ET] on
[3:36:13 PM ET] those
[3:36:13 PM ET] stocks that
[3:36:14 PM ET] are
[3:36:14 PM ET] driven
[3:36:14 PM ET] on
[3:36:14 PM ET] AI.
[3:36:15 PM ET] mostly
[3:36:15 PM ET] of a lot of you know performance on those stocks
[3:36:16 PM ET] semiconductors and the
[3:36:16 PM ET] areas
[3:36:17 PM ET] around
[3:36:17 PM ET] it.
[3:36:18 PM ET] Now, when you
[3:36:18 PM ET] see that,
[3:36:18 PM ET] diesel.
[3:36:18 PM ET] that are driven on ai mostly semiconductors and the areas around it
[3:36:19 PM ET] that doesn't
[3:36:19 PM ET] necessarily mean they're
[3:36:20 PM ET] going
[3:36:20 PM ET] to stop
[3:36:20 PM ET] their
[3:36:21 PM ET] capital
[3:36:21 PM ET] expenditures
[3:36:21 PM ET] but
[3:36:22 PM ET] that
[3:36:22 PM ET] actually means
[3:36:22 PM ET] now when you see that deceleration that doesn't necessarily mean they're gonna stop their capital expenditures but that
[3:36:22 PM ET] they're going
[3:36:22 PM ET] to
[3:36:23 PM ET] be
[3:36:23 PM ET] more
[3:36:24 PM ET] selective of where they
[3:36:24 PM ET] go in terms
[3:36:25 PM ET] of AI.
[3:36:25 PM ET] in the
[3:36:27 PM ET] It's so smart.
[3:36:27 PM ET] actually means they're gonna be more selective of where they go in terms of ai so smart
[3:36:27 PM ET] Smart is
[3:36:27 PM ET] probably
[3:36:28 PM ET] a good
[3:36:28 PM ET] word to say
[3:36:29 PM ET] it.
[3:36:30 PM ET] On the other
[3:36:31 PM ET] hand, when you look at the
[3:36:31 PM ET] other
[3:36:31 PM ET] isn't it smart is probably a good word to say it you know on the
[3:36:31 PM ET] part
[3:36:32 PM ET] of
[3:36:32 PM ET] it, which is the advantage of
[3:36:33 PM ET] adoption of AI.
[3:36:34 PM ET] which is in my
[3:36:35 PM ET] mind probably the
[3:36:35 PM ET] hand when you look at the other part of it which is the adoption
[3:36:36 PM ET] phase
[3:36:36 PM ET] that has
[3:36:36 PM ET] been
[3:36:37 PM ET] more
[3:36:37 PM ET] or
[3:36:38 PM ET] less you
[3:36:38 PM ET] know talk
[3:36:38 PM ET] of ai which is in my mind probably the phase that has been more or less
[3:36:39 PM ET] talked
[3:36:39 PM ET] about is how
[3:36:40 PM ET] many of you
[3:36:41 PM ET] the rest of
[3:36:42 PM ET] the industries
[3:36:42 PM ET] are starting
[3:36:43 PM ET] to adopt
[3:36:43 PM ET] you know talked about is you know how many of the rest of the industries are starting to adopt
[3:36:43 PM ET] and
[3:36:44 PM ET] invest into
[3:36:45 PM ET] that. And to
[3:36:45 PM ET] and invest into that and to me
[3:36:45 PM ET] me, you
[3:36:46 PM ET] know, the
[3:36:46 PM ET] biggest, you
[3:36:47 PM ET] know
[3:36:48 PM ET] challenge that we
[3:36:49 PM ET] face
[3:36:49 PM ET] is that a lot of
[3:36:50 PM ET] the
[3:36:50 PM ET] you know the biggest you know challenge that we face is that a lot of the
[3:36:51 PM ET] rest
[3:36:51 PM ET] of the
[3:36:52 PM ET] industries
[3:36:52 PM ET] that are starting
[3:36:53 PM ET] adopting AI,
[3:36:54 PM ET] they're using the dead
[3:36:55 PM ET] market to try to
[3:36:55 PM ET] rest of the industries that are starting adopting ai
[3:36:56 PM ET] use
[3:36:57 PM ET] CapEx, and that's a little
[3:36:58 PM ET] more
[3:36:58 PM ET] they're using the dead market to try to use capex
[3:36:59 PM ET] dangerous. You know, it's different than it's
[3:37:00 PM ET] not just
[3:37:01 PM ET] companies that are, you
[3:37:01 PM ET] and that's a little more dangerous you know it's different than you have it's
[3:37:01 PM ET] it's not just companies that are you know
[3:37:02 PM ET] know.
[3:37:03 PM ET] not
[3:37:03 PM ET] the
[3:37:04 PM ET] hyperscalers.
[3:37:04 PM ET] Like you have
[3:37:05 PM ET] hyperscalers
[3:37:05 PM ET] that are
[3:37:05 PM ET] doing
[3:37:05 PM ET] this
[3:37:06 PM ET] now
[3:37:06 PM ET] not the hyperscalers like you have hyperscalers that are doing this now that
[3:37:06 PM ET] that
[3:37:06 PM ET] you in
[3:37:06 PM ET] a
[3:37:07 PM ET] million
[3:37:07 PM ET] years
[3:37:07 PM ET] you
[3:37:07 PM ET] wouldn't
[3:37:07 PM ET] have
[3:37:07 PM ET] thought
[3:37:08 PM ET] this would
[3:37:08 PM ET] be a
[3:37:08 PM ET] company
[3:37:08 PM ET] that would
[3:37:09 PM ET] be
[3:37:09 PM ET] have
[3:37:09 PM ET] negative
[3:37:09 PM ET] cash
[3:37:10 PM ET] flows.
[3:37:11 PM ET] Right,
[3:37:11 PM ET] you in a million years you wouldn't have thought this would be a company that would be have negative cash
[3:37:12 PM ET] exactly. And I think that's
[3:37:12 PM ET] the
[3:37:12 PM ET] key
[3:37:13 PM ET] piece.
[3:37:14 PM ET] If you again, if you have somebody that has
[3:37:15 PM ET] a you
[3:37:15 PM ET] right exact exactly and i think that's the that's the key piece if you you know again if you have somebody
[3:37:15 PM ET] know
[3:37:16 PM ET] significant
[3:37:16 PM ET] strength in
[3:37:16 PM ET] the
[3:37:16 PM ET] balance sheet.
[3:37:17 PM ET] and their
[3:37:17 PM ET] they
[3:37:18 PM ET] that has you know significant strength in the balance sheet and they borrow
[3:37:18 PM ET] borrow you
[3:37:18 PM ET] would
[3:37:18 PM ET] think that
[3:37:19 PM ET] they're
[3:37:19 PM ET] doing a good
[3:37:19 PM ET] thing,
[3:37:20 PM ET] right?
[3:37:20 PM ET] Instead of a way
[3:37:21 PM ET] they're
[3:37:21 PM ET] using
[3:37:21 PM ET] their
[3:37:21 PM ET] capital
[3:37:22 PM ET] and
[3:37:22 PM ET] efficiently.
[3:37:23 PM ET] But you have a
[3:37:23 PM ET] may think that they're doing a good thing right and so in a way they're using their capital inefficiently
[3:37:23 PM ET] company
[3:37:23 PM ET] that
[3:37:23 PM ET] doesn't
[3:37:24 PM ET] necessarily have to be able
[3:37:24 PM ET] that
[3:37:24 PM ET] cash
[3:37:25 PM ET] flow
[3:37:25 PM ET] or
[3:37:25 PM ET] it
[3:37:25 PM ET] doesn't even
[3:37:25 PM ET] have
[3:37:26 PM ET] that
[3:37:26 PM ET] strength to balance sheet.
[3:37:27 PM ET] and they're
[3:37:27 PM ET] using the dead
[3:37:27 PM ET] but you have a company that doesn't necessarily have that cash flow or doesn't
[3:37:28 PM ET] debt
[3:37:28 PM ET] market
[3:37:28 PM ET] to
[3:37:29 PM ET] invest
[3:37:29 PM ET] in
[3:37:29 PM ET] AI.
[3:37:30 PM ET] that's where we
[3:37:30 PM ET] have that strength of the balance sheet and they're using the debt market to invest in ai
[3:37:31 PM ET] we're starting to
[3:37:31 PM ET] see
[3:37:32 PM ET] challenges in
[3:37:32 PM ET] the credit.
[3:37:33 PM ET] market.
[3:37:33 PM ET] And I think that's to
[3:37:34 PM ET] me,
[3:37:34 PM ET] going into
[3:37:34 PM ET] that's where we're starting to see challenges in the credit market and i think that's to me
[3:37:35 PM ET] next
[3:37:35 PM ET] year, the biggest
[3:37:36 PM ET] part
[3:37:36 PM ET] of
[3:37:36 PM ET] what
[3:37:36 PM ET] we
[3:37:36 PM ET] have to
[3:37:37 PM ET] look
[3:37:37 PM ET] at.
[3:37:39 PM ET] Challenge or actual
[3:37:39 PM ET] going into next year the biggest part of what we have to look at challenge
[3:37:39 PM ET] bubble. And we're going to
[3:37:40 PM ET] see
[3:37:40 PM ET] some
[3:37:41 PM ET] implications of a
[3:37:41 PM ET] bubble
[3:37:42 PM ET] bursting.
[3:37:43 PM ET] And we may see some
[3:37:43 PM ET] or actual bubble and we're gonna see some implications of a bubble bursting
[3:37:44 PM ET] cracks
[3:37:44 PM ET] in the credit
[3:37:45 PM ET] market as we
[3:37:45 PM ET] go
[3:37:46 PM ET] there.
[3:37:46 PM ET] We believe that that's
[3:37:47 PM ET] we may see some cracks in the credit market as we go there we we believe that that's
[3:37:48 PM ET] obviously also a pretty normal
[3:37:49 PM ET] part
[3:37:49 PM ET] of a
[3:37:50 PM ET] cycle where we
[3:37:50 PM ET] need to see
[3:37:51 PM ET] some, you
[3:37:51 PM ET] credit
[3:37:51 PM ET] obviously also a pretty normal part of a cycle where
[3:37:51 PM ET] events
[3:37:52 PM ET] for us to start
[3:37:53 PM ET] realizing that
[3:37:53 PM ET] we need to see some you know credit events for us to start realizing that that
[3:37:54 PM ET] you know cycle is starting
[3:37:54 PM ET] to
[3:37:55 PM ET] go
[3:37:56 PM ET] differently. With a spending boom like
[3:37:57 PM ET] this, does there have to be a
[3:37:58 PM ET] bust?
[3:37:58 PM ET] you know cycle starts to go differently with a spending boom like this does there have to be a bust
[3:37:59 PM ET] It doesn't have to, but it,
[3:38:00 PM ET] there will be volatility.
[3:38:01 PM ET] and there will
[3:38:02 PM ET] be, you
[3:38:02 PM ET] winners and
[3:38:03 PM ET] losers there will be there
[3:38:03 PM ET] it doesn't have to but it but there will be volatility and there will be you know winners and losers
[3:38:04 PM ET] will be that kind
[3:38:04 PM ET] of
[3:38:05 PM ET] dispersion
[3:38:06 PM ET] that
[3:38:06 PM ET] will
[3:38:06 PM ET] there will be there will be that kind of dispersion that that will exist
[3:38:07 PM ET] exist.
[3:38:07 PM ET] What do you think is the biggest
[3:38:08 PM ET] risk right
[3:38:09 PM ET] now?
[3:38:09 PM ET] And looking at the notes that you
[3:38:10 PM ET] shared, your team
[3:38:11 PM ET] shared with
[3:38:11 PM ET] us.
[3:38:11 PM ET] you think is the biggest risk right now and you know looking at the notes that you shared your team shared with us
[3:38:13 PM ET] midterms.
[3:38:14 PM ET] U.S. war with Iran.
[3:38:15 PM ET] higher
[3:38:15 PM ET] energy
[3:38:15 PM ET] prices,
[3:38:16 PM ET] still put in the
[3:38:16 PM ET] persistent
[3:38:16 PM ET] midterms us war with iran higher
[3:38:17 PM ET] inflation, AI
[3:38:18 PM ET] meeting
[3:38:18 PM ET] that
[3:38:18 PM ET] high
[3:38:18 PM ET] higher rate
[3:38:19 PM ET] environment that we
[3:38:19 PM ET] we've
[3:38:19 PM ET] just been talking
[3:38:19 PM ET] energy prices still persistent inflation ai meeting that
[3:38:21 PM ET] about.
[3:38:21 PM ET] cap expectations.
[3:38:21 PM ET] spending
[3:38:22 PM ET] coming down.
[3:38:23 PM ET] earnings
[3:38:23 PM ET] expectations.
[3:38:23 PM ET] higher rate environment that we've just been talking about capex spending coming down
[3:38:24 PM ET] and the
[3:38:24 PM ET] comparisons
[3:38:25 PM ET] that's
[3:38:25 PM ET] getting to the
[3:38:25 PM ET] in
[3:38:25 PM ET] and
[3:38:26 PM ET] tougher.
[3:38:26 PM ET] what
[3:38:27 PM ET] is
[3:38:27 PM ET] the
[3:38:27 PM ET] biggest
[3:38:27 PM ET] risk you
[3:38:27 PM ET] earnings expectations and the comparisons that's getting tougher and tougher
[3:38:27 PM ET] think to
[3:38:28 PM ET] the
[3:38:28 PM ET] investing
[3:38:28 PM ET] environment right
[3:38:29 PM ET] now?
[3:38:30 PM ET] Well, I think for
[3:38:31 PM ET] us
[3:38:31 PM ET] it's basically a lot of the things that we
[3:38:32 PM ET] what is the biggest risk you think to the investing environment right now well i think for for us
[3:38:32 PM ET] looking
[3:38:32 PM ET] at
[3:38:32 PM ET] you
[3:38:33 PM ET] know
[3:38:33 PM ET] the
[3:38:34 PM ET] profitability of the
[3:38:35 PM ET] AI.
[3:38:36 PM ET] it's basically looking at you know the profitability of
[3:38:36 PM ET] investing.
[3:38:36 PM ET] And I think that
[3:38:36 PM ET] is going to
[3:38:37 PM ET] come
[3:38:37 PM ET] a
[3:38:38 PM ET] place
[3:38:38 PM ET] where it's going to be a very important
[3:38:38 PM ET] you
[3:38:39 PM ET] know
[3:38:39 PM ET] you
[3:38:40 PM ET] ai investing and i think that is gonna come to a place where
[3:38:40 PM ET] can
[3:38:40 PM ET] spend
[3:38:40 PM ET] as
[3:38:40 PM ET] much you
[3:38:41 PM ET] want
[3:38:41 PM ET] but at the
[3:38:41 PM ET] end
[3:38:41 PM ET] of
[3:38:42 PM ET] it
[3:38:42 PM ET] these
[3:38:42 PM ET] this has to
[3:38:43 PM ET] be some
[3:38:43 PM ET] return
[3:38:43 PM ET] I
[3:38:43 PM ET] on
[3:38:44 PM ET] you know you you can spend as much as you want but at the end of the end this
[3:38:44 PM ET] investments that
[3:38:44 PM ET] we'll
[3:38:44 PM ET] need
[3:38:45 PM ET] to
[3:38:45 PM ET] to be some return on investments that we'll need to show
[3:38:45 PM ET] show
[3:38:46 PM ET] on
[3:38:46 PM ET] on earnings
[3:38:47 PM ET] earnings. Because if you
[3:38:47 PM ET] look
[3:38:47 PM ET] at
[3:38:48 PM ET] it, the
[3:38:48 PM ET] earnings
[3:38:49 PM ET] growth compared
[3:38:49 PM ET] component that we
[3:38:49 PM ET] have
[3:38:50 PM ET] seen over the
[3:38:50 PM ET] last few
[3:38:51 PM ET] years has
[3:38:51 PM ET] because if you look at it the earnings growth component that we have seen over the last few years has been
[3:38:51 PM ET] been
[3:38:52 PM ET] been
[3:38:52 PM ET] in a
[3:38:52 PM ET] way, you
[3:38:53 PM ET] fueled by
[3:38:53 PM ET] these AI
[3:38:55 PM ET] but at some
[3:38:55 PM ET] point, it
[3:38:56 PM ET] just
[3:38:56 PM ET] gets
[3:38:56 PM ET] to
[3:38:56 PM ET] in a way you know fueled by this ai mhmm but at some point it just gets
[3:38:56 PM ET] an
[3:38:57 PM ET] area that that
[3:38:57 PM ET] doesn't
[3:38:58 PM ET] exist
[3:38:59 PM ET] anymore. And I think to
[3:38:59 PM ET] me, you
[3:39:00 PM ET] know, once you get to
[3:39:00 PM ET] that
[3:39:01 PM ET] point,
[3:39:01 PM ET] to an area that that doesn't exist anymore and i think to me
[3:39:02 PM ET] you
[3:39:02 PM ET] know, we still believe that
[3:39:03 PM ET] earnings expectations
[3:39:04 PM ET] are way too high going
[3:39:04 PM ET] you know once you get to that point you know i we still believe that earnings
[3:39:05 PM ET] into next
[3:39:06 PM ET] year. So I think that at some
[3:39:06 PM ET] point
[3:39:06 PM ET] they
[3:39:07 PM ET] that
[3:39:07 PM ET] the potential
[3:39:08 PM ET] disappointing
[3:39:08 PM ET] on earnings
[3:39:08 PM ET] expectations are way too high going into next year so i think that at some point the potential disappointing
[3:39:09 PM ET] growth
[3:39:09 PM ET] on earnings growth
[3:39:10 PM ET] it's
[3:39:10 PM ET] it's
[3:39:11 PM ET] latent. But don't you think
[3:39:12 PM ET] that, and this is the
[3:39:12 PM ET] it's it's it's latent but don't you think that
[3:39:13 PM ET] whole
[3:39:13 PM ET] argument for productivity?
[3:39:14 PM ET] don't you think
[3:39:15 PM ET] that the
[3:39:15 PM ET] this is the whole argument for productivity don't you think that
[3:39:16 PM ET] companies that
[3:39:17 PM ET] are not necessarily the
[3:39:18 PM ET] picks and
[3:39:18 PM ET] shovels or the
[3:39:19 PM ET] hyperscalers when it comes to the
[3:39:20 PM ET] this
[3:39:20 PM ET] the companies that are are not necessarily the picks and shovels
[3:39:21 PM ET] technology.
[3:39:21 PM ET] the hyperscalers when it comes to this technology
[3:39:22 PM ET] maybe.
[3:39:22 PM ET] in the next
[3:39:23 PM ET] couple of
[3:39:23 PM ET] years, the
[3:39:24 PM ET] biggest
[3:39:25 PM ET] beneficiaries on an earnings
[3:39:26 PM ET] may be in the next couple of years biggest beneficiaries on an earnings base
[3:39:27 PM ET] basis of the
[3:39:28 PM ET] technology? Well, I
[3:39:28 PM ET] of the technology well
[3:39:29 PM ET] think
[3:39:30 PM ET] the assumption there
[3:39:30 PM ET] is
[3:39:31 PM ET] that productivity.
[3:39:32 PM ET] i think the assumption there is that productivity will
[3:39:32 PM ET] will
[3:39:33 PM ET] you
[3:39:33 PM ET] know
[3:39:33 PM ET] get
[3:39:34 PM ET] into
[3:39:34 PM ET] areas
[3:39:34 PM ET] of
[3:39:35 PM ET] potential
[3:39:36 PM ET] cost,
[3:39:37 PM ET] savings.
[3:39:37 PM ET] get into areas of potentially cost
[3:39:37 PM ET] and it's not
[3:39:38 PM ET] very
[3:39:38 PM ET] clear to
[3:39:38 PM ET] me
[3:39:38 PM ET] that we
[3:39:39 PM ET] have
[3:39:39 PM ET] seen
[3:39:39 PM ET] any
[3:39:40 PM ET] instances
[3:39:40 PM ET] or
[3:39:40 PM ET] any
[3:39:40 PM ET] savings and it's not very clear to me that we
[3:39:41 PM ET] evidence
[3:39:41 PM ET] that
[3:39:41 PM ET] is the
[3:39:42 PM ET] case
[3:39:42 PM ET] just
[3:39:42 PM ET] And I
[3:39:43 PM ET] think the
[3:39:43 PM ET] in certain
[3:39:43 PM ET] seen any instances or any evidence that that is the case just yet and i think the
[3:39:44 PM ET] in certain way
[3:39:44 PM ET] way the
[3:39:44 PM ET] labor
[3:39:45 PM ET] market keeps
[3:39:45 PM ET] us
[3:39:45 PM ET] a lot
[3:39:45 PM ET] of
[3:39:46 PM ET] information.
[3:39:47 PM ET] There is no firing, there is
[3:39:47 PM ET] no
[3:39:48 PM ET] hiring,
[3:39:48 PM ET] and a
[3:39:48 PM ET] lot of the marketing is
[3:39:49 PM ET] that
[3:39:49 PM ET] labor market gives us a lot of information there's no firing there is no hiring and
[3:39:49 PM ET] people
[3:39:49 PM ET] are
[3:39:50 PM ET] expecting that
[3:39:50 PM ET] productivity.
[3:39:51 PM ET] will
[3:39:51 PM ET] have
[3:39:51 PM ET] some
[3:39:52 PM ET] impact in labor
[3:39:53 PM ET] market. It hasn't
[3:39:53 PM ET] a lot of that is people are expecting that productivity will have some impact in labor
[3:39:53 PM ET] had
[3:39:53 PM ET] happened.
[3:39:54 PM ET] You're not convinced.
[3:39:54 PM ET] market it hasn't happened you're not convinced
[3:39:54 PM ET] We're not
[3:39:55 PM ET] convinced
[3:39:55 PM ET] yet. You're
[3:39:55 PM ET] not
[3:39:56 PM ET] convinced that this
[3:39:56 PM ET] will
[3:39:56 PM ET] lead
[3:39:57 PM ET] to higher
[3:39:57 PM ET] productivity?
[3:39:59 PM ET] Dawson
[3:39:59 PM ET] is a
[3:39:59 PM ET] s no no
[3:39:59 PM ET] we're not we're not convinced yet you're not convinced that this will lead to higher productivity
[3:40:00 PM ET] no,
[3:40:01 PM ET] changes in
[3:40:02 PM ET] be a lot of
[3:40:02 PM ET] or cost
[3:40:03 PM ET] savings.
[3:40:03 PM ET] doesn't no no no no no changes in the labor market or cost saving
[3:40:04 PM ET] You know, I think what may
[3:40:04 PM ET] happen
[3:40:05 PM ET] is that
[3:40:06 PM ET] the
[3:40:06 PM ET] changes
[3:40:06 PM ET] in
[3:40:07 PM ET] productivity
[3:40:07 PM ET] will try
[3:40:07 PM ET] you know i think what may happen is that you know the
[3:40:08 PM ET] changes in productivity will translate
[3:40:08 PM ET] translate
[3:40:09 PM ET] in potential
[3:40:10 PM ET] acceleration of other
[3:40:10 PM ET] parts of the
[3:40:11 PM ET] their
[3:40:12 PM ET] business.
[3:40:12 PM ET] But doesn't
[3:40:12 PM ET] necessarily
[3:40:13 PM ET] potential acceleration of other parts of their business okay but doesn't necessarily mean that
[3:40:13 PM ET] mean that people
[3:40:13 PM ET] are going
[3:40:14 PM ET] to
[3:40:14 PM ET] get
[3:40:14 PM ET] fired
[3:40:15 PM ET] because
[3:40:15 PM ET] their
[3:40:16 PM ET] productivity
[3:40:17 PM ET] gains.
[3:40:18 PM ET] 20
[3:40:18 PM ET] seconds, is it an
[3:40:19 PM ET] people are gonna get fired because you know there are productivity gains
[3:40:20 PM ET] easier environment this
[3:40:21 PM ET] year versus last
[3:40:22 PM ET] year?
[3:40:22 PM ET] twenty seconds is it an easier environment this year versus last year
[3:40:23 PM ET] In terms of
[3:40:23 PM ET] investing?
[3:40:24 PM ET] Yeah, for the RIAs that are
[3:40:25 PM ET] here.
[3:40:25 PM ET] Oh these are their
[3:40:26 PM ET] clients.
[3:40:26 PM ET] well, this is
[3:40:27 PM ET] terms of investing yeah for the rias that are here oh this is and for their climate well
[3:40:28 PM ET] we're challenging
[3:40:29 PM ET] market this
[3:40:30 PM ET] year, you know, and especially
[3:40:31 PM ET] going into next year
[3:40:31 PM ET] this is definitely a more more challenging market this year
[3:40:32 PM ET] for
[3:40:32 PM ET] the reasons that, you
[3:40:33 PM ET] know mentioned
[3:40:34 PM ET] between geopolitical
[3:40:34 PM ET] you know and especially going into next year for the reasons that you know you mentioned between geopolitical
[3:40:35 PM ET] risk,
[3:40:36 PM ET] inflation, higher
[3:40:37 PM ET] yields
[3:40:37 PM ET] on bonds that we didn't get
[3:40:38 PM ET] to talk
[3:40:38 PM ET] about.
[3:40:39 PM ET] you know, interest
[3:40:39 PM ET] rates, you
[3:40:39 PM ET] risk inflation higher yields on bonds that we didn't get to talk about
[3:40:39 PM ET] know,
[3:40:40 PM ET] in a different
[3:40:41 PM ET] you know interest rates you know you know in a different cycle
[3:40:41 PM ET] cycle.
[3:40:42 PM ET] Earnings expectations.
[3:40:42 PM ET] that need to be
[3:40:43 PM ET] come down.
[3:40:44 PM ET] deceleration
[3:40:44 PM ET] of
[3:40:45 PM ET] capex.
[3:40:45 PM ET] I can
[3:40:46 PM ET] go
[3:40:46 PM ET] on and
[3:40:46 PM ET] earnings expectations that need to come down deceleration of capex
[3:40:46 PM ET] but
[3:40:46 PM ET] there's
[3:40:47 PM ET] is a
[3:40:47 PM ET] long
[3:40:48 PM ET] list
[3:40:48 PM ET] of
[3:40:48 PM ET] you
[3:40:48 PM ET] what we
[3:40:48 PM ET] call the
[3:40:49 PM ET] wall
[3:40:49 PM ET] of
[3:40:49 PM ET] you i can go on and on but there's a a long list of you know what we call the wall
[3:40:49 PM ET] worries
[3:40:50 PM ET] getting
[3:40:50 PM ET] taller and
[3:40:51 PM ET] taller so we didn't
[3:40:51 PM ET] talk
[3:40:51 PM ET] about fixed
[3:40:52 PM ET] income.
[3:40:52 PM ET] so just come back and
[3:40:53 PM ET] visit with
[3:40:53 PM ET] us.
[3:40:54 PM ET] and we'll be able to do it.
[3:40:54 PM ET] We will have to.
[3:40:54 PM ET] of worries getting taller and taller so we talk fixed income so just come back
[3:40:55 PM ET] Omar, thank you so
[3:40:56 PM ET] much. Thanks for inviting
[3:40:56 PM ET] us
[3:40:57 PM ET] in
[3:40:57 PM ET] again this
[3:40:57 PM ET] year. We really appreciate
[3:40:57 PM ET] and visit with us okay happy to omar thank you so much
[3:40:58 PM ET] it. Omar,
[3:40:59 PM ET] Aguilar,
[3:40:59 PM ET] ceo
[3:40:59 PM ET] and
[3:41:00 PM ET] CIO
[3:41:00 PM ET] of
[3:41:00 PM ET] Schwab
[3:41:01 PM ET] Asset
[3:41:01 PM ET] for inviting us in again this year we really appreciate it omar aguilar
[3:41:01 PM ET] Management.
[3:41:02 PM ET] Mate, coming up
[3:41:02 PM ET] AI.
[3:41:03 PM ET] Certainty
[3:41:03 PM ET] a big topic
[3:41:04 PM ET] ceo and cio of schwab asset management great coming up next
[3:41:04 PM ET] here
[3:41:04 PM ET] at Wall
[3:41:05 PM ET] Street and
[3:41:06 PM ET] at
[3:41:06 PM ET] Schwab
[3:41:07 PM ET] Impact.
[3:41:07 PM ET] Just last night, the company
[3:41:07 PM ET] ai certainty a big topic here at wall street and
[3:41:08 PM ET] announcing
[3:41:09 PM ET] at schwab impact just last night the company announcing
[3:41:09 PM ET] an
[3:41:09 PM ET] investment.
[3:41:10 PM ET] Yes.
[3:41:10 PM ET] expanding its AI.
[3:41:11 PM ET] capabilities for
[3:41:12 PM ET] financial
[3:41:13 PM ET] advisors.
[3:41:13 PM ET] We are going to get the
[3:41:13 PM ET] an investment yes expanding its ai capabilities for financial advisers we are going to
[3:41:14 PM ET] details on that
[3:41:15 PM ET] right after we're going to
[3:41:15 PM ET] this.
[3:41:16 PM ET] First up
[3:41:16 PM ET] though, we're setting it
[3:41:16 PM ET] get the details on that right after this first up though
[3:41:17 PM ET] back
[3:41:17 PM ET] to the
[3:41:18 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:41:18 PM ET] Interactive Broker
[3:41:20 PM ET] Studio a few hundred
[3:41:21 PM ET] miles south of
[3:41:22 PM ET] us, Charlie Pellett is holding
[3:41:22 PM ET] sending it back to the bloomberg interactive brokers studio a few
[3:41:23 PM ET] down
[3:41:23 PM ET] the fort. Hey
[3:41:24 PM ET] Charlie. Hi, thank you very much, Tim
[3:41:24 PM ET] and
[3:41:25 PM ET] Carroll. 19 minutes to
[3:41:25 PM ET] hundred miles south of us charlie peller is holding down the fort hey charlie hi thank you very much tim and carol
[3:41:26 PM ET] go ahead of the
[3:41:26 PM ET] closing
[3:41:27 PM ET] bell. Fed
[3:41:28 PM ET] Wednesday
[3:41:29 PM ET] Stocks higher right
[3:41:30 PM ET] now. However, I
[3:41:30 PM ET] nineteen minutes to go ahead of the closing bell fed wednesday stocks higher right
[3:41:31 PM ET] emphasize we got
[3:41:32 PM ET] NASDAQ
[3:41:33 PM ET] fluctuating right to the numbers
[3:41:34 PM ET] here, looking at a
[3:41:34 PM ET] now however i emphasize we got nasdaq fluctuating right to the numbers here looking at a ten
[3:41:35 PM ET] 10-point gain on the
[3:41:36 PM ET] S  ⁇ P 500
[3:41:37 PM ET] index.
[3:41:39 PM ET] 7733. Federal
[3:41:39 PM ET] ten point gain on the s and p five hundred index seventy
[3:41:40 PM ET] Reserve today
[3:41:41 PM ET] deciding to
[3:41:41 PM ET] leave rates unchanged.
[3:41:42 PM ET] The Dow
[3:41:42 PM ET] thirty three federal reserve today decided to leave rates unchanged
[3:41:43 PM ET] up two-tenths of
[3:41:43 PM ET] one
[3:41:44 PM ET] percent,
[3:41:45 PM ET] NASDAQ
[3:41:45 PM ET] now flat on the day.
[3:41:46 PM ET] NASDAQ
[3:41:47 PM ET] 100 index full of
[3:41:47 PM ET] the dow up two tenths of one percent nasdaq now flat on the day
[3:41:48 PM ET] those big tech
[3:41:49 PM ET] names including
[3:41:50 PM ET] Alphabet and
[3:41:50 PM ET] nasdaq one hundred index full of those big tech names including alphabet microsoft
[3:41:50 PM ET] Microsoft up to the next
[3:41:51 PM ET] now by about
[3:41:52 PM ET] three-tenths of one
[3:41:53 PM ET] 1%.
[3:41:53 PM ET] percent at
[3:41:53 PM ET] the short
[3:41:54 PM ET] end,
[3:41:54 PM ET] the
[3:41:54 PM ET] two-year
[3:41:54 PM ET] four
[3:41:55 PM ET] 4.7% of the 1% of the
[3:41:55 PM ET] up now by about three tenths of one percent at
[3:41:56 PM ET] year
[3:41:57 PM ET] 10-year,
[3:41:58 PM ET] year
[3:41:58 PM ET] short end the two year four point seven two percent year ten year
[3:41:59 PM ET] 5.04% the
[3:41:59 PM ET] third
[3:42:00 PM ET] year
[3:42:01 PM ET] 5.36%.
[3:42:02 PM ET] five point o four percent the thirty year five
[3:42:03 PM ET] Gold down
[3:42:03 PM ET] nine dollars
[3:42:03 PM ET] a
[3:42:03 PM ET] the
[3:42:04 PM ET] ounce
[3:42:04 PM ET] to
[3:42:04 PM ET] four
[3:42:05 PM ET] $4,050 down
[3:42:05 PM ET] point three six percent gold down nine dollars a
[3:42:05 PM ET] two tenths of a
[3:42:06 PM ET] 1%.
[3:42:07 PM ET] West
[3:42:07 PM ET] Texas
[3:42:08 PM ET] intermediate
[3:42:08 PM ET] Crude
[3:42:09 PM ET] to four thousand fifty down two tenths of one percent west
[3:42:09 PM ET] one oh two
[3:42:09 PM ET] seventy
[3:42:10 PM ET] to a
[3:42:10 PM ET] barrel up
[3:42:11 PM ET] 2.8%.
[3:42:12 PM ET] Rent
[3:42:12 PM ET] texas intermediate crude one zero two seventy two a barrel up two point eight percent brent
[3:42:14 PM ET] 115.26 barrel of
[3:42:15 PM ET] Brent.
[3:42:15 PM ET] right
[3:42:15 PM ET] now
[3:42:16 PM ET] by
[3:42:17 PM ET] 1.2%.
[3:42:17 PM ET] one fifteen twenty six barrel of brent up right now by
[3:42:18 PM ET] Fed officials
[3:42:19 PM ET] today left
[3:42:19 PM ET] rates
[3:42:19 PM ET] unchanged.
[3:42:20 PM ET] while
[3:42:21 PM ET] re-explaining
[3:42:21 PM ET] one point two percent fed officials today left
[3:42:21 PM ET] their
[3:42:22 PM ET] commitment
[3:42:22 PM ET] to
[3:42:22 PM ET] containing
[3:42:23 PM ET] inflation without
[3:42:24 PM ET] offering a clear
[3:42:24 PM ET] rates unchanged while reiterating their commitment to containing inflation without
[3:42:25 PM ET] signal that
[3:42:25 PM ET] they
[3:42:26 PM ET] might
[3:42:26 PM ET] raise
[3:42:27 PM ET] rates while offering
[3:42:28 PM ET] a clear signal that they
[3:42:28 PM ET] without offering a clear signal that they might raise rates while offering
[3:42:29 PM ET] might raise rates if
[3:42:30 PM ET] they're
[3:42:30 PM ET] at their next meeting in
[3:42:31 PM ET] December.
[3:42:32 PM ET] And right here
[3:42:32 PM ET] on Bloomberg,
[3:42:32 PM ET] a clear signal that they might raise rates at their next meeting in december and right here
[3:42:32 PM ET] Fed
[3:42:33 PM ET] Chair Kevin
[3:42:33 PM ET] Warsh,
[3:42:34 PM ET] at the
[3:42:34 PM ET] news conference
[3:42:35 PM ET] said
[3:42:35 PM ET] domestic
[3:42:36 PM ET] spending has
[3:42:36 PM ET] been
[3:42:37 PM ET] bloomberg fed chair kevin walsh at the news conference said domestic spending
[3:42:38 PM ET] resilient.
[3:42:39 PM ET] Domestic spending has been
[3:42:41 PM ET] resilient. Productivity
[3:42:41 PM ET] has been resilient domestic
[3:42:42 PM ET] growth is
[3:42:43 PM ET] strong in
[3:42:43 PM ET] capital
[3:42:44 PM ET] investment
[3:42:44 PM ET] spending has been resilient productivity growth is strong in
[3:42:46 PM ET] robust. Job
[3:42:47 PM ET] gains have kept pace with
[3:42:48 PM ET] the
[3:42:48 PM ET] capital investment robust job
[3:42:49 PM ET] workforce and the
[3:42:50 PM ET] unemployment rate has
[3:42:51 PM ET] changed
[3:42:51 PM ET] gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has
[3:42:52 PM ET] little,
[3:42:53 PM ET] but inflation
[3:42:54 PM ET] remains
[3:42:55 PM ET] elevated.
[3:42:55 PM ET] changed little but inflation remains
[3:42:57 PM ET] Head chair Kevin
[3:42:57 PM ET] Wars, FOMC
[3:42:58 PM ET] voting 10
[3:42:58 PM ET] to
[3:42:59 PM ET] to hold its
[3:42:59 PM ET] elevated fed chair kevin walsh fomc voting ten to
[3:43:01 PM ET] benchmark Fed funds
[3:43:01 PM ET] rate in the
[3:43:02 PM ET] a range of
[3:43:03 PM ET] 3.75 to
[3:43:04 PM ET] 4 percent,
[3:43:04 PM ET] to hold its benchmark fed funds rate in a range of three point seven five to four percent
[3:43:05 PM ET] Governor Lisa
[3:43:06 PM ET] Cook and
[3:43:06 PM ET] Cleveland
[3:43:07 PM ET] Fed President.
[3:43:08 PM ET] Beth
[3:43:08 PM ET] Hammack
[3:43:08 PM ET] governor lisa cook and cleveland fed president beth
[3:43:09 PM ET] dissenting
[3:43:09 PM ET] preferring
[3:43:09 PM ET] to raise the
[3:43:10 PM ET] rates
[3:43:10 PM ET] by
[3:43:10 PM ET] a
[3:43:11 PM ET] quarter
[3:43:12 PM ET] point.
[3:43:12 PM ET] Alphabet,
[3:43:13 PM ET] and
[3:43:13 PM ET] dissenting preferring to raise rates by a quarter point alphabet and
[3:43:13 PM ET] Microsoft coming
[3:43:14 PM ET] up
[3:43:14 PM ET] after
[3:43:14 PM ET] the
[3:43:14 PM ET] close
[3:43:14 PM ET] of
[3:43:15 PM ET] Trading Right
[3:43:16 PM ET] now we got
[3:43:16 PM ET] Alphabet
[3:43:16 PM ET] up
[3:43:16 PM ET] one of
[3:43:16 PM ET] the
[3:43:17 PM ET] a
[3:43:17 PM ET] half percent
[3:43:18 PM ET] Microsoft down
[3:43:18 PM ET] coming up after the close of trading right now we got alphabet up one and a half percent
[3:43:18 PM ET] three
[3:43:19 PM ET] tenths of one
[3:43:20 PM ET] percent, and
[3:43:20 PM ET] after
[3:43:20 PM ET] two days.
[3:43:21 PM ET] decades
[3:43:21 PM ET] of
[3:43:22 PM ET] spurning
[3:43:22 PM ET] the
[3:43:22 PM ET] microsoft down three tenths of one percent and after two decades of spurning the idea
[3:43:22 PM ET] idea
[3:43:23 PM ET] Apple has understood
[3:43:23 PM ET] the
[3:43:24 PM ET] an
[3:43:25 PM ET] overhauled
[3:43:25 PM ET] MacBook
[3:43:26 PM ET] Pro that
[3:43:27 PM ET] includes
[3:43:27 PM ET] a
[3:43:27 PM ET] apple has unveiled an overhauled macbook pro
[3:43:27 PM ET] touch
[3:43:28 PM ET] screen.
[3:43:29 PM ET] Meanwhile,
[3:43:29 PM ET] Oracle
[3:43:30 PM ET] shares
[3:43:30 PM ET] their
[3:43:30 PM ET] pushing
[3:43:30 PM ET] higher
[3:43:30 PM ET] that includes a touch screen meanwhile
[3:43:31 PM ET] after
[3:43:31 PM ET] the
[3:43:31 PM ET] company
[3:43:31 PM ET] gave
[3:43:31 PM ET] a
[3:43:32 PM ET] long
[3:43:32 PM ET] long-term
[3:43:33 PM ET] outlook
[3:43:33 PM ET] for free
[3:43:33 PM ET] cash
[3:43:34 PM ET] flow
[3:43:34 PM ET] that
[3:43:34 PM ET] oracle shares they're pushing higher after the company gave a long term outlook for
[3:43:34 PM ET] eased
[3:43:35 PM ET] investor
[3:43:36 PM ET] nerves
[3:43:36 PM ET] about the
[3:43:36 PM ET] potential
[3:43:37 PM ET] payoff from
[3:43:37 PM ET] free cash flow that eased investor nerves about the potential payoff
[3:43:38 PM ET] its
[3:43:38 PM ET] AI
[3:43:39 PM ET] spending.
[3:43:40 PM ET] Recapping S P right
[3:43:41 PM ET] now a lot
[3:43:41 PM ET] of
[3:43:42 PM ET] its ai spending recapping s and p right
[3:43:42 PM ET] 14 points.
[3:43:42 PM ET] with the
[3:43:43 PM ET] 17 minutes to
[3:43:43 PM ET] go
[3:43:44 PM ET] ahead of
[3:43:44 PM ET] the
[3:43:45 PM ET] close. We've got the
[3:43:45 PM ET] now up fourteen points so seventeen minutes to go ahead of the close we've got the two
[3:43:46 PM ET] two-year
[3:43:47 PM ET] 4.72%, the
[3:43:47 PM ET] 10
[3:43:48 PM ET] year
[3:43:49 PM ET] five point zero four
[3:43:50 PM ET] I'm
[3:43:51 PM ET] year four point seven two percent the ten year five point zero four percent
[3:43:51 PM ET] Charlie Pellett, and
[3:43:52 PM ET] that is a
[3:43:53 PM ET] Bloomberg Business
[3:43:55 PM ET] i'm charlie pellet and that is a bloomberg
[3:43:55 PM ET] Flash.
[3:43:56 PM ET] All
[3:43:57 PM ET] right,
[3:43:57 PM ET] Charlie Pellett back
[3:43:58 PM ET] there at
[3:43:58 PM ET] business flash alright
[3:43:59 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:43:59 PM ET] headquarters in New York
[3:44:00 PM ET] City. We are of course
[3:44:01 PM ET] at Schwab Impact
[3:44:02 PM ET] charlie pellet back there at bloomberg headquarters in new york city we are
[3:44:02 PM ET] 2026 here in
[3:44:04 PM ET] Boston.
[3:44:05 PM ET] And we should point out that
[3:44:06 PM ET] of course at schwab impact twenty twenty six here in boston and
[3:44:06 PM ET] last
[3:44:07 PM ET] evening they made
[3:44:08 PM ET] an
[3:44:09 PM ET] announcement.
[3:44:10 PM ET] They announced
[3:44:10 PM ET] National RIA Day.
[3:44:11 PM ET] It's a
[3:44:11 PM ET] should point out that last evening they made an announcement they
[3:44:12 PM ET] first annual day
[3:44:13 PM ET] celebrating independent
[3:44:14 PM ET] registered investment
[3:44:14 PM ET] announced national ria day it's a first annual day celebrating independent
[3:44:15 PM ET] advisors, and that
[3:44:15 PM ET] includes
[3:44:16 PM ET] some
[3:44:16 PM ET] the more than
[3:44:17 PM ET] 17,000 independent
[3:44:17 PM ET] registered investment advisors and that includes the more than seventeen
[3:44:18 PM ET] registered
[3:44:18 PM ET] investment
[3:44:18 PM ET] advisors that
[3:44:19 PM ET] work
[3:44:19 PM ET] with
[3:44:20 PM ET] Schwab, working
[3:44:20 PM ET] to make sure that we have a lot
[3:44:21 PM ET] make
[3:44:21 PM ET] sure
[3:44:21 PM ET] that
[3:44:21 PM ET] those
[3:44:21 PM ET] are
[3:44:22 PM ET] independent registered investment advisors that work with schwab
[3:44:22 PM ET] RIAs have been able to do
[3:44:22 PM ET] exactly the
[3:44:22 PM ET] what they're
[3:44:22 PM ET] they
[3:44:23 PM ET] need is
[3:44:23 PM ET] Lisa
[3:44:24 PM ET] Salve.
[3:44:24 PM ET] She's head of
[3:44:24 PM ET] business
[3:44:25 PM ET] working to make sure that those rias have exactly what they need is lisa
[3:44:25 PM ET] consulting and
[3:44:26 PM ET] education at
[3:44:26 PM ET] Chawab
[3:44:27 PM ET] Advisor
[3:44:28 PM ET] Services. Good to see
[3:44:28 PM ET] salvi she's head of business consulting and education at schwab advisor services good to see
[3:44:28 PM ET] you
[3:44:29 PM ET] again. How are
[3:44:30 PM ET] you?
[3:44:30 PM ET] I'm good. How are
[3:44:30 PM ET] you? It's
[3:44:31 PM ET] great to see
[3:44:31 PM ET] you
[3:44:32 PM ET] here.
[3:44:32 PM ET] It's good to have you
[3:44:33 PM ET] here.
[3:44:33 PM ET] you again how are you i'm good how are you it's great to see you here it's good to have you here
[3:44:34 PM ET] And I want to ask
[3:44:34 PM ET] about a
[3:44:35 PM ET] national
[3:44:35 PM ET] RIA day.
[3:44:37 PM ET] Tell me about
[3:44:37 PM ET] the
[3:44:37 PM ET] culmination because it's
[3:44:38 PM ET] got
[3:44:38 PM ET] a
[3:44:38 PM ET] great kind
[3:44:38 PM ET] i wanna ask about a national ria day tell me about
[3:44:38 PM ET] of
[3:44:39 PM ET] back
[3:44:39 PM ET] history, a
[3:44:40 PM ET] grassroots
[3:44:41 PM ET] history. Tell us about
[3:44:41 PM ET] that.
[3:44:41 PM ET] it.
[3:44:42 PM ET] the culmination because it's got a great kind of back history a grassroots history tell us about that does
[3:44:42 PM ET] sure does. This is an idea that
[3:44:42 PM ET] was
[3:44:43 PM ET] actually born
[3:44:44 PM ET] at
[3:44:44 PM ET] Impact about two years
[3:44:45 PM ET] ago.
[3:44:46 PM ET] We always have students
[3:44:47 PM ET] this is an idea that was actually born at impact about two years ago we always have students
[3:44:47 PM ET] here.
[3:44:48 PM ET] here
[3:44:48 PM ET] we
[3:44:48 PM ET] always love to get
[3:44:49 PM ET] them
[3:44:49 PM ET] with
[3:44:50 PM ET] advisors
[3:44:51 PM ET] always love to get them with advisers and
[3:44:51 PM ET] and one of
[3:44:52 PM ET] the
[3:44:52 PM ET] professors
[3:44:53 PM ET] who chaperones the
[3:44:54 PM ET] students wanted
[3:44:56 PM ET] to
[3:44:56 PM ET] bring that back to
[3:44:56 PM ET] one of the professors who chaperones the students wanted to bring that
[3:44:57 PM ET] campus.
[3:44:58 PM ET] so the first
[3:44:58 PM ET] national
[3:44:59 PM ET] day
[3:45:00 PM ET] was
[3:45:01 PM ET] born.
[3:45:01 PM ET] back to campus so the first nash the first ra day was day was born
[3:45:01 PM ET] and
[3:45:02 PM ET] they
[3:45:02 PM ET] had
[3:45:02 PM ET] signs they
[3:45:02 PM ET] had
[3:45:03 PM ET] advisors on
[3:45:04 PM ET] campus.
[3:45:05 PM ET] students
[3:45:05 PM ET] were learning more
[3:45:06 PM ET] about RA
[3:45:06 PM ET] and they had signs they had advisers on campus
[3:45:07 PM ET] profession.
[3:45:08 PM ET] That kind of
[3:45:08 PM ET] took off
[3:45:09 PM ET] organically. More and more
[3:45:09 PM ET] students were learning more about ra profession that kind of took off organically
[3:45:10 PM ET] universities started to
[3:45:11 PM ET] host
[3:45:11 PM ET] more and more universities started to host them
[3:45:11 PM ET] and it got
[3:45:12 PM ET] us thinking, you
[3:45:12 PM ET] know
[3:45:13 PM ET] what?
[3:45:14 PM ET] We've
[3:45:14 PM ET] never had
[3:45:15 PM ET] a holiday, a day
[3:45:16 PM ET] to
[3:45:17 PM ET] celebrate
[3:45:17 PM ET] independence.
[3:45:17 PM ET] it got us thinking you know what we've never had a holiday
[3:45:18 PM ET] and so we created
[3:45:19 PM ET] one.
[3:45:20 PM ET] So, February
[3:45:20 PM ET] a day to celebrate independence and so we created
[3:45:21 PM ET] 17th will be
[3:45:22 PM ET] our
[3:45:22 PM ET] very first
[3:45:23 PM ET] national RAA day.
[3:45:23 PM ET] one so february seventeenth will be our very first
[3:45:24 PM ET] but it's going to go beyond
[3:45:25 PM ET] universities.
[3:45:26 PM ET] We'll
[3:45:26 PM ET] have probably about at
[3:45:26 PM ET] national raa day but it's gonna go beyond universities we'll have
[3:45:27 PM ET] least 30
[3:45:28 PM ET] universities
[3:45:29 PM ET] celebrating, but we're also going
[3:45:29 PM ET] to
[3:45:30 PM ET] be
[3:45:30 PM ET] in
[3:45:30 PM ET] probably about at least thirty universities celebrating
[3:45:31 PM ET] DC we'll bring
[3:45:31 PM ET] the close to
[3:45:31 PM ET] closing
[3:45:32 PM ET] bell and
[3:45:32 PM ET] we really hope we can be able to be able to be
[3:45:32 PM ET] see
[3:45:33 PM ET] but we're also gonna be in dc we'll ring the closing bell and we really hope to see
[3:45:34 PM ET] see
[3:45:34 PM ET] every
[3:45:34 PM ET] single
[3:45:35 PM ET] RAA
[3:45:35 PM ET] celebrating in their
[3:45:36 PM ET] neighborhood and for
[3:45:36 PM ET] this to
[3:45:37 PM ET] take
[3:45:37 PM ET] on so we can
[3:45:38 PM ET] every single ria celebrating in their neighborhood and for this to take on so we can have
[3:45:38 PM ET] have a
[3:45:39 PM ET] unified
[3:45:39 PM ET] voice to
[3:45:40 PM ET] celebrate
[3:45:41 PM ET] RIAs. You know what I think is
[3:45:42 PM ET] notable
[3:45:42 PM ET] about
[3:45:43 PM ET] this is
[3:45:43 PM ET] just
[3:45:43 PM ET] the
[3:45:43 PM ET] a unified voice to celebrate rias you know what i think is notable
[3:45:43 PM ET] idea
[3:45:44 PM ET] that
[3:45:44 PM ET] in
[3:45:44 PM ET] recent
[3:45:45 PM ET] years so
[3:45:45 PM ET] much
[3:45:45 PM ET] has
[3:45:46 PM ET] changed
[3:45:46 PM ET] about
[3:45:46 PM ET] the
[3:45:47 PM ET] about this is is just the idea that in recent years so much has changed
[3:45:47 PM ET] industry.
[3:45:47 PM ET] So the
[3:45:47 PM ET] folks who, I don't
[3:45:48 PM ET] even want
[3:45:48 PM ET] to call
[3:45:48 PM ET] them
[3:45:48 PM ET] folks, the kids are going to be able to do
[3:45:49 PM ET] The
[3:45:49 PM ET] kids who
[3:45:49 PM ET] about the industry so the folks who i don't even wanna call them folks the kids
[3:45:50 PM ET] are
[3:45:50 PM ET] in
[3:45:50 PM ET] college right
[3:45:52 PM ET] now.
[3:45:52 PM ET] who are interested in
[3:45:53 PM ET] this as
[3:45:53 PM ET] a
[3:45:54 PM ET] career,
[3:45:54 PM ET] are looking
[3:45:54 PM ET] at
[3:45:55 PM ET] potentially a
[3:45:55 PM ET] who are in college right now who are interested in this as a career
[3:45:56 PM ET] completely different
[3:45:57 PM ET] landscape and completely
[3:45:58 PM ET] different needs from climate
[3:45:58 PM ET] are looking at potentially a completely different landscape
[3:45:59 PM ET] clients.
[3:45:59 PM ET] and completely different needs from clients
[3:45:59 PM ET] than
[3:46:00 PM ET] not even a
[3:46:00 PM ET] generation
[3:46:01 PM ET] ago.
[3:46:02 PM ET] than you know, than
[3:46:02 PM ET] five years
[3:46:03 PM ET] ago.
[3:46:03 PM ET] it's
[3:46:04 PM ET] wild, isn't it,
[3:46:04 PM ET] than not even a generation ago than you know than five years ago
[3:46:04 PM ET] tim i mean
[3:46:05 PM ET] the pace of
[3:46:05 PM ET] change has
[3:46:06 PM ET] never
[3:46:06 PM ET] been
[3:46:07 PM ET] faster for all of
[3:46:07 PM ET] it's wild isn't it tim i mean the pace of change has never been past past
[3:46:08 PM ET] us.
[3:46:09 PM ET] And when I look at our
[3:46:10 PM ET] benchmarking data, we
[3:46:11 PM ET] need
[3:46:11 PM ET] for all of us and when i look at our benchmark
[3:46:12 PM ET] 70,000
[3:46:13 PM ET] more people to
[3:46:13 PM ET] data we need seventy thousand more
[3:46:14 PM ET] join the RA industry over the
[3:46:15 PM ET] next
[3:46:15 PM ET] five
[3:46:16 PM ET] years to keep up with the growth
[3:46:17 PM ET] we're experiencing,
[3:46:17 PM ET] right
[3:46:18 PM ET] now.
[3:46:18 PM ET] people to join the ra industry over the next five years to keep up with the
[3:46:19 PM ET] Where's that growth coming from?
[3:46:20 PM ET] What growth?
[3:46:21 PM ET] Who is
[3:46:21 PM ET] Who are the
[3:46:21 PM ET] growth we're experiencing right now where's that growth coming from the growth
[3:46:22 PM ET] people
[3:46:22 PM ET] who who is who is the who are the people
[3:46:23 PM ET] providing
[3:46:23 PM ET] that growth?
[3:46:24 PM ET] Just to keep up with the
[3:46:25 PM ET] organic
[3:46:25 PM ET] growth
[3:46:26 PM ET] and the inorganic
[3:46:27 PM ET] providing that growth just to keep up with the organic growth
[3:46:27 PM ET] growth of
[3:46:27 PM ET] the
[3:46:28 PM ET] RAs
[3:46:28 PM ET] are
[3:46:29 PM ET] experiencing
[3:46:29 PM ET] today.
[3:46:31 PM ET] So it's not just the
[3:46:31 PM ET] boom in wealth that's being
[3:46:31 PM ET] and the inorganic growth that the rias are experiencing today so it's not
[3:46:32 PM ET] created in certain
[3:46:33 PM ET] parts of this
[3:46:33 PM ET] country as a result
[3:46:34 PM ET] of
[3:46:34 PM ET] the AI
[3:46:35 PM ET] boom that is being
[3:46:35 PM ET] just the the boom in wealth that's being created in certain parts of this country as a result of the ai boom
[3:46:36 PM ET] factored into it.
[3:46:37 PM ET] own country.
[3:46:38 PM ET] business.
[3:46:38 PM ET] is. Certainly, take all that growth. This is
[3:46:39 PM ET] everywhere.
[3:46:40 PM ET] Yes, yes, yes,
[3:46:40 PM ET] are is being factored into us well will certainly take all that growth this is everywhere
[3:46:41 PM ET] yes, and
[3:46:41 PM ET] and when
[3:46:42 PM ET] I give you that
[3:46:42 PM ET] number
[3:46:43 PM ET] 70,000, that's not
[3:46:43 PM ET] even
[3:46:43 PM ET] taking
[3:46:43 PM ET] yes yes yes yes and yes and when i give you that number seventy thousand that's not
[3:46:44 PM ET] you into
[3:46:44 PM ET] account a true
[3:46:45 PM ET] attrition.
[3:46:46 PM ET] retirement,
[3:46:47 PM ET] or
[3:46:47 PM ET] newly
[3:46:47 PM ET] formed
[3:46:48 PM ET] even taking into account attrition retirement or newly formed firms but
[3:46:48 PM ET] firms,
[3:46:48 PM ET] but
[3:46:48 PM ET] it's
[3:46:49 PM ET] also not
[3:46:49 PM ET] taking
[3:46:49 PM ET] in
[3:46:50 PM ET] into
[3:46:50 PM ET] account
[3:46:50 PM ET] AI.
[3:46:51 PM ET] and
[3:46:51 PM ET] the
[3:46:51 PM ET] implications
[3:46:51 PM ET] that's going to
[3:46:52 PM ET] have.
[3:46:53 PM ET] Lisa, that's where I want to
[3:46:53 PM ET] it's also not taking into account ai and the implications that's gonna
[3:46:53 PM ET] go because I
[3:46:53 PM ET] think
[3:46:54 PM ET] there's
[3:46:54 PM ET] lot
[3:46:54 PM ET] a
[3:46:55 PM ET] of
[3:46:55 PM ET] the younger
[3:46:56 PM ET] generation wondering
[3:46:56 PM ET] about
[3:46:57 PM ET] how
[3:46:57 PM ET] does AI
[3:46:57 PM ET] lisa that's where i wanna go because i think there's a lot of the younger generation wondering about
[3:46:58 PM ET] impact our
[3:46:58 PM ET] world and
[3:46:58 PM ET] job
[3:46:59 PM ET] opportunities going
[3:47:00 PM ET] on?
[3:47:00 PM ET] Absolutely.
[3:47:01 PM ET] So, how much of
[3:47:01 PM ET] how does ai impact our world and job opportunities going forward so how much of it
[3:47:01 PM ET] it would
[3:47:01 PM ET] when
[3:47:01 PM ET] you're out
[3:47:02 PM ET] at
[3:47:02 PM ET] on
[3:47:03 PM ET] campuses
[3:47:03 PM ET] and
[3:47:03 PM ET] talking
[3:47:03 PM ET] with
[3:47:04 PM ET] students or
[3:47:04 PM ET] talking
[3:47:05 PM ET] with
[3:47:05 PM ET] academia
[3:47:06 PM ET] out on campuses and talking with students or talking with academia
[3:47:06 PM ET] about
[3:47:07 PM ET] explaining how AI
[3:47:08 PM ET] what the role
[3:47:08 PM ET] will
[3:47:09 PM ET] be
[3:47:09 PM ET] in what we're
[3:47:10 PM ET] surrounded
[3:47:10 PM ET] about explaining how ai what the role will be
[3:47:11 PM ET] with, what it will
[3:47:11 PM ET] be in
[3:47:11 PM ET] the, you
[3:47:12 PM ET] management.
[3:47:13 PM ET] of.
[3:47:14 PM ET] investment
[3:47:14 PM ET] what we're surrounded with what it will be in the you know
[3:47:15 PM ET] advisory and management.
[3:47:16 PM ET] of
[3:47:16 PM ET] of of you know investment advisory and and management of money
[3:47:17 PM ET] money.
[3:47:18 PM ET] It's the conversation
[3:47:19 PM ET] everyone's
[3:47:19 PM ET] having,
[3:47:20 PM ET] right? All of
[3:47:20 PM ET] us.
[3:47:21 PM ET] It's
[3:47:21 PM ET] shifting
[3:47:21 PM ET] it's it's the conversation everyone's having right all of us it's shifting
[3:47:22 PM ET] everything I
[3:47:22 PM ET] think
[3:47:22 PM ET] everybody's
[3:47:23 PM ET] job is gonna change a
[3:47:23 PM ET] little
[3:47:24 PM ET] bit.
[3:47:25 PM ET] and we are
[3:47:25 PM ET] actively
[3:47:26 PM ET] everything i think everybody's job is gonna change a little bit and we are
[3:47:26 PM ET] having
[3:47:26 PM ET] that
[3:47:27 PM ET] conversation with
[3:47:28 PM ET] universities.
[3:47:29 PM ET] We've been very
[3:47:29 PM ET] active
[3:47:29 PM ET] in helping us to do
[3:47:30 PM ET] actively having that conversation with universities we've been very active
[3:47:31 PM ET] in helping to
[3:47:31 PM ET] to
[3:47:31 PM ET] find
[3:47:32 PM ET] found
[3:47:32 PM ET] and
[3:47:33 PM ET] grow
[3:47:33 PM ET] CFP
[3:47:34 PM ET] program
[3:47:34 PM ET] certified
[3:47:35 PM ET] financial
[3:47:35 PM ET] planner
[3:47:36 PM ET] programs that you can
[3:47:36 PM ET] find found and grow cfp programs certified financial
[3:47:36 PM ET] University of
[3:47:37 PM ET] for
[3:47:37 PM ET] over a
[3:47:38 PM ET] decade.
[3:47:39 PM ET] and
[3:47:39 PM ET] planner programs at universities for over a decade and
[3:47:39 PM ET] those
[3:47:40 PM ET] universities
[3:47:40 PM ET] really want
[3:47:41 PM ET] to
[3:47:41 PM ET] produce
[3:47:41 PM ET] the
[3:47:41 PM ET] talent
[3:47:42 PM ET] that
[3:47:42 PM ET] advisors
[3:47:43 PM ET] and
[3:47:43 PM ET] companies
[3:47:43 PM ET] want
[3:47:44 PM ET] to
[3:47:44 PM ET] those universities really wanna produce the talent that advise
[3:47:44 PM ET] hire.
[3:47:45 PM ET] So we're having that
[3:47:45 PM ET] conversation
[3:47:46 PM ET] now.
[3:47:47 PM ET] We know things
[3:47:47 PM ET] are
[3:47:47 PM ET] going
[3:47:47 PM ET] to
[3:47:47 PM ET] and companies want to hire so we're having that conversation now
[3:47:48 PM ET] shift.
[3:47:48 PM ET] Nobody
[3:47:49 PM ET] knows exactly
[3:47:50 PM ET] how,
[3:47:50 PM ET] but
[3:47:50 PM ET] we
[3:47:51 PM ET] know
[3:47:51 PM ET] we know things are gonna shift nobody knows exactly how but we know
[3:47:51 PM ET] that the
[3:47:52 PM ET] technical
[3:47:52 PM ET] skills
[3:47:53 PM ET] that the technical skills are
[3:47:53 PM ET] are
[3:47:54 PM ET] being
[3:47:55 PM ET] augmented
[3:47:55 PM ET] by technical
[3:47:57 PM ET] already.
[3:47:57 PM ET] what kind of
[3:47:58 PM ET] like, in terms
[3:47:58 PM ET] being augmented by technology already what kind of
[3:47:58 PM ET] of what
[3:47:59 PM ET] instruction they're doing at
[3:48:00 PM ET] schools, that's
[3:48:00 PM ET] changing as
[3:48:01 PM ET] a
[3:48:01 PM ET] as
[3:48:01 PM ET] it
[3:48:02 PM ET] is, but we're
[3:48:02 PM ET] like in terms of what instruction they're doing at schools that's changing as a
[3:48:03 PM ET] also
[3:48:03 PM ET] seeing when I
[3:48:04 PM ET] talked
[3:48:04 PM ET] to
[3:48:04 PM ET] advisors and have
[3:48:05 PM ET] that
[3:48:05 PM ET] conversation, which I
[3:48:05 PM ET] as it it is but we're also seeing and when i talk to
[3:48:06 PM ET] do every
[3:48:07 PM ET] week, they're
[3:48:08 PM ET] very
[3:48:08 PM ET] interested
[3:48:09 PM ET] in
[3:48:09 PM ET] advisers and have that conversation which i do every week they're very
[3:48:09 PM ET] students
[3:48:10 PM ET] focusing
[3:48:10 PM ET] on
[3:48:10 PM ET] soft skills
[3:48:11 PM ET] too.
[3:48:11 PM ET] interested in students focusing on soft skills too
[3:48:12 PM ET] and the people
[3:48:13 PM ET] skills and
[3:48:13 PM ET] the
[3:48:14 PM ET] skills
[3:48:14 PM ET] I
[3:48:15 PM ET] know.
[3:48:16 PM ET] So it's great to hear
[3:48:16 PM ET] that
[3:48:16 PM ET] and the people skills and the skills thank god i know so it's great to hear that
[3:48:17 PM ET] because
[3:48:18 PM ET] you're talking
[3:48:18 PM ET] to two liberal
[3:48:19 PM ET] arts
[3:48:20 PM ET] majors. That's why it's great to hear that.
[3:48:22 PM ET] I know. So, those are the things that are
[3:48:22 PM ET] because because you're talking to two liberal arts majors that's why it's great to hear that no those exactly
[3:48:24 PM ET] And that's, you know, when you look at
[3:48:25 PM ET] the types
[3:48:26 PM ET] of AI that are starting to
[3:48:27 PM ET] come into
[3:48:28 PM ET] advisory
[3:48:28 PM ET] that's you know when when you look at the time types of ai that are
[3:48:29 PM ET] firms. They're using
[3:48:29 PM ET] it
[3:48:30 PM ET] in
[3:48:30 PM ET] starting to come into advisory firms they're using it in
[3:48:31 PM ET] administrative
[3:48:32 PM ET] operations about
[3:48:33 PM ET] half of firms are using
[3:48:34 PM ET] it in their
[3:48:35 PM ET] marketing
[3:48:35 PM ET] administrative operations about half of firms are using it in their marketing
[3:48:36 PM ET] strategy.
[3:48:37 PM ET] but where it's not going to
[3:48:38 PM ET] come
[3:48:38 PM ET] in as
[3:48:38 PM ET] much
[3:48:38 PM ET] is
[3:48:39 PM ET] in
[3:48:39 PM ET] that human
[3:48:39 PM ET] strategy but where it's not gonna come in as
[3:48:40 PM ET] relationship, the
[3:48:40 PM ET] trust
[3:48:41 PM ET] that's even more
[3:48:41 PM ET] value than I
[3:48:41 PM ET] ever
[3:48:42 PM ET] before and they
[3:48:43 PM ET] much as in that human relationship the trust that's even more value than ever before
[3:48:43 PM ET] want when
[3:48:43 PM ET] they
[3:48:43 PM ET] hire young
[3:48:44 PM ET] people
[3:48:44 PM ET] for
[3:48:44 PM ET] them to
[3:48:45 PM ET] have
[3:48:45 PM ET] the
[3:48:45 PM ET] ability
[3:48:46 PM ET] to
[3:48:46 PM ET] do
[3:48:46 PM ET] those
[3:48:47 PM ET] things.
[3:48:47 PM ET] and they want when they hire young people for them to have the ability to do those things you guys are the
[3:48:47 PM ET] You guys did a study at
[3:48:47 PM ET] the
[3:48:48 PM ET] 2026 independence.
[3:48:49 PM ET] Advisory
[3:48:50 PM ET] or
[3:48:50 PM ET] Advisor
[3:48:51 PM ET] outlook
[3:48:52 PM ET] And
[3:48:52 PM ET] it was
[3:48:52 PM ET] study the twenty twenty six independent advisory or
[3:48:53 PM ET] amazed
[3:48:54 PM ET] Advisors
[3:48:54 PM ET] placing
[3:48:54 PM ET] greater
[3:48:55 PM ET] advisor outlook study and i was amazed advisers placing greater well
[3:48:55 PM ET] weight
[3:48:56 PM ET] on
[3:48:56 PM ET] relationship and
[3:48:57 PM ET] emotional
[3:48:57 PM ET] intelligence.
[3:48:57 PM ET] skills
[3:48:57 PM ET] but
[3:48:58 PM ET] with
[3:48:58 PM ET] hiring
[3:48:58 PM ET] 33%.
[3:48:59 PM ET] weight on relationship and emotional intelligence skills when hiring thirty three percent yeah
[3:48:59 PM ET] Prioritizing
[3:49:00 PM ET] judgment,
[3:49:00 PM ET] critical
[3:49:01 PM ET] thinking,
[3:49:01 PM ET] 30%.
[3:49:02 PM ET] Looking for candidates who are
[3:49:03 PM ET] comfortable
[3:49:03 PM ET] and
[3:49:04 PM ET] fluent
[3:49:04 PM ET] with
[3:49:04 PM ET] prioritizing judgment critical thinking thirty percent looking for candidates who are comfortable and fluent
[3:49:04 PM ET] AI.
[3:49:05 PM ET] 26%, like it
[3:49:06 PM ET] matters.
[3:49:07 PM ET] It
[3:49:07 PM ET] certainly
[3:49:07 PM ET] matters.
[3:49:08 PM ET] And some of the
[3:49:08 PM ET] talent
[3:49:08 PM ET] programs that
[3:49:08 PM ET] with ai twenty six percent like matters it's it it
[3:49:09 PM ET] we
[3:49:09 PM ET] provide to
[3:49:10 PM ET] advisors,
[3:49:11 PM ET] leadership.
[3:49:11 PM ET] matters and some of the talent programs that we provide to advisers leadership
[3:49:12 PM ET] new
[3:49:12 PM ET] people leader
[3:49:13 PM ET] programs. Those are some of our
[3:49:14 PM ET] most
[3:49:15 PM ET] new people leader programs those are some of our most popular
[3:49:16 PM ET] popular.
[3:49:17 PM ET] So, what's your
[3:49:18 PM ET] advice
[3:49:18 PM ET] to somebody who's
[3:49:18 PM ET] either
[3:49:19 PM ET] got
[3:49:19 PM ET] so what's your advice to somebody who's either got
[3:49:19 PM ET] a
[3:49:20 PM ET] student like
[3:49:20 PM ET] thinking
[3:49:21 PM ET] about
[3:49:21 PM ET] a student like thinking about
[3:49:22 PM ET] like where
[3:49:22 PM ET] our careers
[3:49:23 PM ET] going.
[3:49:23 PM ET] I have a 23 year
[3:49:24 PM ET] who's
[3:49:25 PM ET] watching.
[3:49:26 PM ET] degree in
[3:49:26 PM ET] like where our career is going i have a twenty three year old and yeah who's watching
[3:49:27 PM ET] economics and just wondering, just
[3:49:27 PM ET] got
[3:49:28 PM ET] about 30 seconds
[3:49:29 PM ET] here. I would just
[3:49:29 PM ET] say
[3:49:30 PM ET] to everyone and every
[3:49:30 PM ET] the degree in economics and just wondering just got about thirty seconds
[3:49:31 PM ET] time I'm in front
[3:49:32 PM ET] of
[3:49:32 PM ET] a
[3:49:32 PM ET] crowd, I would
[3:49:33 PM ET] always
[3:49:33 PM ET] here i would just say to everyone and every time i'm i'm in front of a a crowd i
[3:49:33 PM ET] say set
[3:49:34 PM ET] yourself a
[3:49:35 PM ET] goal of becoming AI
[3:49:36 PM ET] fluent no matter what you're
[3:49:36 PM ET] job
[3:49:37 PM ET] is.
[3:49:37 PM ET] always say set yourself a goal of becoming ai fluent no matter what your job is
[3:49:38 PM ET] no one can do it for
[3:49:39 PM ET] you. You can take
[3:49:40 PM ET] instruction. I've
[3:49:41 PM ET] taken
[3:49:41 PM ET] classes, but
[3:49:42 PM ET] nothing
[3:49:42 PM ET] yeah no one can do it for you you can take instruction i've taken
[3:49:42 PM ET] classes but nothing
[3:49:43 PM ET] can
[3:49:44 PM ET] replace
[3:49:45 PM ET] just rolling
[3:49:46 PM ET] up
[3:49:46 PM ET] your sleeves and trying to
[3:49:47 PM ET] build
[3:49:47 PM ET] something. Go build an app
[3:49:47 PM ET] can replace just rolling up your sleeves and trying to build something go build
[3:49:48 PM ET] today. I
[3:49:49 PM ET] promise
[3:49:49 PM ET] you you can do
[3:49:50 PM ET] it
[3:49:50 PM ET] Just tell it what you
[3:49:51 PM ET] want it to do.
[3:49:52 PM ET] I've felt
[3:49:52 PM ET] an app today i promise you you can do it just tell it what you want it to do i built
[3:49:52 PM ET] so
[3:49:52 PM ET] many
[3:49:53 PM ET] amazing
[3:49:53 PM ET] things
[3:49:54 PM ET] and you'll be
[3:49:55 PM ET] astounded at what you've
[3:49:56 PM ET] you can
[3:49:56 PM ET] actually
[3:49:56 PM ET] it i've built so many amazing things and you'll be astounded of what you can actually
[3:49:57 PM ET] do.
[3:49:57 PM ET] Good
[3:49:57 PM ET] stuff.
[3:49:57 PM ET] very
[3:49:58 PM ET] relevant. Lisa, thank
[3:49:59 PM ET] you. Good to catch
[3:49:59 PM ET] up. Thank you,
[3:50:00 PM ET] so
[3:50:00 PM ET] much.
[3:50:00 PM ET] She says
[3:50:01 PM ET] a
[3:50:01 PM ET] salvie. She's head of
[3:50:01 PM ET] business
[3:50:01 PM ET] do good stuff very relevant lisa thank you good to catch up thank you so much she says
[3:50:01 PM ET] consulting
[3:50:02 PM ET] and
[3:50:02 PM ET] education
[3:50:02 PM ET] at
[3:50:03 PM ET] Shawab
[3:50:03 PM ET] Advisor
[3:50:04 PM ET] Services. You know what we
[3:50:04 PM ET] got
[3:50:05 PM ET] coming?
[3:50:05 PM ET] What? What's
[3:50:05 PM ET] coming?
[3:50:05 PM ET] she's head of business consulting and education at schwab advisor services you know what we got coming a what
[3:50:06 PM ET] Big
[3:50:06 PM ET] earnings. Oh,
[3:50:07 PM ET] okay.
[3:50:08 PM ET] Stick
[3:50:08 PM ET] around,
[3:50:08 PM ET] everybody. We're
[3:50:09 PM ET] back
[3:50:09 PM ET] in a
[3:50:10 PM ET] what's coming big earnings oh okay stick around everybody we're
[3:50:10 PM ET] moment.
[3:50:13 PM ET] Bloomberg is now on your
[3:50:13 PM ET] dashboard
[3:50:14 PM ET] with Apple
[3:50:14 PM ET] back in a moment bloomberg is now on your dashboard with
[3:50:14 PM ET] Car playing
[3:50:14 PM ET] and
[3:50:15 PM ET] Android
[3:50:15 PM ET] Auto. Do you want
[3:50:15 PM ET] access to the
[3:50:16 PM ET] every
[3:50:16 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:50:17 PM ET] podcast?
[3:50:18 PM ET] Live audio
[3:50:18 PM ET] feeds and
[3:50:18 PM ET] headlines
[3:50:18 PM ET] at
[3:50:18 PM ET] the
[3:50:18 PM ET] click of a
[3:50:18 PM ET] apple carplay and android auto do you want access to every bloomberg podcast
[3:50:19 PM ET] button down
[3:50:19 PM ET] Download the
[3:50:20 PM ET] latest version
[3:50:20 PM ET] of
[3:50:20 PM ET] the
[3:50:21 PM ET] Bloomberg Business
[3:50:21 PM ET] App
[3:50:22 PM ET] audio feeds and headlines at the click of a button download the latest version of the bloomberg business
[3:50:22 PM ET] Now.
[3:50:26 PM ET] app now
[3:50:28 PM ET] Global
[3:50:28 PM ET] market
[3:50:28 PM ET] News
[3:50:29 PM ET] changes in an
[3:50:30 PM ET] instant.
[3:50:30 PM ET] global market news changes in an instant so
[3:50:30 PM ET] So tell
[3:50:31 PM ET] miss
[3:50:31 PM ET] a
[3:50:31 PM ET] minute.
[3:50:32 PM ET] Listen to Bloomberg
[3:50:33 PM ET] Radio
[3:50:33 PM ET] anytime
[3:50:34 PM ET] anywhere around the
[3:50:35 PM ET] world.
[3:50:35 PM ET] don't miss a minute listen to bloomberg radio anytime anywhere around the world
[3:50:36 PM ET] On the iHeartRadio
[3:50:36 PM ET] app. Tune
[3:50:37 PM ET] in the Bloomberg Day.
[3:50:38 PM ET] Business App.
[3:50:38 PM ET] Serious
[3:50:39 PM ET] XM
[3:50:40 PM ET] 121 and the Bloomberg
[3:50:40 PM ET] on the iheartradio app tune in the bloomberg business app siriusxm
[3:50:40 PM ET] Business
[3:50:41 PM ET] one twenty one and the bloomberg terminal
[3:50:42 PM ET] Terminal. This is a Bloomberg
[3:50:43 PM ET] Bunny
[3:50:44 PM ET] Minute. Stocks have been
[3:50:45 PM ET] fluctuating as
[3:50:46 PM ET] investors look at the Feds to
[3:50:46 PM ET] this is a bloomberg money minute stocks have been
[3:50:47 PM ET] decision to keep
[3:50:47 PM ET] interest
[3:50:48 PM ET] rates unchanged.
[3:50:49 PM ET] with two Fed
[3:50:50 PM ET] fluctuating as investors look at the fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged with
[3:50:50 PM ET] governors
[3:50:51 PM ET] dissenting. Investors
[3:50:52 PM ET] also keyed into
[3:50:53 PM ET] Alphabet and
[3:50:54 PM ET] Microsoft reporting
[3:50:54 PM ET] two fed governors dissenting investors also keyed in
[3:50:55 PM ET] quarterly results
[3:50:56 PM ET] today. Oracle
[3:50:57 PM ET] shares jumping after
[3:50:57 PM ET] to alphabet and microsoft reporting quarterly results
[3:50:57 PM ET] it
[3:50:59 PM ET] gave a
[3:51:00 PM ET] long-term outlook for
[3:51:01 PM ET] free cash
[3:51:01 PM ET] today oracle shares jumping after it gave a long term outlook for free cash
[3:51:02 PM ET] flow that eased
[3:51:03 PM ET] investor nerves about the
[3:51:04 PM ET] potential payoff from its
[3:51:05 PM ET] AI.
[3:51:06 PM ET] spending.
[3:51:06 PM ET] flow that eased investor nerves about the potential payoff from its ai spending so
[3:51:06 PM ET] Stellantis, CEO of the
[3:51:07 PM ET] says his
[3:51:08 PM ET] turnaround
[3:51:08 PM ET] plan is
[3:51:08 PM ET] working with the United
[3:51:09 PM ET] war
[3:51:10 PM ET] rooms set
[3:51:10 PM ET] up
[3:51:10 PM ET] to take a look at the
[3:51:10 PM ET] ceo says his turnaround plan is working with war room
[3:51:11 PM ET] tackle quality
[3:51:11 PM ET] problems at the end of the
[3:51:12 PM ET] and
[3:51:12 PM ET] measures
[3:51:12 PM ET] to
[3:51:13 PM ET] reap
[3:51:14 PM ET] efficiencies.
[3:51:14 PM ET] set up to tackle quality problems and measures to reap
[3:51:14 PM ET] Company using
[3:51:15 PM ET] AI.
[3:51:15 PM ET] to
[3:51:15 PM ET] help
[3:51:15 PM ET] fix
[3:51:16 PM ET] vehicle
[3:51:17 PM ET] issues and
[3:51:17 PM ET] is coupled with the
[3:51:18 PM ET] this
[3:51:18 PM ET] efficiencies company using ai to help fix vehicle issues
[3:51:18 PM ET] push
[3:51:18 PM ET] with
[3:51:18 PM ET] broad
[3:51:19 PM ET] measures
[3:51:19 PM ET] to
[3:51:19 PM ET] save
[3:51:20 PM ET] The mainstream is a very good
[3:51:21 PM ET] An Apple unveiling
[3:51:21 PM ET] an
[3:51:22 PM ET] and has coupled this push with broad measures to save cost
[3:51:22 PM ET] overhauled
[3:51:22 PM ET] MacBook
[3:51:23 PM ET] Pro
[3:51:23 PM ET] that
[3:51:23 PM ET] includes
[3:51:23 PM ET] a
[3:51:24 PM ET] touch
[3:51:25 PM ET] and apple unveiling an overhauled macbook pro that includes a touch
[3:51:25 PM ET] screen.
[3:51:25 PM ET] The
[3:51:25 PM ET] feature is
[3:51:26 PM ET] really
[3:51:26 PM ET] become
[3:51:26 PM ET] a
[3:51:27 PM ET] must-have in
[3:51:27 PM ET] the
[3:51:27 PM ET] PC
[3:51:28 PM ET] C
[3:51:28 PM ET] industry.
[3:51:29 PM ET] The computer
[3:51:29 PM ET] screen the feature has really become a must have in the pc industry
[3:51:29 PM ET] has
[3:51:29 PM ET] a
[3:51:29 PM ET] redesigned
[3:51:30 PM ET] software
[3:51:31 PM ET] interface
[3:51:31 PM ET] optimized for
[3:51:32 PM ET] touch. It's
[3:51:32 PM ET] priced
[3:51:33 PM ET] the computer has a redesigned software interface optimized for touch it's priced from
[3:51:33 PM ET] from
[3:51:35 PM ET] $2,899 for the
[3:51:35 PM ET] 14
[3:51:36 PM ET] 14-inch
[3:51:36 PM ET] version to the
[3:51:38 PM ET] two thousand eight hundred ninety nine bucks for the fourteen inch version
[3:51:38 PM ET] 3,399
[3:51:39 PM ET] for
[3:51:39 PM ET] the
[3:51:39 PM ET] 16-inch
[3:51:39 PM ET] inch
[3:51:40 PM ET] model.
[3:51:41 PM ET] Denise
[3:51:41 PM ET] Pellegrini
[3:51:41 PM ET] to three thousand three hundred ninety nine for the sixteen
[3:51:41 PM ET] Bloomberg
[3:51:42 PM ET] Radio. The
[3:51:42 PM ET] stories
[3:51:43 PM ET] that
[3:51:43 PM ET] moved
[3:51:43 PM ET] markets
[3:51:44 PM ET] today.
[3:51:45 PM ET] model denise pellegrini bloomberg radio the stories that moved markets today earnings
[3:51:45 PM ET] Earnings from the
[3:51:45 PM ET] five of
[3:51:45 PM ET] Mac
[3:51:46 PM ET] Max 7 this
[3:51:46 PM ET] week.
[3:51:47 PM ET] and the insight that will
[3:51:48 PM ET] shape
[3:51:48 PM ET] trading
[3:51:49 PM ET] tomorrow.
[3:51:49 PM ET] from the five of the max seven this week and the insight that will shape
[3:51:50 PM ET] The AI frenzy
[3:51:50 PM ET] has entered
[3:51:52 PM ET] a new
[3:51:52 PM ET] phase.
[3:51:52 PM ET] The Bloomberg business
[3:51:53 PM ET] trading tomorrow the ai frenzy has entered a new
[3:51:53 PM ET] Week Daily
[3:51:54 PM ET] Podcast with Carol
[3:51:55 PM ET] Masser
[3:51:55 PM ET] and Tim
[3:51:56 PM ET] Stanovak.
[3:51:57 PM ET] phase the bloomberg business week daily podcast with carol masser and tim
[3:51:57 PM ET] Big Pharma in the
[3:51:57 PM ET] news again. Two

--
Saidwire · verified quotes, live transcript and a running story from live events · support@saidwire.com